Poll

How did the money arrive on Tena Bar

River Flooding
1 (5%)
Floated to it's resting spot via Columbia river
2 (10%)
Planted
6 (30%)
Dredge
11 (55%)
tossed in the river in a paper bag
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 17

Voting closed: August 16, 2016, 09:05:28 AM

Author Topic: Tena Bar Money Find  (Read 1511355 times)

Offline snowmman

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6480 on: September 11, 2021, 01:50:08 PM »
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No “proof” of anything really. I think a no-pull is more likely because as Keith said in the interview an open canopy would get hung up in the river and would be more visible. A no-pull would be more likely to remain out of sight.

why would an open canopy get snagged? If it opened, cooper survived, and he may have gathered up the canopy and hidden it. If it was a water landing, and somehow cooper survived and escaped the harness, yes it's likely he didn't gather up the open canopy. Same, if he drowned.

if cooper opened, I'm guessing the odds are more in favor of him landing on land, than water.

I suppose with the found money near water, it increases the likelihood of a water landing for cooper, but if the money was ripped off on exit, then maybe the money landing near water, doesn't mean cooper is necessarily prone to landing in water.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2021, 01:54:15 PM by snowmman »
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6481 on: September 11, 2021, 01:50:18 PM »
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Agreed. The timing of the jump is weakest of the evidence. I believe Tosaw was right all along and that Cooper jumped closer to the Columbia. He no pulled near the riverbank. His body and/or the money lay there all winter undetected and then was picked up by flood water the following May/June.


There's no evidence to suggest a no-pull, right? that's just speculation. Just as likely he pulled.

Unless you're saying someone would have seen a canopy if deployed that night near Columbia?
 I'm not sure about that

There is nothing to "prove" either a pull or no-pull.  You have to look at all the possibilities to develop a likely scenario.
As I have said before, Bob, our respective theories are virtually identical. The only difference is where along the river Cooper landed.

Chaucer, you mean we actually agree on something?  I'm going into shock! :o  I may need to get my meds adjusted. ::)
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6482 on: September 11, 2021, 01:54:13 PM »
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The flight path does not have to be to the west for my hypothesis to work.

Yes, it does. 

I have to disagree with the fellow you talked with about what happens when the river makes a sharp turn as it does just west of the I-5 bridge.  First, what makes the river water stop going west and start going north?  It is the Oregon bank that turns the water to the north and that means there is going to be a lot of pressure and erosion on that bank.  That is also the probable reason the shipping channel is on the Oregon side of the river.  The water depth would be greater on the Oregon side and dredging the shipping channel to its 40 foot depth would not require as much digging.

It is interesting to note that the fellow also indicated that very little paper made it to the beaches from the river water.  And based on my visits to Tena Bar, very little debris of any kind accumulated there.  I have other comments on this subject but I think you already know most of them.

My comments on the river flow are based in part on my experiences as a pre-teen during which I spent several summers swimming in a tributary of the Columbia River (about three miles from the Columbia itself) and about 200 miles upstream of Tena Bar.   
I can only respond by saying that this gentleman is literally an expert on marine debris along the Columbia River and is eminently more qualified to speak on that issue than you are. If you choose to dismiss his highly educated statement, then feel free.
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6483 on: September 11, 2021, 01:54:37 PM »
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No “proof” of anything really. I think a no-pull is more likely because as Keith said in the interview an open canopy would get hung up in the river and would be more visible. A no-pull would be more likely to remain out of sight.

why would an open canopy get snagged? If it opened, cooper survived, and he may have gathered up the canopy and hidden it. If it was a water landing, and somehow cooper survived and escaped the harness, yes it's likely he didn't gather up the open canopy. Same, if he drowned.

if cooper opened, I'm guessing the odds are more in favor of him landing on land, than water.

I agree that if Cooper jumped in the Tena Bar area with an open canopy then the odds favor (maybe 60 to 40) him touching down on land.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6484 on: September 11, 2021, 01:55:05 PM »
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Agreed. The timing of the jump is weakest of the evidence. I believe Tosaw was right all along and that Cooper jumped closer to the Columbia. He no pulled near the riverbank. His body and/or the money lay there all winter undetected and then was picked up by flood water the following May/June.


There's no evidence to suggest a no-pull, right? that's just speculation. Just as likely he pulled.

Unless you're saying someone would have seen a canopy if deployed that night near Columbia?
 I'm not sure about that

There is nothing to "prove" either a pull or no-pull.  You have to look at all the possibilities to develop a likely scenario.
As I have said before, Bob, our respective theories are virtually identical. The only difference is where along the river Cooper landed.

Chaucer, you mean we actually agree on something?  I'm going into shock! :o  I may need to get my meds adjusted. ::)
Truly. The only difference in our opinion on the case is that you think he landed on Caterpillar Island, and I think he landed further upstream.
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6485 on: September 11, 2021, 01:56:37 PM »
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The flight path does not have to be to the west for my hypothesis to work.

Yes, it does. 

I have to disagree with the fellow you talked with about what happens when the river makes a sharp turn as it does just west of the I-5 bridge.  First, what makes the river water stop going west and start going north?  It is the Oregon bank that turns the water to the north and that means there is going to be a lot of pressure and erosion on that bank.  That is also the probable reason the shipping channel is on the Oregon side of the river.  The water depth would be greater on the Oregon side and dredging the shipping channel to its 40 foot depth would not require as much digging.

It is interesting to note that the fellow also indicated that very little paper made it to the beaches from the river water.  And based on my visits to Tena Bar, very little debris of any kind accumulated there.  I have other comments on this subject but I think you already know most of them.

My comments on the river flow are based in part on my experiences as a pre-teen during which I spent several summers swimming in a tributary of the Columbia River (about three miles from the Columbia itself) and about 200 miles upstream of Tena Bar.   
I can only respond by saying that this gentleman is literally an expert on marine debris along the Columbia River and is eminently more qualified to speak on that issue than you are. If you choose to dismiss his highly educated statement, then feel free.

I'm not dismissing his statement.  I'm just saying that my experience and observations indicate otherwise.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6486 on: September 11, 2021, 01:58:56 PM »
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No “proof” of anything really. I think a no-pull is more likely because as Keith said in the interview an open canopy would get hung up in the river and would be more visible. A no-pull would be more likely to remain out of sight.

why would an open canopy get snagged? If it opened, cooper survived, and he may have gathered up the canopy and hidden it. If it was a water landing, and somehow cooper survived and escaped the harness, yes it's likely he didn't gather up the open canopy. Same, if he drowned.

if cooper opened, I'm guessing the odds are more in favor of him landing on land, than water.

I suppose with the found money near water, it increases the likelihood of a water landing for cooper, but if the money was ripped off on exit, then maybe the money landing near water, doesn't mean cooper is necessarily prone to landing in water.
The snagging of the chute would occur when it was being carried down the river.

There are scenarios where Cooper opened the chute and still died - a tree landing including impalement for example.

I don't think Cooper ended up in the river that night. The diatom analysis doesn't support it. I think it is more likely he no-pulled and his body ended up in the brush along the northern riverbank.
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Offline Chaucer

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6487 on: September 11, 2021, 01:59:49 PM »
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The flight path does not have to be to the west for my hypothesis to work.

Yes, it does. 

I have to disagree with the fellow you talked with about what happens when the river makes a sharp turn as it does just west of the I-5 bridge.  First, what makes the river water stop going west and start going north?  It is the Oregon bank that turns the water to the north and that means there is going to be a lot of pressure and erosion on that bank.  That is also the probable reason the shipping channel is on the Oregon side of the river.  The water depth would be greater on the Oregon side and dredging the shipping channel to its 40 foot depth would not require as much digging.

It is interesting to note that the fellow also indicated that very little paper made it to the beaches from the river water.  And based on my visits to Tena Bar, very little debris of any kind accumulated there.  I have other comments on this subject but I think you already know most of them.

My comments on the river flow are based in part on my experiences as a pre-teen during which I spent several summers swimming in a tributary of the Columbia River (about three miles from the Columbia itself) and about 200 miles upstream of Tena Bar.   
I can only respond by saying that this gentleman is literally an expert on marine debris along the Columbia River and is eminently more qualified to speak on that issue than you are. If you choose to dismiss his highly educated statement, then feel free.

I'm not dismissing his statement.  I'm just saying that my experience and observations indicate otherwise.
Fair enough. Again, I will allow his expert opinion to prevail.
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Offline snowmman

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6488 on: September 11, 2021, 02:00:51 PM »
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I don't think Cooper ended up in the river that night. The diatom analysis doesn't support it. I think it is more likely he no-pulled and his body ended up in the brush along the northern riverbank.

well, that would be interesting, if the diatom analysis could be definitely used to predict nopull or pull.
 

Offline snowmman

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6489 on: September 11, 2021, 02:02:18 PM »
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I don't think Cooper ended up in the river that night. The diatom analysis doesn't support it. I think it is more likely he no-pulled and his body ended up in the brush along the northern riverbank.

well, that would be interesting, if the diatom analysis could be definitely used to predict nopull or pull.

But if the money separated from Cooper on exit, then the money diatom analysis is surely independent of pull or nopull. So there's no real way to definitely connect diatom analysis with pull/nopull.

it's very unlikely the bag stayed attached to cooper?
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6490 on: September 11, 2021, 02:07:39 PM »
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I don't think Cooper ended up in the river that night. The diatom analysis doesn't support it. I think it is more likely he no-pulled and his body ended up in the brush along the northern riverbank.

well, that would be interesting, if the diatom analysis could be definitely used to predict nopull or pull.


But if the money separated from Cooper on exit, then the money diatom analysis is surely independent of pull or nopull. So there's no real way to definitely connect diatom analysis with pull/nopull.

it's very unlikely the bag stayed attached to cooper?
I think we may be talking about two different things.

The money left the plane attached to Cooper. Certainly, it could become detached from Cooper after that. Whether Cooper was a pull or no-pull is independent of the diatom findings unless you are saying Cooper ended up in the river that night with the money still attached to him. According to the diatom analysis the money did not get wet that night - whether it was attached to Cooper or not.
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Offline snowmman

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6491 on: September 11, 2021, 02:53:42 PM »
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The money left the plane attached to Cooper. Certainly, it could become detached from Cooper after that. Whether Cooper was a pull or no-pull is independent of the diatom findings unless you are saying Cooper ended up in the river that night with the money still attached to him. According to the diatom analysis the money did not get wet that night - whether it was attached to Cooper or not.

ah okay.
if the money didn't get that wet that night, then what had to happen in the next couple months, so that the money was preserved as discovered in 1980?

And whatever happened, apparently you're saying it didn't have any diatom attachment, come with it?

EDIT: another interpretation is that the diatom experiments aren't as strong an indicator as presented.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2021, 02:55:05 PM by snowmman »
 

Offline georger

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6492 on: September 11, 2021, 03:07:11 PM »
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I don't think Cooper ended up in the river that night. The diatom analysis doesn't support it. I think it is more likely he no-pulled and his body ended up in the brush along the northern riverbank.

well, that would be interesting, if the diatom analysis could be definitely used to predict nopull or pull.


But if the money separated from Cooper on exit, then the money diatom analysis is surely independent of pull or nopull. So there's no real way to definitely connect diatom analysis with pull/nopull.

it's very unlikely the bag stayed attached to cooper?
I think we may be talking about two different things.

The money left the plane attached to Cooper. Certainly, it could become detached from Cooper after that. Whether Cooper was a pull or no-pull is independent of the diatom findings unless you are saying Cooper ended up in the river that night with the money still attached to him. According to the diatom analysis the money did not get wet that night - whether it was attached to Cooper or not.

The diatoms Tom found seem to be endemic to the whole Columbia region; Portland-Vancouver. Im guessing the population is different in the northern Washougal. So, the 'toms found seem to indicate exposure in the Portland-Vancouver water basin.

Diatom exposure requires contact with water. People assume the bills were in some container, and if that's true that may offer a small barrier to water-diatom exposure at least until the bundles are freed from their container ?  But, the bills are packaged as bundles wrapped with straps or bands or both. That packaging means that interior bills are never directly exposed to diatom bearing water. And that is exactly what Tom found:

"The inner degraded edge where the SEM samples were taken from showed no accumulations, suggesting the bills had congealed into a solid lump (consistent with the condition that the bills were found in), preventing any further diatom infiltration ..."     

That result is important because it suggests diatom exposure happened only after some months or years after the hijacking. It took time (months/years) for the bills to congeal into a solid lump, as found by the Ingrams. Once congealed into a solid mass diatoms can only infiltrate at the edges of the bundles - with few or no diatoms found in the interior area of bills. Likewise, the areas of the bills that lack diatom evidence suggest these bundles never 'fanned out' in a diatom rich environment to leave diatoms in the interior portions of the bills.

Since diatoms were only found at the edges of the bills, that implies diatom exposure happened only after the bills were congealed masses, or during the time the bills were congealing. That establishes a clock on when diatom exposure happened. Based on that evidence, diatom exposure happened months or years after the hijacking.

There is no direct way to date when the exposure to diatoms happened. Diatoms dont come with a birth certificate! They only come with a seasonal time stamp. In his King-5 interview Tom  says the diatoms he found are SPRING diatoms. In his research paper he says they are SUMMER diatoms. The predominate diatom found, asterionella formosa, overlaps Spring and Summer by a month or more, so either classification is correct. But, do not omit the several other seasonal diatoms that were also found! One case of any Fall diatom is important. That shows the bills were exposed to at least one Fall diatom somewhere in its history.

In addition Tom makes a NEW concession finally: he concedes, "Dredging operations took place on the river ... and the sand dumped on Tena Bar ... could have contributed to additional sand being on top of the bills'. That is a large concession on Tom's part, finally after years of saying the dredging and Ingram find had no connection whatever because of the distance between the two sites. Water flows south to north at Tena Bar. Tom is finally acknowledging that fact!     
« Last Edit: September 11, 2021, 03:19:11 PM by georger »
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6493 on: September 11, 2021, 03:32:22 PM »
Quote
if the money didn't get that wet that night, then what had to happen in the next couple months, so that the money was preserved as discovered in 1980?
I would hypothesize that the money remained packed inside the money bag on the ground over the winter months. Then the flood waters transported the money bag to Tena Bar where the money spilled out and was fully exposed to the river water before being buried.

Quote
EDIT: another interpretation is that the diatom experiments aren't as strong an indicator as presented.
This is also possible, but I’m not knowledgeable enough on the subject to comment. I have to accept Tom’s research until other data is presented that contradicts it.
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Offline snowmman

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Re: Tena Bar Money Find
« Reply #6494 on: September 11, 2021, 03:46:47 PM »
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Quote
if the money didn't get that wet that night, then what had to happen in the next couple months, so that the money was preserved as discovered in 1980?
I would hypothesize that the money remained packed inside the money bag on the ground over the winter months. Then the flood waters transported the money bag to Tena Bar where the money spilled out and was fully exposed to the river water before being buried.

Quote
EDIT: another interpretation is that the diatom experiments aren't as strong an indicator as presented.
This is also possible, but I’m not knowledgeable enough on the subject to comment. I have to accept Tom’s research until other data is presented that contradicts it.

ok. I guess that works.