fcastle

Send me a PM on what questions you want in a poll. make sure they are Yes or No questions...

I'll send some questions to you in the next few days.  Polls can get real complex.  I've got a decent amount of experience in designing surveys, administering, and analyzing.  My conclusion from that experience is that people tend to over complicate polls. Ours can be pretty simple like the ones you've done before.  We can do yes/no, or percentage, like the "Did he live/die" poll you guys ran a few years ago.

Any feedback from the group on the major questions? And, would a yes/no be better than a 1 out of 10 etc?  For instance, I would say yes he lived, but that is not 100%, maybe 95%.  But for the Tina Bar money, there are a lot more choices than lived/died.

I like the Citizen Sleuths site and how they broke things out:

Did Cooper die in the jump?  It is a huge public debate if Cooper died in the jump or not. Experienced skydivers say he would have died if it was his first jump but if he was an expert, no problem. One experience parachutist believed that anyone who had six or seven practice jumps could accomplished the jump. The cold weather may or may not have killed him in the woods even if he landed ok. No body or parachute was ever found. Debate factor* = 9 of 10

Was Cooper an experienced skydiver?  He requested "front and back parachutes" = novice. He turned down instructions on how to use the parachute = experienced. He picked the non-steerable military parachute = novice. The military chute could better withstand the exit speed of the plane = experienced. He put the parachute on like he knew what he was doing = experienced. He took the reserve chute that was sewn closed and non-functional = novice. Debate factor = 7 of 10

The Tena Bar money find is problematic because it is 20 miles away from the town of Ariel, Washington where the drop zone analysis completed in 1971 said he jumped. In order to get the money on to Tena Bar, several theories are in play. First is the Washougal Washdown Theory, based on the idea that the money had to wash first down smaller rivers, then into the Columbia River in order to end up on Tena Bar. Second is that the FBI flight path was incorrect and Cooper actually landed on Tena Bar and buried the money. Third is that Cooper or someone else buried the money on Tena Bar to throw off the FBI. Debate factor = 10 of 10

The "Palmer Report" stemmed from the FBI bringing in Portland State University geologist Dr. Leonard Palmer to analyze the sand bar where the money was found. In between the 1971 hijacking and the 1980 money find, the Columbia River was dredged and sand was deposited on Tena Bar in 1974. Palmer's report determined that the money was in a layer of top sand laid down by the dredging. This implied that the money was somewhere else upstream for years before coming to rest on Tena Bar. The counterpoint was that the delicate rubber bands were still intact on the bundles when found. The bands pointed to an earlier time frame for the money coming to rest on Tena. Debate factor = 9 of 10

Where was the real flight path?  The flight path map in the FBI archive has no information on who drew the flight path or when it was created. The flight path as drawn is thought to be from the detailed analysis of radar data and flight recorder discussed in the FBI transcripts. The FBI path does NOT fly over Tena Bar or the Washougal area. The money found on Tena Bar forces the flight path debate because it would be much easier to explain the money find if Cooper flew over Tena Bar and jumped, or flight #305 flew over the Washougal River and Cooper's ransom money ended up washing down stream. Debate factor = 7 of 10

How did three loose bundles of money stay together for years and then get buried together? Several possibilities have been put forth. The bank bag protected them for years in the river and then rotted away before the bills did. Cooper lost the money when he landed on Tena Bar in the dark. Someone else buried the money there. Debate factor = 5 of 10

Was Cooper from the area? He recognized Tacoma from the air = local. He would be an idiot to hijack an airplane where he could possibly be recognized = not local. He made the very unusual request for "negotiable American currency" unlike most Americans = not from this country. Debate factor = 3 of 10

How did the money degrade around the edges and get holes in them? Roots, tumbling downstream, dredging? Debate factor = 3 of 10

Are any of the current crop of suspects the real D.B. Cooper? Debate factor = 13+ of 10

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...I personally like the polls, especially when I first joined.  I feel that once you've been on here for a while, you kind of get an idea of who thinks what, but I would be curious to see a breakout of the main posters on here (maybe 20 to 30 of us) and what they think of the main categories.  Just for fun, even though most of us probably already know how our colleagues feel, for instance, EU and R99 are into the Western Flight Path, but listening to Bruce on the Cooper Vortex, it sounds like he's warming up to it.  Updated polls might be cool (but only from registered members).

Lived or died?
How money got to Tina Bar?
Did he spend the money?
Which flight path?
Was he experienced in aviation?
Did he work at Boeing?
Particles on the tie?

Castle, here's how I'd place my bets from my a $100 stake.

1. Lived: $50.
2. Money at T-Bar: $10, (buried by DBC)
3. Spend any? $5
4. WFP: $20
5. Av experience: $5 (pilot, etc.)
6. Boeing? $5
7. Particles. $5 (in terms of the particles originating from DBC's lifestyle or work)

I'd also wager other bets, from my winnings above:

1. DBC was a commando: $50.
2. Sanctioned op:             $25
3. Stayed hidden in a SOG-like environment afterwards: $20
4. Never asked about it: $5.

Extra Credit, or Doubled Down:

1. Did DBC have an extraction team?    $50.
2. How many on the team?                  $25 on 4.
3. Was McCoy part of it?                      $25 on "Yes."

I think I'd clear $500 from y'all... smile....

Bruce: I like the approach of what you'd do with $100.  I worked with an old timer Marine who was in Vietnam, and then got his PhD in something like statistics or economics.  He would give focus groups $100 in poker chips and ask them to do the same type of exercise.  This would tease out which areas they were most passionate about.  Just off the cuff, this is my $100

Lived or died?  Lived: $40
How money got to Tina Bar? Due to the shards, I'll go dredge, but only $5
Did he spend the money?  Some of it: $30
Which flight path? Standard FBI path: $10
Was he experienced in aviation? Yes, aircrew, mechanic maybe, but not pilot or engineer: $15

Did he work at Boeing? No. No bet.
Particles on the tie? I like EU's approach with the sand/salt used for melting.  I think the particles are not as rare as is advertised.  I focus on the higher percentages.  I'd say it could be from many industrial settings.  No bet, except to say I don't think it came from some fancy project.

My big ones are: He lived, he spent some of the money, he knew some things about aviation/parachutes, just enough to be dangerous.  I still don't see the commando angle, he'd be too old for all the Vietnam era shenanigans (although some guys could do it in their 40's, that stuff is a young man's game).

Other big questions: What time did he jump, and where did he land?  My guess is 8:12, and landed between Battle Ground and Orchards.  But, seeing we have not found him, or most of the money, then anything is on the table.  I feel I could argue many angles, so for me I like the chase and the discussion.  I almost don't want this to be solved.

Lived or died?  Lived...$30
How money got to Tena Bar? Buried by DBC Nov. 24, 1971...$30
Which flight path? Western Flight Path...$30
Experienced in aviation? Yes...$9
Spend the money?  No...$1

Did he successfully get under an open parachute? Yes - $98
The rest of it? I don't know $0
The other 2 bucks, I'll buy a lottery ticket for the next jackpot over $300 mil.

I agree w Dudeman. All Cooper had to do was pull the ripcord and he would descend under an open non steerable round canopy. Since his life literally depended on it, and it was a simple task, I do think he pulled. Even if he were wildly tumbling a pull would likely result in a fully open canopy. How do I know that? Because I did it many times before learning how to freefall stable. No AFF in 1968. No tandems. You did 5 static line jumps then unassisted freefall. You had to teach yourself. I was scared to death that pulling in a wild uncontrolled tumbling spin would result in a malfunction but it never did. What a huge relief finally figuring out freefall stability. Those pulls during tumbles were really scary.

I agree w Dudeman. All Cooper had to do was pull the ripcord and he would descend under an open non steerable round canopy. Since his life literally depended on it, and it was a simple task, I do think he pulled. Even if he were wildly tumbling a pull would likely result in a fully open canopy. How do I know that? Because I did it many times before learning how to freefall stable. No AFF in 1968. No tandems. You did 5 static line jumps then unassisted freefall. You had to teach yourself. I was scared to death that pulling in a wild uncontrolled tumbling spin would result in a malfunction but it never did. What a huge relief finally figuring out freefall stability. Those pulls during tumbles were really scary.

377,

What are the chances that the money tied to his body would cause asymmetry and result in an uncontrollable spin? 

The thing is that some of the money (25%) had to come out of the bank bag to be repacked in the dummy reserve. This puts the weight divided evenly between the two. Strapping these items to the shroud-line belt DBC crafted puts his weight into balance. Nothing asymmetric about the load.

I believe Cooper jumped with the money bag, the dummy reserve with 50K inside, and the attache' case. All of these things would have been attached via the shroud line belt and would have been positioned in front of his crotch and lower thighs.

The glow of the metro Portland area was visible, so Cooper did have a visual reference. Also, he jumped with the NB6 packed with a 28' conical (yes, over sized for the container.)

Every other person who jumped survived--why not Cooper. Nothing has ever been found indicating he died. No one was reported missing.

Finally, the diatoms tell a story. They tell us that the three straps of cash could not have been buried by wave action because the diatoms are too fragile. Indeed, the straps were submerged in Columbia River water, then buried in a non-aggressive manner. And they were buried at a depth whereby they stayed buried for 8 years.