I can't comment on the flight path, the winds, or the likelihood of his landing in the water. But as for the parachute control... If he's under the non steerable chute, he has negligible control and is at the mercy of the winds. If he effected the four line release mod described above (with his knife), he would have perhaps 3-4 mph of drive/control to work with, if that. If he did land in the water, that would be extremely problematic for him. That canopy does not release from the harness. Unless he had his knife in his hands when he landed, it would be extremely difficult to get to. If the canopy lands on top of him, that's a problem. If there are ground winds and he's being drug through the water, that's a problem. Getting out of the harness while flopping about in the water would be difficult, especially with whatever else he might have had tied to him. 377, would that harness have B-12's on the leg straps? If so, that might make it a bit easier to get out of. (Those are snaps that undo the leg straps, as opposed to having to loosen them and pull your legs out of them.)