I'm including a map showing the location of the path (blue line) you can see it barely reaches the tip of Hayden island. the green line is V-23, and the straight red line is the distance from the path to Smith lake which is a little over 3 miles, or 2.62 Nautical miles. the map was made by Snowmman

It's a little too far west to have hit this water hole. the odds are greater for the Columbia where the plane obviously crossed. Smith lake is surrounded by rivers, why pick this area? why exclude surrounding waters?

This is of course if the path is correct. even if I give an error of .5, it still can't reach the area....

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so, if there was a no pull jump at say 20:17:30 between the waypoints, on the black path, close to I5 on Hayden, as the path turned south, a 200lb object would travel for 26 seconds and 1.24 miles straight at Smith Lake. I know these maps are not great and the position between the waypoints is an extrapolation.

It looks like about 1.5 miles..

The release of the NWA papers to the WSHM a few months back indicates that the airliner was actually at Tualatin at 8:18 PM PST.  That point is 25 DME miles (nautical miles) from what is now the Battleground VORTAC and about 14 DME miles further south than the point indicated on your attached map for 8:18.

The paper copy of that report was transmitted through the ARINC teletypewriter system and time stamped at 8:22 PM.  The voice call from the airliner to the ARINC system was patched through to the NWA office at SEA and one report indicates it was actually made at 8:18 PM which fits the overall situation much better.

Interesting, I was just indicating the south turn in the flight path on the map. Is there an issue with the flight path near I5 and Hayden Island between the points?

In order for the airliner to be at the 25 DME mile point south of the present day Battleground VORTAC at 8:18 PM (as it said it was), it would have to take a direct short cut from about Toledo to that point.  That means it would bypass Portland on the west side and fly almost directly over Tina Bar.  I don't think the flight crew would fly over Portland under any circumstances with a bomb on board and a warning from the FAA Chief Psychologist that Cooper would probably blow up the airliner when he jumped.

Isn't this exactly what Dawson said the path was - straight line btwn Toledo and the tip of Hayden Island ?

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The distance from the tip of Hayden to I5 is approx. 1.3 miles. the plane doesn't cross I5 until it's too late for the Smith lake landing. the distance from I5 to Smith lake is approx. 1.3 miles.

It's a possibility, but the odds are low if you go by the map. the black lines where made by the FBI, and the green is what Sluggo copied over if I'm correct.

If we go by Carr stating they claimed the bump was felt around 5-10 minutes after the last contact with Cooper which was 8:05. this gives a time frame of no later than 8:15.

No cars were left at any airports. I believe they covered that. we have no proof Cooper knew where he was. that's the difference between Cooper, and McCoy. Cooper never asked anything about altitude, wind, location, nothing. McCoy stayed on top of things like he was a co-pilot. 

The area in question is a National Preserve. one can expect people around often. if Cooper was at the bottom, or the money was at the bottom. I doubt the flooding would cause it to surface. odds are low again that it was lying around the area waiting to be moved by a flood?

Snowmmans map is direct lines connecting the waypoints, it is not the actual flightpath, it would have been smoother taking it closer to I5.. Was it close enough??? IDK we don't have data in between the waypoints. It looks real close. Smith Lake was intentionally flooded "closed" in the winter and released in the summer. It likely had the high water level in the winter, but I am trying to get info for '71. The Willamette slough flows in and out (controlled) or did. The lake edges are not really explorable by foot, it is a wetland/marsh explorable by canoe. The shoreline is really not well explored.. Anybody have a spare cadaver dog handy and a canoe,,, j/k

If a body did impact a marsh, I am sure it would be buried in the bottom. It isn't very deep. The rotting/movement or yearly flood/release process could loosen some money. About a 6 mile float to TBAR. YES, this is theoretical.. so far

video
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Are there any pilots that can comment on the potential flight path between those waypoints..

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The distance from the tip of Hayden to I5 is approx. 1.3 miles. the plane doesn't cross I5 until it's too late for the Smith lake landing. the distance from I5 to Smith lake is approx. 1.3 miles.

It's a possibility, but the odds are low if you go by the map. the black lines where made by the FBI, and the green is what Sluggo copied over if I'm correct.

If we go by Carr stating they claimed the bump was felt around 5-10 minutes after the last contact with Cooper which was 8:05. this gives a time frame of no later than 8:15.

No cars were left at any airports. I believe they covered that. we have no proof Cooper knew where he was. that's the difference between Cooper, and McCoy. Cooper never asked anything about altitude, wind, location, nothing. McCoy stayed on top of things like he was a co-pilot. 

The area in question is a National Preserve. one can expect people around often. if Cooper was at the bottom, or the money was at the bottom. I doubt the flooding would cause it to surface. odds are low again that it was lying around the area waiting to be moved by a flood?

Snowmmans map is direct lines connecting the waypoints, it is not the actual flightpath, it would have been smoother taking it closer to I5.. Was it close enough??? IDK we don't have data in between the waypoints. It looks real close. Smith Lake was intentionally flooded "closed" in the winter and released in the summer. It likely had the high water level in the winter, but I am trying to get info for '71. The Willamette slough flows in and out (controlled) or did. The lake edges are not really explorable by foot, it is a wetland/marsh explorable by canoe. The shoreline is really not well explored.. Anybody have a spare cadaver dog handy and a canoe,,, j/k

If a body did impact a marsh, I am sure it would be buried in the bottom. It isn't very deep. The rotting/movement or yearly flood/release process could loosen some money. About a 6 mile float to TBAR. YES, this is theoretical.. so far

video
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Are there any pilots that can comment on the potential flight path between those waypoints..

There was no reason for the flight path between the Toledo area to the DME point south of Portland being anything other than a straight line.  In order for the airliner to be at that DME point at 8:18 PM, it would have had to pass over Tina Bar approximately six minutes earlier or about 8:12 PM which is one of the predicted jump times.

Keep in mind that these times are given in whole minutes.  If more accurate times, such as those on the ATC transcripts were available, these times could be refined and stated in minutes and seconds thereby increasing the accuracy of the estimated aircraft positions.

Also remember that earlier versions of the Tina Bar area topographical maps described the area between the eastern shore of the Columbia River and the eastern shore of Caterpillar Island as "mud flats".  That area has now been dredged and a marina in located in it.

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The distance from the tip of Hayden to I5 is approx. 1.3 miles. the plane doesn't cross I5 until it's too late for the Smith lake landing. the distance from I5 to Smith lake is approx. 1.3 miles.

It's a possibility, but the odds are low if you go by the map. the black lines where made by the FBI, and the green is what Sluggo copied over if I'm correct.

If we go by Carr stating they claimed the bump was felt around 5-10 minutes after the last contact with Cooper which was 8:05. this gives a time frame of no later than 8:15.

No cars were left at any airports. I believe they covered that. we have no proof Cooper knew where he was. that's the difference between Cooper, and McCoy. Cooper never asked anything about altitude, wind, location, nothing. McCoy stayed on top of things like he was a co-pilot. 

The area in question is a National Preserve. one can expect people around often. if Cooper was at the bottom, or the money was at the bottom. I doubt the flooding would cause it to surface. odds are low again that it was lying around the area waiting to be moved by a flood?

Snowmmans map is direct lines connecting the waypoints, it is not the actual flightpath, it would have been smoother taking it closer to I5.. Was it close enough??? IDK we don't have data in between the waypoints. It looks real close. Smith Lake was intentionally flooded "closed" in the winter and released in the summer. It likely had the high water level in the winter, but I am trying to get info for '71. The Willamette slough flows in and out (controlled) or did. The lake edges are not really explorable by foot, it is a wetland/marsh explorable by canoe. The shoreline is really not well explored.. Anybody have a spare cadaver dog handy and a canoe,,, j/k

If a body did impact a marsh, I am sure it would be buried in the bottom. It isn't very deep. The rotting/movement or yearly flood/release process could loosen some money. About a 6 mile float to TBAR. YES, this is theoretical.. so far

video
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Are there any pilots that can comment on the potential flight path between those waypoints..

It would have been an area not searched or probably not even considered. If he augured in there 3 minutes later all there is is a few bubbles, potentially. The money and Cooper could sit there until as late as the end of the drought of '78 then with the heavy rains and flooding things are set lose to move ... but one attractive thing in this theory is a remote place right in the middle of an urban setting and a place where a body might auger in and not be noticed.

What happens to his chute?

hey, I am still trying to figure out IF he could have landed there,,

There was work done in there over the years and the two lakes are connected to the rivers affected by tides and river levels, a direct float to TBAR is possible,

That lake isn't very deep, more like a marsh,  an impact might bury a body and unopened chute many feet into the bottom. There was some dredging dumped into it, as well as channels made.. but hard to really pin down levels and work timelines.

more general info,,

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Flyjack,

Have you ever noticed that physics books ignore the atmosphere when discussing such things as bombs being dropped from aircraft, artillery fire, and everything else that involves horizontal motion in the atmosphere?  And that these same books include the atmosphere when they discuss only vertical motion in the atmosphere.

The reason for the above is that vertical motion only is easily handled mathematically by a slide rule or by hand.  But adding ANY horizontal motion to the problem produces a fourth-order quadratic equation (or some such thing) that requires something such as a Cray Supercomputer to produce meaningful results.

For parachutists, jumping from about 10,000 feet and at about 225 MPH (195 Knots) as Cooper did, the rule of thumb for a falling body (unopened parachute) is that all forward motion will be cancelled out after about 1250 feet of forward travel.  Then the body will fall vertically but will be influenced by any horizontal wind that exists.

If a parachutist descends from 10,000 feet in a stable "skydiver horizontal spread" without opening his parachute, he will be on the ground (and dead) in about 60 seconds.  His speed at ground contact would be about 120 MPH.

If a parachutist descends from 10,000 feet in a stable head-straight-down position without opening his parachute, he will be on the ground (and dead) in about 40 seconds or less.  His speed at ground contact would be about 180+ MPH.

Back about 2009, I did some calculations about what would happen to Cooper's aerodynamics when he tied the money bag to himself.  Basically, the volume and weight of the money bag, plus other things Cooper had (such as his raincoat), would balance each other to keep his speed in a head first straight down fall to about the 180+ MPH mentioned above.  And Cooper's "configuration" would probably stabilize him in a head first fall.

So Cooper had about 40 seconds at most from the time he separated from the stairs to open his parachute.  There is no evidence that he did so.  This was probably Cooper's first actual jump and all of the events probably caused him to become disoriented and he lost track of time.  If Cooper was a no-pull, the canopy is probably still in the pack.

Further, if you have access to a Cray Supercomputer, preferably more than one, and a staff of programmers and operators to run it, plus someone to pay the bills, please PM me as fast as possible.

Robert99

Yes, I agree, I found this out when trying to find a formula.. it gets extremely complex with the variables, known and unknown. I tried to be conservative with the calculation.

The purpose was not really "precision" but a probability that he could have landed in Smith Lake given the FBI flightpath, if 26.3 sec flight time is a conservative lower bound and you found 40 sec as a possible upper bound, that is 1.4 to 2.17 miles forward travel making it possible for him to land in Smith Lake using the original FBI flightpath over Hayden..  What really makes this "theory" interesting is that there could be something still there unlike a landing in the Columbia and it isn't expensive to run a cadaver dog over that area.

Though, I used 170 knots per the crew communication, not 195..

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Flyjack,

Have you ever noticed that physics books ignore the atmosphere when discussing such things as bombs being dropped from aircraft, artillery fire, and everything else that involves horizontal motion in the atmosphere?  And that these same books include the atmosphere when they discuss only vertical motion in the atmosphere.

The reason for the above is that vertical motion only is easily handled mathematically by a slide rule or by hand.  But adding ANY horizontal motion to the problem produces a fourth-order quadratic equation (or some such thing) that requires something such as a Cray Supercomputer to produce meaningful results.

For parachutists, jumping from about 10,000 feet and at about 225 MPH (195 Knots) as Cooper did, the rule of thumb for a falling body (unopened parachute) is that all forward motion will be cancelled out after about 1250 feet of forward travel.  Then the body will fall vertically but will be influenced by any horizontal wind that exists.

If a parachutist descends from 10,000 feet in a stable "skydiver horizontal spread" without opening his parachute, he will be on the ground (and dead) in about 60 seconds.  His speed at ground contact would be about 120 MPH.

If a parachutist descends from 10,000 feet in a stable head-straight-down position without opening his parachute, he will be on the ground (and dead) in about 40 seconds or less.  His speed at ground contact would be about 180+ MPH.

Back about 2009, I did some calculations about what would happen to Cooper's aerodynamics when he tied the money bag to himself.  Basically, the volume and weight of the money bag, plus other things Cooper had (such as his raincoat), would balance each other to keep his speed in a head first straight down fall to about the 180+ MPH mentioned above.  And Cooper's "configuration" would probably stabilize him in a head first fall.

So Cooper had about 40 seconds at most from the time he separated from the stairs to open his parachute.  There is no evidence that he did so.  This was probably Cooper's first actual jump and all of the events probably caused him to become disoriented and he lost track of time.  If Cooper was a no-pull, the canopy is probably still in the pack.

Further, if you have access to a Cray Supercomputer, preferably more than one, and a staff of programmers and operators to run it, plus someone to pay the bills, please PM me as fast as possible.

Robert99

Yes, I agree, I found this out when trying to find a formula.. it gets extremely complex with the variables, known and unknown. I tried to be conservative with the calculation.

The purpose was not really "precision" but a probability that he could have landed in Smith Lake given the FBI flightpath, if 26.3 sec flight time is a conservative lower bound and you found 40 sec as a possible upper bound, that is 1.4 to 2.17 miles forward travel making it possible for him to land in Smith Lake using the original FBI flightpath over Hayden..  What really makes this "theory" interesting is that there could be something still there unlike a landing in the Columbia and it isn't expensive to run a cadaver dog or sonar over that area.

Though, I used 170 knots per the crew communication, not 195..

Im not sure about your '1.4 to 2.17 miles forward travel'.  The skydivers at DZ used 1200 feet (forward throw).


Quoted from R99's above: "To repeat, assuming a no-pull situation, Cooper's forward motion down the airliner's track would be reduced to zero within about 1250 feet (with respect to the air mass), and his descent would be straight down (actually parabolic) thereafter except as influenced by the winds aloft which would blow him slightly to the northeast."

A no-pull would account for no parachute seen. However, let's assume he does get the chute open and still lands in this area (extended timeline allowing) - he is still is potentially in a 'sticky' situation ... up to his ass in marsh!   He might have had to separate himself from the money container to get himself out? Or, lets assume a partial chute opening - that scenario is a virtual no-pull at a slower velocity but he is still up to his neck in muck ... and maybe injured or dead.