Poll

How did the money arrive on Tena Bar

River Flooding
1 (5%)
Floated to it's resting spot via Columbia river
2 (10%)
Planted
6 (30%)
Dredge
11 (55%)
tossed in the river in a paper bag
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 17

Voting closed: August 16, 2016, 09:05:28 AM

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Author Topic: Tena Bar Money Find  (Read 1267034 times)

MeyerLouie

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2805 on: April 16, 2017, 07:09:49 PM »
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Wow, I'm actually causing the problem... didn't know.  Dividing lines help me see where one person stops and another begins more better.  The imbedded boxes get so imbedded at times so that the print is too small for me to see (I'm visually challenged, remember).  How about if I just hit the reply button, like I did here?

Meyer

Just try not to let them run across the screen too far.
are you using the "zoom" feature on your browser, you can enlarge the text that way, and if you have done this it could be why you are overshooting?

I just look for the last "
" thingy in brackets, and start my reply after that?

Here's a screenshot of the reply window showing everything -
[/quote]

Okay, will do.  Meyer
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Offline Kermit

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2806 on: April 17, 2017, 01:11:49 PM »
I did say I would drop by the Ariel store and I was only planning on driving by to see if anything was happening there. However as I was pulling up and parking on the left side of the store, Brian Woodruff was pulling up and he greeted me. He was very pleasant and invited me inside and showed me around. I ended up buying a Cooper Days T Shirt from him. I sure hope that he gets the place fixed up so I can attend a gathering with the Cooperites.
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Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2807 on: April 17, 2017, 04:32:35 PM »
It'd be great to see you at the next Cooper Daze. It's a fantastic party.
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Offline 377

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2808 on: April 17, 2017, 04:59:20 PM »
R 99 wrote: "If Cooper landed in the river itself, he would have retained enough floatability to drift downstream of Tina Bar before daylight.  It must be remembered that people were at Tina Bar on a daily basis."

Not necessarily. In that awful B-25 jump disaster over Lake Erie many jumpers sank quickly with all their gear. You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

377
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georger

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2809 on: April 17, 2017, 06:03:45 PM »
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R 99 wrote: "If Cooper landed in the river itself, he would have retained enough floatability to drift downstream of Tina Bar before daylight.  It must be remembered that people were at Tina Bar on a daily basis."

Not necessarily. In that awful B-25 jump disaster over Lake Erie many jumpers sank quickly with all their gear. You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

377

what gear?

which River? Washougal, Columbia, Lewis, or Amazon?  :))
« Last Edit: April 17, 2017, 06:04:03 PM by georger »
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Offline 377

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2810 on: April 17, 2017, 06:53:06 PM »
Ski Gear, Amazon River, wasn't that obvious Georger?  ;)

Conjure up some sunspots for me will ya? Propagation is pretty pathetic lately.

73,
377
« Last Edit: April 17, 2017, 06:53:42 PM by 377 »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2811 on: April 17, 2017, 10:58:54 PM »
we don't have any proof of Cooper landing in the Columbia, but I don't think it would be crazy for his body to disappear just as others have, even with people in the area bodies still go missing. I remember a case where several jumpers went into the river, and one was never found.
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Offline 377

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2812 on: April 18, 2017, 07:33:20 PM »
Georger once did a crude but logical calculation assessing the odds of DBC actually landing in the Columbia River. As I recall it was unlikely, but low probability doesn't mean impossible. Plenty of jumpers have drowned and submerged after landing in water.

377 
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georger

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2813 on: April 18, 2017, 11:42:24 PM »
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Georger once did a crude but logical calculation assessing the odds of DBC actually landing in the Columbia River. As I recall it was unlikely, but low probability doesn't mean impossible. Plenty of jumpers have drowned and submerged after landing in water.

377

That prior assessment was P expressed as a function (ratio of) land vs water over the whole area of V23 to the Columbia River, but the more refined the drop zone gets the better a probability can be assessed ... if that all makes sense. The closer the dz is to the Columbia basin the higher the probability gets that he might have landed in a watery area... which is common sense. :))   
« Last Edit: April 18, 2017, 11:43:57 PM by georger »
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MeyerLouie

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2814 on: April 19, 2017, 12:13:31 AM »
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Georger once did a crude but logical calculation assessing the odds of DBC actually landing in the Columbia River. As I recall it was unlikely, but low probability doesn't mean impossible. Plenty of jumpers have drowned and submerged after landing in water.

377

That prior assessment was P expressed as a function (ratio of) land vs water over the whole area of V23 to the Columbia River, but the more refined the drop zone gets the better a probability can be assessed ... if that all makes sense. The closer the dz is to the Columbia basin the higher the probability gets that he might have landed in a watery area... which is common sense. :))   


And it would seem logical to assume that probability would be quite small -- no matter how you slice it.  True, the probability gets better as the dz gets closer to the River.  But it can be like the probability of winning the pick-6-out-of-40 lottery if you buy one ticket versus buying 100 tickets.  The probability of winning with 1 ticket is about .0000003.  With 100 tickets, the probability of winning would be about .00003.  While the probability has increased dramatically with buying 100 tickets, you still have a ghost of a chance and just a little better than a ghost of a chance of winning.  Which doesn't mean you can't win .... there have been scores of winners over the past 30 years.  A ghost of a chance is still a chance, however slim.  So, Cooper could have ended up in the Drink, as remote as that might seem.  We need that nugget of hard evidence that will dramatically tip the scale in favor of actually knowing what really happened to Cooper.
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georger

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2815 on: April 19, 2017, 12:18:40 AM »
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Georger once did a crude but logical calculation assessing the odds of DBC actually landing in the Columbia River. As I recall it was unlikely, but low probability doesn't mean impossible. Plenty of jumpers have drowned and submerged after landing in water.

377

That prior assessment was P expressed as a function (ratio of) land vs water over the whole area of V23 to the Columbia River, but the more refined the drop zone gets the better a probability can be assessed ... if that all makes sense. The closer the dz is to the Columbia basin the higher the probability gets that he might have landed in a watery area... which is common sense. :))   


And it would seem logical to assume that probability would be quite small -- no matter how you slice it.  True, the probability gets better as the dz gets closer to the River.  But it can be like the probability of winning the pick-6-out-of-40 lottery if you buy one ticket versus buying 100 tickets.  The probability of winning with 1 ticket is about .0000003.  With 100 tickets, the probability of winning would be about .00003.  While the probability has increased dramatically with buying 100 tickets, you still have a ghost of a chance and just a little better than a ghost of a chance of winning.  Which doesn't mean you can't win .... there have been scores of winners over the past 30 years.  A ghost of a chance is still a chance, however slim.  So, Cooper could have ended up in the Drink, as remote as that might seem.  We need that nugget of hard evidence that will dramatically tip the scale in favor of actually knowing what really happened to Cooper.

well said -   :)

More interesting might be an assessment of the odds that (a) Cooper survived and carried the money to the Columbia area, vs. (b) the money got to the Columbia area by natural means - assuming the FBI Drop Zone is correct. Hashing that out forces one to consider alternatives, if there are any.  :)

Given there are no known means of conveyance' by natural means' from the Ariel area DZ, that forces either a high P that Cooper survived and walked himself to the Columbia with the money then something happened (which is the Kaye Hypothesis), or ......................   or what! ?????  :))
« Last Edit: April 19, 2017, 12:27:02 AM by georger »
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Offline Kermit

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2816 on: April 19, 2017, 12:58:58 AM »
Does anyone know the name of the 2 hunters that found the placard ? I have a friend who was an avid hunter and his Dad owned a cabin right on the Toutle river. He presently lives in Kelso. I don't live too far from Toutle. I think I'd love to go to the exact spot where the placard was found. Off topic just a bit but I NEVER went hunting without a compass and a altimeter in case something happened as nobody wants to get lost in,deep woods in the winter. These are 2 tiny objects that a prepared Cooper would be likely to have on him. JMHO
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georger

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2817 on: April 19, 2017, 01:15:17 AM »
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Does anyone know the name of the 2 hunters that found the placard ? I have a friend who was an avid hunter and his Dad owned a cabin right on the Toutle river. He presently lives in Kelso. I don't live too far from Toutle. I think I'd love to go to the exact spot where the placard was found. Off topic just a bit but I NEVER went hunting without a compass and a altimeter in case something happened as nobody wants to get lost in,deep woods in the winter. These are 2 tiny objects that a prepared Cooper would be likely to have on him. JMHO

Someone here has those names and the gps coords of the find ... good points. Kaye met with those guys and supposedly they took him to where they found the placard...
« Last Edit: April 19, 2017, 01:17:16 AM by georger »
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georger

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2818 on: April 19, 2017, 04:00:04 PM »
The flight path vs money find - the principles argue the case.

Between about Oct 26th and 30th 1012, a full-fledged discussion broke out with all the principles participating at Drop Zone. In no particular order they were: Hominid, Farflung, Shutter, Robert99, Smokin99, etc. Each stated their views and argued their analysis of the flight path and the money find.

Interestingly, in spite of the fact several people accept the NWA/FBI path path as basically accurate,  nobody took the position that Cooper survived a jump near Ariel and then made his way south to Vancouver where he somehow lost the money, some of which was later found in 1980 at Tina Bar. I guess there are no data points on that theory for people to hang their hats on.

But I recommend reading these posts centered around You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login  in order to get a solid grounding in the whole flight path vs money affair.  Good luck!  :)
« Last Edit: April 19, 2017, 04:08:41 PM by georger »
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Offline Kermit

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Re: Tina Bar Money Find
« Reply #2819 on: April 19, 2017, 05:07:56 PM »
To any outdoorsman familiar with the area, there is no reason to believe he perished because of the weather. Perhaps I'm the only one to believe it but the weather wasn't all that bad. No snow, no ice storm and no violent winds. Like I said before, I've delivered mail in far worse weather than that night in my 28 years of carrying mail in the Portland area ! I always wore wool socks and wool underwear and I never was cold when hunting in extreme cold. I'm sure many don't believe but I have stories and photos to prove my point ! As far as how the Money ended up at Tina Bar, that's anyone's guess! I'm only giving my opinion as to could he survive.
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