My confidence level in my theory is 95+ percent. Basically, the money at Tina Bar could not have gotten there by any other means. Robert99
You have pointed out inconsistencies, contradictions and missing info for the FBI flightpath. However, no smoking gun to prove the TBAR path vs FBI path. The other issue is logic and human nature. Not knowing how the money got to TBAR suggests another flightpath. This is false logic.
If the money were never found at TBAR would you have a 95% confidence in that flightpath? In other words, a search to reconcile the unknown is part of human nature but not necessarily true. We all do it.
If Cooper did lose some of the money on the stairway and it fell off minutes later into the Columbia (in the briefcase or tied up in a piece of the chute) that would explain and reconcile TBAR and the FBI flightpath. There may be another explanation that we don't know.
I am not discounting your theory as an option but I have far less confidence in it. There is still stronger evidence for the FBI flightpath.
Take out the TBAR money find and where do we stand on the fightpath options..
The money find at Tina Bar, in and of itself, supports the flight path. This has been discussed to death for the last several years both here on Shutter's site, the DropZone sites, and elsewhere. Also, the location where the placard from the aft stairs was found also generally supports the Tina Bar flight path. In addition, the markings on the "FBI map", that have been previously discussed, supports the Tina Bar flight path. All aircraft that initially tried to intercept the airliner in the Portland area were vectored to the west side of Portland.
Does the fact that the money was not found at Ariel give you confidence in the FBI flight path?

NO PILOT WOULD HAVE FLOWN THAT HIJACKED AIRLINER IN THE SEGMENTED FLIGHT PATH INDICATED ON THE FBI MAP!!!!! Or to put it another way, there is absolutely NO evidence to support the FBI flight path.
If some of the money fell from the aft stairs, it would probably have landed in downtown Vancouver.
The money find at Tina Bar is a fact, the location where the placard was found is a fact, and you do not get to cherry pick your facts and theories. The money at Tina Bar was found several feet higher than the nominal Columbia River water level. How do you explain that?
The money find at Tina Bar is the single most important piece of information as to where Cooper jumped, whether he was a no-pull, where he landed, and the subsequent moving of the money to Tina Bar. All of this has been discussed at great length previously. Further, Mother Nature did it all, except for explaining why Cooper was a no-pull.