Good post Georger!. Nice to see rational discussions of physical evidence rather than personal snipes etc.
Palmer was no dummy. This was right in his area of expertise. His on-site observations and conclusions that were contemporaneous with the money find have to be given some serious weight. Could he have made an error? Sure, but he wasn't shooting from the hip. He looked at sedimentation layers, analysed their content and came to some reasoned conclusions.
If there was, as reported by some, a large shard field of currency pieces it rules out my wacky theory that Brian was subtly led to his campfire find site by those who put the loot there.
Haven't been jumping during the winter. In my crazy youth I jumped in very cold weather, even in hail once (unintentionally). As I got older and wiser I started asking myself why jump when it's so damned cold? Now I just watch crazy BASE wingsuit jumps on YouTube and wait for spring and summer.
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The problem I have with the Palmer Report is Palmer doesn't say anything about erosion or mixing of his layers. Not one word. We are left to assume the layers he found were static over time and well defined - had not mixed one into the other. And he stresses 'the money did not work its up to the top from a lower layer'. He says, 'the money had to have arrived with the last water event and is in the upper active layer (only)'. He then goes on to say maybe more money (fragments) would be found downstream, but there is no indication anyone looked downstream at any distance north of the Ingram find.
I believe Palmer's Layer No.2 may be key to this whole problem. That is the cross-bedded layer approx 4-8" deep or deeper, which separates Palmer's clay-sand mix layer from the upper active layer at the surface. This cross bedded layer is a clock and took time to lay down; it represents successive water events and mixed layers of sands which took time to form (years). One crucial question Palmer does not address is: 'were dredge sediments (clay-sand) mixed in with the cross-bedded layer? Palmer is firm that the money did not work it's way up from the dredging layer to the surface, but if dredging clay was mixed into the cross bedded layer that would represent mixing of sort which might bring something in the surface of the 74 dredging layer being worked through upper layers, as it worked its way north from the dredging pile through successive water events over time? Palmer says this did not happen, but he does not address the issue of "mixing".
If the upper active layer represents sand deposited from say Dec78 to Jan79 as Palmer suggests, then the cross-bedded layer below the surface layer has to represent the period from Dec78 to September 1974. That would be more than enough time to form a cross bedded layer representing years of many water events and mixing.
We don't know that vertical and lateral erosion was equal at all points along the beach, south-to-north. Moreover, Palmer does not tell us if his layer #1 and #2 were of equal thickness at the Ingram site vs the site 25 yards south of the Ingram site. All he tells us is that the "dredging layer" was 2ft thick at the Ingram site vs 4+ feet thick 25 yrds south of the Ingram site. But, Palmer doesn't address how layers #1 and #2 varied in thickness at these two sites. So, once again, we really don't have a handle on the mount of mixing and erosion at various points along Tena Bar, which has always been my major criticism of the Palmer Report.
My suspicion is there was greater erosion and movement of material on the southern part of Tena Bar vs further north near the Ingram site. If there was unequal erosion south-to-north, that offers the possibility that while a bundles of money may not have 'worked their way up' through the layers, they may have "migrated" from the surface of the dredging spoils at one date, then moved north in a series of movements, always being somewhat near the surface, while other layers were being assembled (around or below them!). That kind of movement could explain fragments being found, north to south at different depths from the surface down to -3 or -4 feet as strata over the dredging layer was changing and being assembled around, below, and then over the Ingram bundles through time. But, we have no easy way to test this because Palmer does not tell us the thickness of layers #1 and #2 at his 25 yard south location, that we can compare to the Ingram site north of the original dredging pile. All Palmer tell us is that his dredging layer #3 was 2 feet thick near the Ingram site and (predictably thicker) 4 feet thick 25 yards further south closer to the original dredging pile where we know spreading occurred.
A strict non-mixing interpretation of Palmer is that the money arrived between Dec 1978 and January 1979, to be discovered in February 1980.