Author Topic: Suspects And Confessions  (Read 1563317 times)

Robert99

  • Guest
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #780 on: March 05, 2015, 02:37:34 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Olem, Kaye's propeller 'remark' was just that, an impromptu remark in the face of cameras, and never intended to be a serious theory. I dont think it dawned on Tom or Carr that it would get the airplay it did! Tom can speak for himself but that is my understanding (and belief based on Tom's explanation to me, and I believe him!  :)).

Well that's very good to know because I respect Kaye's work a lot!

Quote
Cooper's descent that night was probably a nearly blind descent, based on the weather, his lack of control of the chute, and the altitude where it starts.

This is a question for Robert, who appears to be this board's resident parachutist, but there a few things I'm wondering about the jump itself. If he had pulled his chute immediately after jumping at that height, it would have taken him what, ten minutes to fall to earth? In that time, in the high winds that were alleged that night, how far would he expect to drift away from the spot directly below him when he first jumped out? Are we talking miles of drift? A few hundred yards?

It's my understanding that most sport parachutists will release the chute at around 1,000 feet so they aren't floating around in the sky for 15 minutes, but if you were in DB's situation with solid cloud cover below you and an uncertain altitude (I'm assuming DB didn't really know how high they were, he just trusted the crew to follow his instructions), would you risk a sustained free fall or would you release your chute almost immediately just to be on the safe side?

Also, being a parachutist, can you "feel" your altitude? What I mean is, if you were in DB's shoes standing on the stairs, could you tell the difference in 5,000ft-10,000ft-15,000 ft in the middle of a cloudy storm with almost zero visibility.

Again, let me be brutally honest! Smile...  :)  The issue of the weather is debated? Smile :)  R99 thinks the weather is a simple matter and a closed book. I guess it is fair to say 'there are myths and facts about the weather that night'. So, depending on whatever WX scenario you bring into play, the drop account changes accordingly. High winds? That is debated. R99 will point out the WX stats are plain and simple and do not allow for the high winds some insist was the case. When all of this was discussed endlessly at Dropzone, I think drift was finally placed at somewhere around 4 miles? A dead-fall scenario happens in seconds (60-80)? Time to ground depends on time of opening, winds, drift vs. free fall, etc.   ...   

OMC,

There are a number of people on this thread whose parachuting experience is VASTLY greater than mine.  And I will defer to them on all parachuting and skydiving questions.  Perhaps 377, who is also an attorney, will comment on the "feel" question about altitude.

When Cooper jumped, the airliner was doing about 225 MPH True Airspeed (which is with respect to the air surrounding it) and at about 10,000 feet Above Sea Level (as specified by Cooper although he didn't say "ASL").  The airliner was almost certainly very close to the Columbia River, which is just a few feet ASL in the Portland area.  Portland International Airport is adjacent to the Columbia River and its altitude is listed as 30 feet ASL.  So Cooper had slightly less than 10,000 feet of terrain clearance below him when he jumped.

If Cooper successfully deployed the canopy immediately after separating from the airliner, he would have done so at about the top speed for which the canopy was rated (actually, 225 MPH may well have been higher than its maximum rated opening speed) and Cooper would have received the highest opening shock possible under the circumstances.  As Georger has pointed out above, when last seen Cooper was tying the approximately 25 pound money bag around his waist (as opposed to attaching it to the parachute harness) and could have received up to a 250 pound jerk on his spine from the money bag alone and that would have been bad news.

But if Cooper did get an open canopy successfully at 10,000 feet and 225 MPH, he would have descended at about 1200 feet per minute and drifted to the northeast and towards higher terrain.  The aft stairs placard, which separated from the airliner a few minutes before Cooper jumped, was found at an elevation of about 1500 feet ASL.  So Cooper could have had about 7 or 8 minutes of descent time.  How far he travelled horizontally during that descent depends on the winds from the surface to 10,000 feet.

And as Georger has also pointed out above, the winds and other weather for the Portland area during the time the airliner was passing through is a matter of disagreement.  The actual measured and recorded weather that evening does not support the idea of a violent storm.  Nevertheless, some people claim there was a storm.

When Cooper jumped, he was above an overcast and there were several cloud layers below the overcast.  So if he decided to free fall to a lower altitude before opening, there is a high probability that he would have become disoriented (he had no horizontal or other references) and started tumbling with further disorientation.  And if he was a no-pull, he would have been on the ground (and dead) about 40 to 60 seconds after leaving the airliner.

Did Cooper separate from the money bag during the descent?  At the present time, no one can prove this point either way.  But I suspect, based on a number of factors including where the money was found and its elevation above sea level, that Cooper and the bag stayed together all the way down.  Keep in mind that those shroud line have a strength of about 550 pounds each.  So if Cooper was a former Boy Scout and paid attention during his knot tying training, there is a good chance he retained that money bag.





 

Offline Olemisscub

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 125
  • Thanked: 12 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #781 on: March 05, 2015, 03:08:16 PM »
Great answer!

So your belief that he was a no-pull is that when he leapt from the plane the money bag around his waist would have jolted pretty heavily from the initial wind shock and damaged or disoriented him to the point that he never pulled. Interesting for sure.

Also, popular depictions always show him jumping from the plane with his shades on. Surely if he jumped with his shades on they would have been ripped from his head immediately, right? I'm guessing goggles/eye protection are really only necessary in that they allow you to look around during a freefall and aren't really necessary if you just jump and pull?
 

Robert99

  • Guest
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #782 on: March 05, 2015, 03:20:19 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Great answer!

So your belief that he was a no-pull is that when he leapt from the plane the money bag around his waist would have jolted pretty heavily from the initial wind shock and damaged or disoriented him to the point that he never pulled. Interesting for sure.

Also, popular depictions always show him jumping from the plane with his shades on. Surely if he jumped with his shades on they would have been ripped from his head immediately, right? I'm guessing goggles/eye protection are really only necessary in that they allow you to look around during a freefall and aren't really necessary if you just jump and pull?

The jolt to the spine would have been if he had immediately opened after stepping off the stairs.  Cooper also had a medium sized paper bag with him.  While its actual contents are not known, it may or may not have contained goggles.  But goggles are necessary if you are going to be doing any serious looking around during a free fall.
 

Offline Olemisscub

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 125
  • Thanked: 12 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #783 on: March 05, 2015, 03:39:12 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The jolt to the spine would have been if he had immediately opened after stepping off the stairs.

Ah, because at that moment he would have been flying through the air at the same speed as the plane. So his easiest path to a normal pull would have been to get free of the plane a good bit, stabilize, begin a natural free fall, and then pull.

But you think he never pulled, so if it wasn't the bag killing him on the pull, then what did him in?
 

Robert99

  • Guest
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #784 on: March 05, 2015, 03:54:16 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
The jolt to the spine would have been if he had immediately opened after stepping off the stairs.

Ah, because at that moment he would have been flying through the air at the same speed as the plane. So his easiest path to a normal pull would have been to get free of the plane a good bit, stabilize, begin a natural free fall, and then pull.

But you think he never pulled, so if it wasn't the bag killing him on the pull, then what did him in?

Basically disorientation and loss of time awareness.  Remember he didn't have any visual cues initially.  Everything was black and he was probably tumbling.  He wasn't dressed for the weather and the initial wind chill factor would have been about 35 degrees below zero.  Maybe he couldn't even find the ripcord.  It just wasn't his evening. 
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1025 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #785 on: March 05, 2015, 04:32:28 PM »
Some people just have the nerve to jump. it took me a minute to find this guys chute  ;D

Pre-1925


 

Offline andrade1812

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 624
  • Thanked: 144 times
    • My Website
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #786 on: March 05, 2015, 08:51:47 PM »
I've spent the last couple of months looking at nighttime bailouts by RAF bomber crews during WWII. The survival rate was higher than 91% if the crewman got out of the plane. For American daytime crews, the survival rate was over 96%. No pulls were very rare, in fact, I couldn't find one report of a crew that bailed out and one of them no-pulled. I did find examples of bodies that were found with unopened parachutes, but it can't be known if the men were conscious or not when they left their aircraft. (Interestingly enough, I did find several examples of men who were knocked unconscious and woke up in free fall, and pulled; there were also several men who received severe head injuries before jumping, and pulled their rip cords). Lancaster crews faced many difficulties jumping, including cold, bad weather, and a lack of experience (and in many cases, training) in parachuting.

In skydiving, it is relatively easy to find examples of no-pulls. The main reason, from what I can infer, is that skydivers are doing things during their jumps, instead of just trying to survive. I went through a decade's worth of no-pull deaths in skydiving, and about half the time the no-pulls are caused by skydiving-related distractions (videotaping, demo jumps, group formations, instructors trying to save students), health issues, or suicides. Deaths caused by "True" no-pulls are extremely rare.

To assume Cooper no-pulled because of disorientation or inability to find the rip cord has always been to assume a highly improbable event.

Now, getting jerked around by that 20lb bag of money, having a heart issue, having a canopy failure, all are much more likely.

 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1025 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #787 on: March 05, 2015, 09:16:43 PM »
That's assuming our friend had experience? I'm still not sure he did. if he didn't he wouldn't have a clue what to do after leaving the plane. he could of thought, how hard can it be to jump out of a plane?

If he jumped out not knowing the force, and he did spin. he might of went into a panic. it's speculation of course.....I read a lot where they say he could of made it. then I also hear jumpers not all agreeing he didn't spin, or he didn't make it....

If the flight path is 100% accurate, he obviously made it. if the course, or timing is off, it's possible he's laying out there somewhere, or floated away down the Columbia. Cooper sounded more educated with the aircraft vs skydiving.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 11:34:16 PM by shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1025 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #788 on: March 05, 2015, 09:21:39 PM »
I think this would be a good question for Matthewcline. Robert99 is strong on the spin, how many others think the same?

I just noticed we are in suspects and confessions. we are drifting off....
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 09:24:03 PM by shutter »
 

Offline andrade1812

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 624
  • Thanked: 144 times
    • My Website
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #789 on: March 05, 2015, 09:25:40 PM »
RAF crews weren't parachutists at all, and their level of training varied. Some were given no training at all, some were told only the basics of attaching the parachute and pulling after they were clear of the airplane. That's why I like them as a Cooper analogue.

Quote
If the flight path is 100% accurate, he obviously made it. if the course, or timing is off, it's possible he laying out there somewhere, or floated away down the Columbia.

But great segue into Project 305's latest mission  ;)
 

Offline Olemisscub

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 125
  • Thanked: 12 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #790 on: March 05, 2015, 09:28:00 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
That's assuming our friend had experience?

But what qualifies as experience? I would bet a very large amount of money that the overwhelming majority of flight crews who bailed out during WWII had never actually parachuted before they were forced to.  Now I'm sure all of these men had some training on their parachutes, but I bet it was extremely basic (here is how you put it on and here is what you pull), and it was probably the same amount of training that our friend had if he were former military. Tina did say that he seemed comfortable putting on the chute, didn't she?
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1025 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #791 on: March 05, 2015, 09:29:05 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
RAF crews weren't parachutists at all, and their level of training varied. Some were given no training at all, some were told only the basics of attaching the parachute and pulling after they were clear of the airplane. That's why I like them as a Cooper analogue.

Quote
If the flight path is 100% accurate, he obviously made it. if the course, or timing is off, it's possible he laying out there somewhere, or floated away down the Columbia.

But great segue into Project 305's latest mission  ;)


Sure, that's our whole mission of the project, trying to verify, or debunk  :P
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1025 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #792 on: March 05, 2015, 09:34:29 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
That's assuming our friend had experience?

But what qualifies as experience? I would bet a very large amount of money that the overwhelming majority of flight crews who bailed out during WWII had never actually parachuted before they were forced to.  Now I'm sure all of these men had some training on their parachutes, but I bet it was extremely basic (here is how you put it on and here is what you pull), and it was probably the same amount of training that our friend had if he were former military. Tina did say that he seemed comfortable putting on the chute, didn't she?

I guess I'm basing this on your average criminal, or someone with limited military service, meaning not having any jump experience, but obtaining knowledge thinking he know's enough. asking for front and back chutes puzzles me. the clothes he wore, and the shoes. some say a smoke jumper did it. would a smoke jumper dress like that?


I believe flight crews went through training?
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 09:36:31 PM by shutter »
 

Offline Olemisscub

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 125
  • Thanked: 12 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #793 on: March 05, 2015, 09:34:40 PM »
Another thing too: It would seem that he would surely have had some experience with parachutes just to even come up with the scheme. If I had never skydived before and had never put on a chute, I'm probably going to rob a bank instead because I sure as hell know how to drive a car really fast, so I'm comfortable with that.

Granted, one of the copycats had to be shown had to put on a chute, but still...
 

Offline Olemisscub

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 125
  • Thanked: 12 times
Re: Suspects And Confessions
« Reply #794 on: March 05, 2015, 09:37:48 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
I guess I'm basing this on your average criminal, or someone with limited military service, meaning not having any jump experience, but obtaining knowledge thinking he know's enough. asking for front and back chutes puzzles me. the clothes he wore, and the shoes. some say a smoke jumper did it. would a smoke jumper dress like that?

I suppose he could have had skydiving apparatuses in the bag he carried on the plane, so maybe he changed shoes before he jumped? Maybe he had an old school leather helmet in his bag? Or gloves? Or goggles? Tina last saw him what, 20 minutes before he jumped?