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[georger]

Thanks, Robert.

It struck me that had she been able to continue her journey west from Hawaii (and I presume still stop at Howland Island), the distance is closer to 1700 miles instead of 2600 miles and would have given her more time to find Howland.  Then, the 2600 mile leg back to Lae would not have been as difficult a location to find.  Going east caused a very long flight leg to a target easy to miss.  Continuing west would have been more likely to succeed.

The article Shutter posted above says Earhart's last transmission based on signal strength was about 100 miles from Howland.  Given the panic in her voice, it seems unlikely she could have made it to either Gardner or the Marshall Islands.  Both Earhart and the people on the ground seem to believe she was near Howland -- not wildly off course.

How much fuel did she have left at Howland? She said she was running low.

Her radio issues were her undoing.

[Robert99]

Thanks, Robert.

It struck me that had she been able to continue her journey west from Hawaii (and I presume still stop at Howland Island), the distance is closer to 1700 miles instead of 2600 miles and would have given her more time to find Howland.  Then, the 2600 mile leg back to Lae would not have been as difficult a location to find.  Going east caused a very long flight leg to a target easy to miss.  Continuing west would have been more likely to succeed.

The article Shutter posted above says Earhart's last transmission based on signal strength was about 100 miles from Howland.  Given the panic in her voice, it seems unlikely she could have made it to either Gardner or the Marshall Islands.  Both Earhart and the people on the ground seem to believe she was near Howland -- not wildly off course.

I completely agree with you that if the west bound attempt had made it to Howland, then the leg to Lae would have been quite easy.  On the westerly attempt from Honolulu to Howland, there were four people on board including another highly qualified navigator who was experienced in using the specific radios that were installed on the aircraft.  Those radios were the original ones that were installed by Lockheed during the construction of the airliner.  They were used to home in on Honolulu during the flight from Oakland.  Paul Mantz, a highly qualified pilot, was the fourth person on board.  Only Earhart and Noonan were to continue on to Lae and should not have had any difficulty in making that leg.

The personnel in the radio room of the Itasca at Howland Island reported that at one point the transmissions from Earhart were so strong that they felt they could step out on deck and expect to spot the aircraft visually.

[Robert99]

Thanks, Robert.

It struck me that had she been able to continue her journey west from Hawaii (and I presume still stop at Howland Island), the distance is closer to 1700 miles instead of 2600 miles and would have given her more time to find Howland.  Then, the 2600 mile leg back to Lae would not have been as difficult a location to find.  Going east caused a very long flight leg to a target easy to miss.  Continuing west would have been more likely to succeed.

The article Shutter posted above says Earhart's last transmission based on signal strength was about 100 miles from Howland.  Given the panic in her voice, it seems unlikely she could have made it to either Gardner or the Marshall Islands.  Both Earhart and the people on the ground seem to believe she was near Howland -- not wildly off course.

How much fuel did she have left at Howland? She said she was running low.

Her radio issues were her undoing.

If I can find some free time over the next several weeks, I'll try to do an independent analysis of the Lockheed performance report for the Electra and then try to quantify some of my personal theories of what happened at Howland.  [Hint:  I think they overshot Howland.]  Details at some later date.

[georger]

Bayesian analysis of Earhart flight by Gundars Osvalds - presented a synopsis of a 107- page Systems Engineering paper that he and co-author George Anderson completed in June 2012. You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

In spite of Itasca hearing Earhart at one point they could not engage in any reliable dialogue due to confusions over times, frequencies, antenna issues, etc. According to one report Earhart even removed one long wire antenna because it was difficult reeling it in and out ?  Another antenna may have been broken at takeoff ? There were radio and frequency issues/confusions. There were assigned time and timing issues! Earhart just could engage in any reliable two way communications with anyone at a most critical time and she and Noonan obviously did not 'see' Itasca or Howland in spite of how loud she may have come through on the Itasca radio at one time. It doesn't sound like Earhart ever knew she was being heard - by anyone!   

[Robert99]

Bayesian analysis of Earhart flight by Gundars Osvalds - presented a synopsis of a 107- page Systems Engineering paper that he and co-author George Anderson completed in June 2012. You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

In spite of Itasca hearing Earhart at one point they could not engage in any reliable dialogue due to confusions over times, frequencies, antenna issues, etc. According to one report Earhart even removed one long wire antenna because it was difficult reeling it in and out ?  Another antenna may have been broken at takeoff ? There were radio and frequency issues/confusions. There were assigned time and timing issues! Earhart just could engage in any reliable two way communications with anyone at a most critical time and she and Noonan obviously did not 'see' Itasca or Howland in spite of how loud she may have come through on the Itasca radio at one time. It doesn't sound like Earhart ever knew she was being heard - by anyone!

Georger,

Can this 107 page Systems Engineering paper be downloaded from the Internet?  I haven't been able to get it to turn up on the link you show above or any other links.

You are correct that no meaningful radio connection was ever established between Earhart and the Itasca.  The reason for this may well go back to the original coordination meeting with the Coast Guard and Navy in Washington long before the flight.  It turns out that Earhart did not attend that meeting but George Putnam, her husband, did.  Putnam did not have any aeronautical qualifications and, who knows, may not have even discussed the communications protocols with Earhart.

At one point, Earhart asked the Itasca to reply on a frequency that she should have absolutely known the Itasca did not have.  Earhart also apparently had the habit of transmitting at a certain time after the hour and then listening for a reply 30 minutes later.  Her radio was not a "transceiver" as we know them today.  There was plenty of confusion as to what frequencies she was transmitting on and listening on.

[Robert99]

I saw this too...I'm hoping Robert99 will weigh in.  The Marshall Islands would be quite a long away off course -- unless the plane was found floating and towed to the Marshall Islands.  If this photo was date stamped July 1937, that would really make it interesting.

There is a special this weekend about this (I think maybe on the History Channel), so I'll be curious what they say.

The Earhart special airs on the History Channel, Sunday, July 9th, at 9 PM EDT/6 PM PDT.  The picture on the dock is claimed to be proof that Earhart and Noonan survived.  And the people who make that claim also claim that they have solved the Earhart/Noonan mystery.  Don't bet the farm on it.

[MarkBennett]

This article on the Daily Beast has some interesting Earhart info in it regarding the documentary showing tonight.

A Japanese writer (who edited Newsweek's Japanese edition  -- Newsweek was bought by the Daily Beast) interviewed someone on the ship in the picture as well as a weatherman who served in the area at the time for a book in the early 1980s.  Both basically say the same thing -- they were instructed to rescue Earhart and Noonan if they found them, not capture them.

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[Robert99]

This article on the Daily Beast has some interesting Earhart info in it regarding the documentary showing tonight.

A Japanese writer (who edited Newsweek's Japanese edition  -- Newsweek was bought by the Daily Beast) interviewed someone on the ship in the picture as well as a weatherman who served in the area sometime in the late 1980s.  Both basically say the same thing -- they were instructed to rescue Earhart and Noonan if they found them, not capture them.

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Mark,

Thanks for the link.  The Daily Beast article by Clive Irving is an excellent piece of writing and level-headed research, something that is rarely seen in the Earhart story as well as our own D.B. Cooper universe.

There is nothing at all to suggest that Earhart and Noonan were spying on anyone or anything.  In fact, they would make lousy spies.  An illiterate native fisherman in a row boat would make a more believable spy under the circumstances, and probably obtain better information.

The Earhart "files" do reportedly contain some never released classified information which some writers claim are their "spying assignments" from President Roosevelt.  In all probability, those files contain information about Earhart's extra-martial affair with Gene Vidal, who was head of the Air Commerce Department (now the FAA) in the 1930s.

Although Amelia was married to George Putnam, she wrote him a letter on their wedding day clearly stating that their marriage vows were not binding on either of them.  This matter was touched on in the 2009 movie "Amelia" where Hilary Swank played Earhart.

Gene Vidal had a son named Gore Vidal who went on to make a name for himself as a writer.  I seem to remember Gore Vidal, who died just a few years ago, endorsing Geoffrey Gray's book but cannot find that endorsement right now.

But before marrying Putnam, Amelia reportedly almost married Gene Vidal which would have made Gore Vidal her step-son.  It's a small world after all.

[georger]

This article on the Daily Beast has some interesting Earhart info in it regarding the documentary showing tonight.

A Japanese writer (who edited Newsweek's Japanese edition  -- Newsweek was bought by the Daily Beast) interviewed someone on the ship in the picture as well as a weatherman who served in the area sometime in the late 1980s.  Both basically say the same thing -- they were instructed to rescue Earhart and Noonan if they found them, not capture them.

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Mark,

Thanks for the link.  The Daily Beast article by Clive Irving is an excellent piece of writing and level-headed research, something that is rarely seen in the Earhart story as well as our own D.B. Cooper universe.

There is nothing at all to suggest that Earhart and Noonan were spying on anyone or anything.  In fact, they would make lousy spies.  An illiterate native fisherman in a row boat would make a more believable spy under the circumstances, and probably obtain better information.

The Earhart "files" do reportedly contain some never released classified information which some writers claim are their "spying assignments" from President Roosevelt.  In all probability, those files contain information about Earhart's extra-martial affair with Gene Vidal, who was head of the Air Commerce Department (now the FAA) in the 1930s.

Although Amelia was married to George Putnam, she wrote him a letter on their wedding day clearly stating that their marriage vows were not binding on either of them.  This matter was touched on in the 2009 movie "Amelia" where Hilary Swank played Earhart.

Gene Vidal had a son named Gore Vidal who went on to make a name for himself as a writer.  I seem to remember Gore Vidal, who died just a few years ago, endorsing Geoffrey Gray's book but cannot find that endorsement right now.

But before marrying Putnam, Amelia reportedly almost married Gene Vidal which would have made Gore Vidal her step-son.  It's a small world after all.

Hey guys! Thanks for the info on Earhart's martial & extra marital life!  Thanks!   

[Robert99]

This article on the Daily Beast has some interesting Earhart info in it regarding the documentary showing tonight.

A Japanese writer (who edited Newsweek's Japanese edition  -- Newsweek was bought by the Daily Beast) interviewed someone on the ship in the picture as well as a weatherman who served in the area sometime in the late 1980s.  Both basically say the same thing -- they were instructed to rescue Earhart and Noonan if they found them, not capture them.

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Mark,

Thanks for the link.  The Daily Beast article by Clive Irving is an excellent piece of writing and level-headed research, something that is rarely seen in the Earhart story as well as our own D.B. Cooper universe.

There is nothing at all to suggest that Earhart and Noonan were spying on anyone or anything.  In fact, they would make lousy spies.  An illiterate native fisherman in a row boat would make a more believable spy under the circumstances, and probably obtain better information.

The Earhart "files" do reportedly contain some never released classified information which some writers claim are their "spying assignments" from President Roosevelt.  In all probability, those files contain information about Earhart's extra-martial affair with Gene Vidal, who was head of the Air Commerce Department (now the FAA) in the 1930s.

Although Amelia was married to George Putnam, she wrote him a letter on their wedding day clearly stating that their marriage vows were not binding on either of them.  This matter was touched on in the 2009 movie "Amelia" where Hilary Swank played Earhart.

Gene Vidal had a son named Gore Vidal who went on to make a name for himself as a writer.  I seem to remember Gore Vidal, who died just a few years ago, endorsing Geoffrey Gray's book but cannot find that endorsement right now.

But before marrying Putnam, Amelia reportedly almost married Gene Vidal which would have made Gore Vidal her step-son.  It's a small world after all.

Hey guys! Thanks for the info on Earhart's martial & extra marital life!  Thanks!   

"All the dirt, all the time."  Or has someone already copyrighted that?

[MarkBennett]

I watched the Earhart episode last night.

Quite a contrast with the History Channel's D.B. Cooper documentary.  In that one, they hired another team (Tom Fuentes and Billy Gibbons) to review the case made by Tom Colbert.  In last night's Earhart show, there was a lot of confirmation bias.

If you only watched what was prevented in the show, it's compelling.  But, other than the new photograph, the rest of the evidence all came out many years ago -- some of it after WWII, some of it in the 1960s, some in the 1980s. 

The big lynchpin in the story is Earhart had planned to  search for Howland for a couple of hours and if she didn't find it she knew she still had fuel left to backtrack to somewhere she could land -- they believed she was too far north and as a result hit the Marshall Islands when she backtracked.

Lots of witness accounts -- but no evidence she landed in the Marshalls and was captured.

[377]

Earhart's lack of preparation radio wise was staggering. So many missed opportunities to get it right. Sigh.

377

[boneman]

I watched the Earhart episode last night.

Quite a contrast with the History Channel's D.B. Cooper documentary.  In that one, they hired another team (Tom Fuentes and Billy Gibbons) to review the case made by Tom Colbert.  In last night's Earhart show, there was a lot of confirmation bias.

If you only watched what was prevented in the show, it's compelling.  But, other than the new photograph, the rest of the evidence all came out many years ago -- some of it after WWII, some of it in the 1960s, some in the 1980s. 

The big lynchpin in the story is Earhart had planned to  search for Howland for a couple of hours and if she didn't find it she knew she still had fuel left to backtrack to somewhere she could land -- they believed she was too far north and as a result hit the Marshall Islands when she backtracked.

Lots of witness accounts -- but no evidence she landed in the Marshalls and was captured.

Good synopsis of the show.  While I thought it was a very plausible case being made based on the eyewitness accounts, the evidence found on the island, and the lynchpin scenario you mention...they put way too much weight on the photo.  They (the show) jumped too fast to the conclusion the photo was "proof" she was alive after the crash, and they kept repeating that over and over, even though their own expert said no such thing.  Everything they did after that seemed to be based on this photo evidence, which weakened their case in my view...

That being said, their explanation and other evidence was compelling.

[georger]

Earhart's lack of preparation radio wise was staggering. So many missed opportunities to get it right. Sigh.

377

The photo is compelling, or its a fake?

One issue for me is the Itasca and nobody else apparently, was able to get a fix on Earhart's position at any time. The only report is that at one time Itasca reported a 'very strong signal' so it is assumed she was nearby. (Could have run out on the deck and seen her based on the strong signal) but nobody did see her and she apparently didn't see them.

I dont buy the argument that the Navy hid knowledge of her outcome based on not wanting to reveal they had cracked the Japanese Naval code? Every report Ive ever heard is the Jap Naval code was cracked .... years later not during the Earhart episode. Something doesn't add up; its a convenient excuse and nothing more. I don't think the Navy had the faintest idea what happened to her and all of the other socalled Navy reports are accounts of pure speculation.

Earhart's lack of preparation radio wise was staggering. I fact I heard no reports of her making ANY radio contacts even when she was so close to the Marshals. Evidently her radio wasn't working then either or during the long trip to the Marshals with other ships including American ships operating in the vicinity of the Japanese naval line!

Maybe Amelia landed in South America and spent the rest of her life living with the Nazis?    

*I guess 'running low on fuel' means not enough fuel to get to the Moon ... or Boliva ... or the South Pole? 

[Robert99]

I watched the Earhart episode last night.

Quite a contrast with the History Channel's D.B. Cooper documentary.  In that one, they hired another team (Tom Fuentes and Billy Gibbons) to review the case made by Tom Colbert.  In last night's Earhart show, there was a lot of confirmation bias.

If you only watched what was prevented in the show, it's compelling.  But, other than the new photograph, the rest of the evidence all came out many years ago -- some of it after WWII, some of it in the 1960s, some in the 1980s. 

The big lynchpin in the story is Earhart had planned to  search for Howland for a couple of hours and if she didn't find it she knew she still had fuel left to backtrack to somewhere she could land -- they believed she was too far north and as a result hit the Marshall Islands when she backtracked.

Lots of witness accounts -- but no evidence she landed in the Marshalls and was captured.

Good synopsis of the show.  While I thought it was a very plausible case being made based on the eyewitness accounts, the evidence found on the island, and the lynchpin scenario you mention...they put way too much weight on the photo.  They (the show) jumped too fast to the conclusion the photo was "proof" she was alive after the crash, and they kept repeating that over and over, even though their own expert said no such thing.  Everything they did after that seemed to be based on this photo evidence, which weakened their case in my view...

That being said, their explanation and other evidence was compelling.

Here are a couple of things that are relevant to the radio matter.

Apparently the original radio that was installed on the Lockheed production line and used on the westward attempt was removed during the layover in Miami and a Bendix prototype radio was installed.  Also, the Morse code keypad (mounted to the right of the copilot's seat) was reported to have been removed and shipped to Purdue University.  Bendix was reportedly a financial supporter of the Earhart flight.

Further, both Earhart and Noonan were said to have told people in Lae that they did not know Morse code.  Nevertheless, one individual claimed that he had exchanged Morse code messages with Noonan during the flight into Lae.  The contradictory claims appear to be something straight out of Cooper world.