The early days at Dropzone were some of the best. People were fresh and had fresh insight. One of the best posts, imo, was that of Winsor in response to the idea suggested by Sluggo and others that the Cooper Hijacking was a well oiled plan, a crafted event from a Master. Winsor replied:
winsor (D 13715)
Feb 20, 2008, 8:44 AM
Post #212 of 58140 (70540 views)
Re: [Sluggo_Monster] Take This Plane To Mexico [In reply to]
The idea that Cooper exited anywhere near a planned location does not wash.
For one thing, the routing of an aircraft by ATC is a game of Simon Says. Regardless of what kind of reverse-psychology you think you have dialed in, the likelihood of getting a particular route +/- 5 miles is so low as to be unworthy of consideration.
In the same sense that it is almost impossible for a skilled artist to mimic a child's drawing without it being obvious to the trained eye that it was actually done by a pro, there is a big difference between a seasoned parachutist throwing in enough red herrings to confuse investigators and a clueless neophyte who really has no conception of what is involved. Cooper shows too many signs of being in the latter category.
I have made jumps out of a variety of jets, at altitudes ranging from pattern to Class A, in rain, snow and sleet, and into unlighted dropzones in total darkness carrying heavy loads. I am much better than average at aviation navigation and spotting, with decades of experience in both.
On the basis of the foregoing, when someone proposes a scenario wherein every part of the hijacking was part of a carefully crafted plan, I call bullshit.
If you have things under control, you don't lose money. The money was the whole reason for the exercise, so this is a big red flag that says that it did not go as planned.
All the speculation in this thread that comes from armchair quarterbacks is fine, but has little to do with reality. I keep thinking of Werner Heisenberg's assessment of a student's work: "This isn't right. It isn't even wrong."
Blue skies,
Winsor
(This post was edited by winsor on Feb 20, 2008, 11:24 AM)
I love it!
Excellent! I apparently joined DZ about a year to late. And how is Heisenberg's cat doing these days?
You know I read that at DZ back in '08 and sat here thinking: 'what could I say, what should I say?'. I decided to stay out of it.
What does Heisenberg's cat or more correctly 'Schrödinger's cat' have to do with this? The short answer is: Nothing.
Neither quantum physics or The Heisenberg Principle have any application in this matter. Case closed.
Okay, sorry about that. I'm not a cat lover so I got the owner's name confused. Are you sure quantum physics is not involved here?
Only if Cooper was an electron!
However, similar statistical methods could be used to evaluate the probability of deposition in flow or the probability of jump and landing zone - if enough data were available. Sadly the data is severely lacking for such determinations. That correlation is what interests me and attracts me back to the original NWA poop sheet parameters for their 'probability' search map. That is why Ive always called it a probability map, because that "is" what it is. They said their numbers were processed by a computer, presumably using standard algorithms (formulae) of the day. I dont think they would have mentioned that unless they actually went through that process. That implies they had actual 'data' to work with! They correlated data they had, probably from several sources. That implies a statistical analysis using a computer - which they refer to. That's much more sophisticated than a 'guess'. I posted about this back in 08 at Dropzone but I dont think many people even knew what I was referring to. It would be interesting to process their data using modern statistical methods. But, based on the NWA search chart they produced, I am guessing their original data points had a fairly large uncertainty, ie error factor.
Sluggo wondered if Cooper had keyed on the two large turns in the published flight path, in timing and placing his jump ... knowing he was in V23. See Sluggo's chart attached. Winsor immediately replied saying: "not so fast!" and gave his thoughts on the matter. Sluggo has always been suspicious that Cooper knew what he was doing and had an actual plan. Winsor said, "I dont see evidence of a plan, technically'. Winsor was saying: "I dont see evidence of a technically proficient person's actions in what Cooper actually did". And Winsor is an experienced expert in this matter. Winsor and Guru had very similar observations, if you recall.
But, it always comes back to the data people had to work with at the time. I personally thought Winsor's and Guru's observations were very ... persuasive .... from a technical behavioral point of view. And if I am correct Winsor's analysis fits with the general level of 'uncertainty' that is in the data used to generate the NWA search map, in the first place.
Cooper was not an electron, is the answer.
btw no need to apologise for mixing up Heisenberg vs Schrodinger. It happens all the time even in physics circles.