“Likely” does not mean “definite”.
Each of the difficult conditions and variables decreases Cooper’s chances of survival by a degree. So even if he chance of survival was 90% out of 100. There is still that pesky 10% that people don’t seem to want to entertain. 377 and Andrade along with many others are convinced he survived. I’ve heard from experienced skydivers who are say that was a difficult jump for anyone and especially for someone with little experience.
Anyways, this is the wrong thread for that discussion.
I'm not sure I agree with your model of how "difficulty" couples to survival probability.
There's a number of risk sports, where people never die doing the most difficult thing...they die doing some humdrum thing.
Why? Because they are totally focused during the hard thing, and the mind/body isn't dialed in during the easy thing.
That and many repetitions of "easier" things, can be a total risk equal to one iteration of a riskier thing.
So: a single jump over Portland out of a 727? Maybe not so risky.
Saying you have a model that's accurate for getting the jump successful, when you don't even know Cooper's background or skills...well, you're just guessing right?
You have no idea how much experience Cooper had. Once you give that as a "rationale" for your model..well I think you've invalidated your model.
re: wrong thread...I guess on podcasts stuff like this isn't discussed 
Pulled this over from the podcast thread...
To be clear, I am not advocating for Cooper dying in the jump. I don't know if he lived or died. I will say that some seem to minimize the risks of the jump to fit their own narrative. Also, I'm not using the word "narrative" pejoratively here. I literally mean that for some, having Cooper lawn dart into the ground is not a very good ending to the story. It's not romantic, and people like to romanticize Cooper and his exploit. I get it.
We don't know Cooper's level of expertise when it comes to jumping from airplanes. We don't know if he had zero jumps, 12 jumps, 100 jumps, or 10,000 jumps. Anyone who says they know for sure is full of it. He could have been a rank amateur or a WWII bomber pilot. We simply don't know.
Also, I think that minimizing the risks inherent in his jump is counterproductive. This was a difficult jump. That doesn't mean it was suicidal, but the factors involved made it dangerous to say the least. They've been discussed ad nauseum over the years:
night jump - if he experienced a complicated malfunction would he have the visibility to manage it? jumping blind; no spot jump
unknown terrain - he had no altimeter
improper equipment - no boots, no helmet, no gloves, no chem light
suboptimal weather - would have experienced the elements immediately wearing just a business suit jumping from a jetliner at 200 mph
using unfamiliar rigs - was it the modified rig Cossey claimed moved the ripcord location?
25 lbs of money haphazardly tied to him - could this have made him asymmetrical in the air?
Again, I'm not pointing to these facts and saying, "There's no way he could have survived." I'm a huge fan of Andrade's research into this. I think it's certainly possible - perhaps likely - that he survived. My point is to say that his survival is far from a slamdunk that we all need to take for granted. I've talked to skydivers and while some of the gung ho guys believe he lived with no problem, others maintain that very few skydivers would attempt that identical jump unless they were experienced in extreme jumps or had a death wish.
So, full circle, I don't know if he lived or died in the jump, but let's not gloss over the difficulty of and risks involved in Cooper's leap.
