Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 1102926 times)

georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #795 on: October 27, 2015, 03:34:13 PM »
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It appears they relied more on the military to tell them where the plane was. Carr stated he couldn't find any records, tapes of any kind, and also stated that he wasn't sure they ever had any of this info. once again, we are left with bits and pieces of what really occurred in making these assumptions of where he jumped, and where the plane was?

It appears that the map is the only surviving piece of evidence to go by. the flight data is missing, as well as any tapes, or records of how the map was constructed. I have a feeling that most of this is buried somewhere, similar to the handling of the Alcatraz escape.

The NWA/FBI Search Map (called FBI Search Map by Sluggo) defines the network of people involved. The Test photo further defines who was involved.

"The heavy dashed line C-D-E-S defines the airplanes probable ground track."  Key word "probable".

We have no information about where or who the Yellow FBI map Carr gave us came from ...

Carr evidently was unable or unwilling to nail down the history of the yellow map -  and mostly likely "unable" imho.

It seems reasonable to me that 'confidence in the reliability of the AF radar data' described in the NWA document would have been central in this work. We already know (from interviews) that the further south the airplane got toward Portland, the less reliable the AF radar data was. That fact, to the extent it was an active parameter at the time, may have skewed the NWA to favoring confidence in a northern drop point?  The FBI Yellow Map with unattached red X's on the west side of Portland may be duplicating the uncertainty active at the time, when mapping options were being made and discussed at the time. We further know that this matter of confidence in a drop zone was still in flux as late as 1976 because of Himmelsbach's public statement in 1976.  And in fact, this map describes 305's flight path as: the airplanes probable ground track, and nothing more. Key word = probable.
 
« Last Edit: October 27, 2015, 03:54:35 PM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #796 on: October 27, 2015, 03:42:51 PM »
I guess I left out the transcripts. they are helpful, but also questionable  :-\
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #797 on: October 27, 2015, 03:45:52 PM »
I ran the section between Lake Merwin & the Columbia river again. this time I kept the lights on. this gives a better view of the outside surroundings. it's another 12 gigs of uncompressed video to break down and will take several hours to finalize, and post on You Tube....the timing was over 8 minutes...
 

Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #798 on: October 27, 2015, 03:48:18 PM »
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It appears they relied more on the military to tell them where the plane was. Carr stated he couldn't find any records, tapes of any kind, and also stated that he wasn't sure they ever had any of this info. once again, we are left with bits and pieces of what really occurred in making these assumptions of where he jumped, and where the plane was?

It appears that the map is the only surviving piece of evidence to go by. the flight data is missing, as well as any tapes, or records of how the map was constructed. I have a feeling that most of this is buried somewhere, similar to the handling of the Alcatraz escape.

The NWA/FBI Search Map (called FBI Search Map by Sluggo) defines the network of people involved. The Test photo further defines who was involved.

"The heavy dashed line C-D-E-S defines the airplanes probable ground track."  Key word "probable".

We have no information about where or who the Yellow FBI map Carr gave us came from ...

Carr evidently was unable or unwilling to nail down the history of the yellow map -  and mostly likely "unable" imho.
 

The "NWA Communications Network tape recording" mentioned in your attachment, which was written by NWA personnel, was probably the ARINC voice tape recording, or maybe an NWA recording of those ARINC communications.  It would not be comparable in accuracy, either of time or location, with the Seattle ATC recordings. 
« Last Edit: October 27, 2015, 03:50:29 PM by Robert99 »
 

georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #799 on: October 27, 2015, 04:06:09 PM »
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It appears they relied more on the military to tell them where the plane was. Carr stated he couldn't find any records, tapes of any kind, and also stated that he wasn't sure they ever had any of this info. once again, we are left with bits and pieces of what really occurred in making these assumptions of where he jumped, and where the plane was?

It appears that the map is the only surviving piece of evidence to go by. the flight data is missing, as well as any tapes, or records of how the map was constructed. I have a feeling that most of this is buried somewhere, similar to the handling of the Alcatraz escape.

The NWA/FBI Search Map (called FBI Search Map by Sluggo) defines the network of people involved. The Test photo further defines who was involved.

"The heavy dashed line C-D-E-S defines the airplanes probable ground track."  Key word "probable".

We have no information about where or who the Yellow FBI map Carr gave us came from ...

Carr evidently was unable or unwilling to nail down the history of the yellow map -  and mostly likely "unable" imho.
 

The "NWA Communications Network tape recording" mentioned in your attachment, which was written by NWA personnel, was probably the ARINC voice tape recording, or maybe an NWA recording of those ARINC communications.  It would not be comparable in accuracy, either of time or location, with the Seattle ATC recordings.

Add to that the people telling H etc to 'fly up to here and look there' ! Who in hell were those people using what info provided to the searchers by who? It all adds up to more uncertainties and uncertainties.

The task at the time was to find Cooper, establish a viable search area, asap ... based on data being provided by ... somebodies?  How were those people communicating ... with who .... probably using real time USAF radar data ?

Was the AF radar data accurate but being communicated poorly so as to add in significant error? Why and who sends H off toward Woodland when the NWA will come out soon specifying Ariel? Was NWA in charghe trying to engineer everything from Minneapolis and who exactly was the FBI listening to? How many voices in this choir at the time? 
« Last Edit: October 27, 2015, 04:14:46 PM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #800 on: October 28, 2015, 07:04:08 AM »
I made a daytime version of the area around the dropzone. it appears we can now verify that this part of the flight can not be flown in the 7 minute time frame that shows on the FBI flight path map. I also add a map on the side showing where the plane is at that moment.

 

georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #801 on: October 28, 2015, 01:59:03 PM »
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I made a daytime version of the area around the dropzone. it appears we can now verify that this part of the flight can not be flown in the 7 minute time frame that shows on the FBI flight path map. I also add a map on the side showing where the plane is at that moment.



The question people are going to ask is: how valid is this simulation ?  Is this an accurate simulation ... and an accurate simulation of what ?  Robert99 can probably make some statistical assessment of that?

Very nice work Shutter.
 
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #802 on: October 28, 2015, 03:36:44 PM »
The numbers help backup, or verify the flights....
 

Offline 377

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #803 on: October 28, 2015, 03:55:51 PM »
LOVE that 727 tail logo Shutter! 8) 8) 8)

How are you at landing the plane? There were some early fatal 727 accidents when new-to-jets airline pilots let the sink rate get too high. On prop planes a throttle increase will  blast air over the wing and give some nearly immediate lift. Not so in jets, you need to accelerate the heavy aircraft to increase lift and that takes time.

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377
« Last Edit: October 28, 2015, 06:51:36 PM by 377 »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #804 on: October 28, 2015, 04:40:32 PM »
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LOVE that 727 tail logo Shutter! 8) 8) 8)

How are you at landing the plane? There were some early fatal 727 accidents when new-to-jets airline pilots let the sink rate get too high. On prop planes a throttle increase will  blast air over the wing and give some nearly immediate lift. Not so in jets, you need to accelerate the heavy aircraft to get lift and that takes time.

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377


I was a nightmare on landing for a long time  ;D I wasn't very good at lining up to the runway on approach, ended up landing in the grass many times, or coming in too fast, so I would do a touch & go to make it look like I knew what I was doing  ;D ;D

The "tail detail" was done in France by a guy who paints planes for X-Plane. I had to wait about 2 months for him to get to me.


« Last Edit: October 28, 2015, 09:35:10 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #805 on: October 28, 2015, 04:51:11 PM »
This is from 2013. shows my handy work at landing. didn't have a clue  :o this was also my old computer. it couldn't handle X-Plane. the frame rate is low in the video...


« Last Edit: October 28, 2015, 09:35:55 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #806 on: October 28, 2015, 05:22:32 PM »
Quote
The question people are going to ask is: how valid is this simulation ?  Is this an accurate simulation ... and an accurate simulation of what ?  Robert99 can probably make some statistical assessment of that?

If you take a look at the photo provided you will see I've set everything they way 305 was configured. you can't see it very good in the photo, but if you rerun the flight, you can see the settings.
A) Speed
B) Altitude
C) TAT (Total Air Temperature)
D) Engines..Bottom row show the fuel flow
E) Flaps

I've tested the plane for speed, and distance. the ground speed has been checked. I've flown from VOR to VOR.

I've checked the distance through Skyvector.

I've done just about everything I can think of to try and verify things done with the simulator. if anything, it can open the door to further testing.

In the video you see everything seems to be fine up till passing Battleground. I'm getting over 3 nautical miles between these marks, and that's shows in the simulation...
« Last Edit: October 28, 2015, 05:30:37 PM by Shutter »
 

georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #807 on: October 28, 2015, 05:53:24 PM »
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Quote
The question people are going to ask is: how valid is this simulation ?  Is this an accurate simulation ... and an accurate simulation of what ?  Robert99 can probably make some statistical assessment of that?

If you take a look at the photo provided you will see I've set everything they way 305 was configured. you can't see it very good in the photo, but if you rerun the flight, you can see the settings.
A) Speed
B) Altitude
C) TAT (Total Air Temperature)
D) Engines..Bottom row show the fuel flow
E) Flaps

I've tested the plane for speed, and distance. the ground speed has been checked. I've flown from VOR to VOR.

I've checked the distance through Skyvector.

I've done just about everything I can think of to try and verify things done with the simulator. if anything, it can open the door to further testing.

In the video you see everything seems to be fine up till passing Battleground. I'm getting over 3 nautical miles between these marks, and that's shows in the simulation...

+1  ;D
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #808 on: October 28, 2015, 06:58:08 PM »
Quote
and an accurate simulation of what ?

It boils down to what is on the map that they include as evidence. I'm taking a portion of the path, and using there time frames, but also checking the distance. I've basically broke the path down into three parts, or legs. the first section is KSEA to the Toledo area. the second portion is from Toledo to the lake Merwin area. then finally, the Merwin to the Columbia river. since they have the times marked on the map, it makes it easy to break it down.

Since I'm using aviation maps in line with the simulator, it's easy to merge into an area to start the testing. the 7:59 position is on the turn at Toledo/Ed Carlson Memorial Field, and I just fly over the Lewis river at a certain point to start the clock at that position. I will continue to fly each part/leg marking the times until I'm satisfied I have each leg down, add them up and see what they show, then start running complete flights from KSEA to past KPDX to the Canby intersection.

Hope that answers it?  ;D
 

Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #809 on: October 29, 2015, 04:31:30 AM »
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LOVE that 727 tail logo Shutter! 8) 8) 8)

How are you at landing the plane? There were some early fatal 727 accidents when new-to-jets airline pilots let the sink rate get too high. On prop planes a throttle increase will  blast air over the wing and give some nearly immediate lift. Not so in jets, you need to accelerate the heavy aircraft to increase lift and that takes time.

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377

Me, too, Shutt.

How accurate is your portrayal of the landscape?  It looks pretty flat and open pastures in V-23. A little more open and farm-y than I sense when I'm there, driving around.