Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 916504 times)

Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #435 on: December 23, 2014, 12:54:30 AM »
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I spotted a tower while flying at night. I took a screenshot of the sim, and Google street view. they are in the same location a little over a half a mile north of the Columbia on I-5 it has a blinking beacon (red)

High things all over the country have blinking lights (red, if I'm remembering right).  Example:  AM radio antennas.  It's to keep planes from crashing into them at night.  This was true in the 1970 dark ages too.


Correct, I was just answering G's question about lights in the area. you also have different intensities with different heights.

Quote
Were there any revolving beacons or lights (aviation or maritime)

Rataczak says he, they, could see the lights of Portland/Vancouver coming up - at 8:10. Some dispute this was possible due to cloud cover. Rotating beacons, like light houses, tend to be noticed from a distance due to the blinking on/off effect.  It's likely Cooper looked around from the stairs at least prior to jumping. People have said the bright lights on the Lake Merwin dam might have been visible from a distance.  Bright rotating and blinking beacons near PDX might have been visible?  It's just a thought -

Did Rataczak see lights on the ground or just the glow from Portland/Vancouver, which can be quite pronounced, through the clouds?
 

georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #436 on: December 23, 2014, 04:49:29 AM »
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I spotted a tower while flying at night. I took a screenshot of the sim, and Google street view. they are in the same location a little over a half a mile north of the Columbia on I-5 it has a blinking beacon (red)

High things all over the country have blinking lights (red, if I'm remembering right).  Example:  AM radio antennas.  It's to keep planes from crashing into them at night.  This was true in the 1970 dark ages too.


Correct, I was just answering G's question about lights in the area. you also have different intensities with different heights.

Quote
Were there any revolving beacons or lights (aviation or maritime)

Rataczak says he, they, could see the lights of Portland/Vancouver coming up - at 8:10. Some dispute this was possible due to cloud cover. Rotating beacons, like light houses, tend to be noticed from a distance due to the blinking on/off effect.  It's likely Cooper looked around from the stairs at least prior to jumping. People have said the bright lights on the Lake Merwin dam might have been visible from a distance.  Bright rotating and blinking beacons near PDX might have been visible?  It's just a thought -

Did Rataczak see lights on the ground or just the glow from Portland/Vancouver, which can be quite pronounced, through the clouds?

I will find the quote.

 

Offline hom

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #437 on: December 23, 2014, 10:36:57 PM »
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Rataczak says he, they, could see the lights of Portland/Vancouver coming up - at 8:10. Some dispute this was possible due to cloud cover. Rotating beacons, like light houses, tend to be noticed from a distance due to the blinking on/off effect.  It's likely Cooper looked around from the stairs at least prior to jumping. People have said the bright lights on the Lake Merwin dam might have been visible from a distance.  Bright rotating and blinking beacons near PDX might have been visible?  It's just a thought -

There are a few things that should be understood about cloud cover information as it relates to flight 305 while it approached Portland.

The first is that the information we have applies strictly to a specific place at a specific time.  That specific place was not the location of flight 305, and the specific time was not when the flight was nearing Vancouver and Portland.

The cloud cover information we have is about what portion of the sky could be seen (or not seen) from a cloud-cover observation site at PDX.  This information also says what portion of the sky around PDX an airplane could be in such that the crew would be able to clearly see back to the cloud observation point at PDX.  It's a reciprocal relationship.

The cloud coverage data doesn't apply exactly to what cloud coverage would be seen from a place other than PDX (e.g., Battle Ground).  And it doesn't apply exactly to the question of what could be seen on the ground at places other than PDX.  Applicability to places other than the PDX observation site is only approximate.

Also, the cloud coverage information we have was for 8pm and 9pm.  Clouds aren't static.  There was in fact a clearing trend.  So the information we have applies only approximately for 8:13pm.

The second important thing to understand is that cloud coverage classified as "overcast" does not (and did not then) mean complete coverage.  For some time now, the cloud coverage definitions are in terms of eighths of the sky that are covered.  In 1971 the definitions were in terms of tenths, and "overcast" meant more than 9 tenths coverage.  This could still leave a small part of the sky that would be visible from the PDX observation site.  A plane could occasionally pass through small areas where it would be able to see PDX.

Finally, it is incorrect to characterize the cloud cover as being layers of scattered and broken cover AND an overcast.  The fact is that the definitions (then and now) are in terms of cummulative cover.  A cloud layer is classified as "broken" if that layer plus the layers below it block a certain amount of sky.  An overcast in 1971 was a cloud layer that, along with all lower layers, blocked more than 9 tenths of the sky.  For example, a layer blocking half the sky could be an overcast layer if the lower layers blocked a different half of the sky.  Depending upon vertical spacing between layers, it would in such a case be possible for an airplane crew to see through a "hole" in one cloud layer, through the space between layers, then through a hole in a lower layer to see some point on the ground.
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #438 on: December 23, 2014, 11:25:14 PM »
I have brought up the escape from Alcatraz before. I just watched the episode I've seen before, but I caught a few things I didn't the first time. the FBI handed over the case to the US Marshal's in the late 70's. it took them almost two years to give them all the files? a lot of the original files were stored at the National Archives in San Francisco.

This was where the Agent who is currently on the case discovered the buried files about a raft being found, and a car being stolen the next day. If you don't recall, the FBI claimed for years that no raft was found, and no crimes committed following the escape. Alcatraz was a Federal prison with the reputation of being escape proof. could the FBI be following the same guidelines with this case? the escape I can almost understand that they were under pressure not to look bad with the escape proof prison proving them wrong. did they quickly assume they all drown? why would pieces not related to the raft show up days later? and oar, there life vests, a packet of photo's, but not a single piece of a rather large raft? records also indicate a boat was close to the Island just after midnight. the engine cut off, and started moments later?

Here we have key pieces of evidence missing? the butts, the glass Cooper drank from. these are important to the crime, perhaps not so important in 1971, but if it took them two years to get all the files in order it could be from an organizing issue, to going over what to give the Marshall's office. it's almost like they meant to bury the key pieces in the archives hoping nobody would bother?
« Last Edit: December 23, 2014, 11:27:58 PM by shutter »
 

Moriarty

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #439 on: December 24, 2014, 12:19:30 AM »
Ceiling of 5,000 feet, broken clouds at 3,500, scattered clouds at 1,500. Winds of 12 to 14 knots, light rain showers.
 

Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #440 on: December 24, 2014, 01:26:49 AM »
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Rataczak says he, they, could see the lights of Portland/Vancouver coming up - at 8:10. Some dispute this was possible due to cloud cover. Rotating beacons, like light houses, tend to be noticed from a distance due to the blinking on/off effect.  It's likely Cooper looked around from the stairs at least prior to jumping. People have said the bright lights on the Lake Merwin dam might have been visible from a distance.  Bright rotating and blinking beacons near PDX might have been visible?  It's just a thought -

There are a few things that should be understood about cloud cover information as it relates to flight 305 while it approached Portland.

The first is that the information we have applies strictly to a specific place at a specific time.  That specific place was not the location of flight 305, and the specific time was not when the flight was nearing Vancouver and Portland.

The cloud cover information we have is about what portion of the sky could be seen (or not seen) from a cloud-cover observation site at PDX.  This information also says what portion of the sky around PDX an airplane could be in such that the crew would be able to clearly see back to the cloud observation point at PDX.  It's a reciprocal relationship.

The cloud coverage data doesn't apply exactly to what cloud coverage would be seen from a place other than PDX (e.g., Battle Ground).  And it doesn't apply exactly to the question of what could be seen on the ground at places other than PDX.  Applicability to places other than the PDX observation site is only approximate.

Also, the cloud coverage information we have was for 8pm and 9pm.  Clouds aren't static.  There was in fact a clearing trend.  So the information we have applies only approximately for 8:13pm.

The second important thing to understand is that cloud coverage classified as "overcast" does not (and did not then) mean complete coverage.  For some time now, the cloud coverage definitions are in terms of eighths of the sky that are covered.  In 1971 the definitions were in terms of tenths, and "overcast" meant more than 9 tenths coverage.  This could still leave a small part of the sky that would be visible from the PDX observation site.  A plane could occasionally pass through small areas where it would be able to see PDX.

Finally, it is incorrect to characterize the cloud cover as being layers of scattered and broken cover AND an overcast.  The fact is that the definitions (then and now) are in terms of cummulative cover.  A cloud layer is classified as "broken" if that layer plus the layers below it block a certain amount of sky.  An overcast in 1971 was a cloud layer that, along with all lower layers, blocked more than 9 tenths of the sky.  For example, a layer blocking half the sky could be an overcast layer if the lower layers blocked a different half of the sky.  Depending upon vertical spacing between layers, it would in such a case be possible for an airplane crew to see through a "hole" in one cloud layer, through the space between layers, then through a hole in a lower layer to see some point on the ground.

The description of a cloud layer applies only to that single cloud layer.  The description of an overcast applies only to the single cloud layer that is described as an overcast and has nothing to do with any cloud layers that are below it or above it.  An "overcast" itself would cover from 90 percent of the sky to 100 percent of the sky.  Any cloud layers below the "overcast" would further obscure vision. 

Weather information such as cloud layers and their height above the ground or sea level are not limited to ground observers alone but may also include pilot reports of the weather.  Also, it should be remembered that the weather information reported in the hourly sequence reports is normally recorded at about 10 minutes before the hour in question.

The matter of observation of ground lights, such as airport beacons, is not as simple as it may appear.  In the specific case of airport beacons, they are configured to be easier to observe at lower altitudes.  That is, they are essentially two (or three) rotating flashlights pointed just above the horizon.  They are not one or two big light bulbs flashing on and off.  The end result is that if you are flying at 1000 feet over flat terrain you can see the airport beacons from 10 or 15 miles away.  But your view of the beacon would be somewhat more restricted if you were at 10,000 feet and the same distance from it.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2014, 01:32:11 AM by Robert99 »
 

Moriarty

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #441 on: December 24, 2014, 01:54:16 AM »
I think you have to keep in mind that Cooper doesn't have the flight plan, it's just a direction (Mexico City,) maybe he's done the flight before, that's a maybe, he agrees to Reno, doesn't seem to care that much *meh* same-ish direction, he wants to get out the aircraft, aft stair issues, his plan is general/simple, he rolls the dice (everyone argues the difficulty of the jump but it's easy when you have no choice) and bails, BUT when he hits the broken cloud layer then he could see a general idea of the river, highway, dam, whatever.
 

Offline hom

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #442 on: December 24, 2014, 02:25:09 AM »
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The description of a cloud layer applies only to that single cloud layer.  The description of an overcast applies only to the single cloud layer that is described as an overcast and has nothing to do with any cloud layers that are below it or above it.  An "overcast" itself would cover from 90 percent of the sky to 100 percent of the sky.  Any cloud layers below the "overcast" would further obscure vision.

Following is from Section 2 of Aviation Weather Services Advisory Circular AC 00-45G, Change 1, published jointly by the National Weather Service and the FAA (emphasis added to make it clear enough for you):

"When more than one layer is reported, layers are in ascending order of height. For each layer above a lower layer or layers, the sky cover designator for that layer will be the total sky cover which includes that layer and all lower layers. In other words, the summation concept of cloud layers is used.

 "Transparent" sky cover is clouds or obscuring phenomena aloft through which blue sky or higher sky cover is visible. As explained in Table 2-1, a scattered, broken, or overcast layer may be reported as "thin." To be classified as thin, a layer must be half or more transparent.  Remember that sky cover of a layer includes all sky cover reported below that layer."

This is from a pretty current document, but the same was true in 1971.  (But, what would the weather service or FAA know about it?)
 

georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #443 on: December 24, 2014, 04:56:43 AM »
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The description of a cloud layer applies only to that single cloud layer.  The description of an overcast applies only to the single cloud layer that is described as an overcast and has nothing to do with any cloud layers that are below it or above it.  An "overcast" itself would cover from 90 percent of the sky to 100 percent of the sky.  Any cloud layers below the "overcast" would further obscure vision.

Following is from Section 2 of Aviation Weather Services Advisory Circular AC 00-45G, Change 1, published jointly by the National Weather Service and the FAA (emphasis added to make it clear enough for you):

"When more than one layer is reported, layers are in ascending order of height. For each layer above a lower layer or layers, the sky cover designator for that layer will be the total sky cover which includes that layer and all lower layers. In other words, the summation concept of cloud layers is used.

 "Transparent" sky cover is clouds or obscuring phenomena aloft through which blue sky or higher sky cover is visible. As explained in Table 2-1, a scattered, broken, or overcast layer may be reported as "thin." To be classified as thin, a layer must be half or more transparent.  Remember that sky cover of a layer includes all sky cover reported below that layer."

This is from a pretty current document, but the same was true in 1971.  (But, what would the weather service or FAA know about it?)

Seen from above, the issue is light scattering through whatever cloud cover exists. Commonly called a 'light dome'. (we measure the luminosity of light domes all the time when deciding where to place an optical system). What Rataczak supposedly said was they could see the light from 'the suburbs' of Portland/Vancouver? coming up. That may be a little more limited than a general light dome over the whole area of the twin cities. Until Rataczak specifies what he means its all speculation...
   
 

Offline MarkBennett

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #444 on: December 24, 2014, 09:53:59 AM »
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doesn't seem to care that much *meh* same-ish direction, he wants to get out the aircraft,

Ok, apologies for a brief off topic....but I just found this out and thought it was interesting.  The word "meh" came from the Simpsons TV show.

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Offline hom

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #445 on: December 24, 2014, 01:15:49 PM »
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Ceiling of 5,000 feet, broken clouds at 3,500, scattered clouds at 1,500. Winds of 12 to 14 knots, light rain showers.

You gave no clue as to why you posted this.  We've seen it for several years.  If I remember correctly, I think it came to DZ from agent Carr and I think it was Robert99 that first pointed out that the report is a bit defective.  The problem is incorrect usage of "ceiling."  Whoever originated it must have thought that "ceiling" and "overcast" are synonymous.  Given that a "broken" layer is not specified as less than normal density, the "ceiling" would be the "broken" clouds at 3500 feet.  In this report, "ceiling" should have been "overcast."  If the report did come from Carr, he probably got it out of the case file and it may well have come from a special report NWA got at around the time of the Portland passing.   Much of what Carr posted was never questioned about things like when, where, and where did it come from, largely because people would immediately post about something else so that discussions rarely focused.  With "overcast" substituted for "ceiling" this report is pretty much like the special report NWA obtained for 9:17pm:

METAR KPDX 250517Z 250517 24012KT 06SM -SHRA SCT15 BKN35 OVC50

at 9:17pm:  wind 12kt from 240°true (30° S of due west), visibility 6 stat miles, light rain showers, bottom of scattered layer still at 1500ft, bottom of broken layer now at 3500ft, & bottom of overcast layer still at 5000ft.  No temperature in the report.

 

Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #446 on: December 24, 2014, 01:53:10 PM »
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I think you have to keep in mind that Cooper doesn't have the flight plan, it's just a direction (Mexico City,) maybe he's done the flight before, that's a maybe, he agrees to Reno, doesn't seem to care that much *meh* same-ish direction, he wants to get out the aircraft, aft stair issues, his plan is general/simple, he rolls the dice (everyone argues the difficulty of the jump but it's easy when you have no choice) and bails, BUT when he hits the broken cloud layer then he could see a general idea of the river, highway, dam, whatever.

Professor Moriarty, please keep in mind that Cooper jumped at night through multiple cloud layers and it is very difficult to determine landmarks when you are tumbling head over heels, as Cooper was probably doing, even in the daytime under such conditions.
 

Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #447 on: December 24, 2014, 02:04:33 PM »
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The description of a cloud layer applies only to that single cloud layer.  The description of an overcast applies only to the single cloud layer that is described as an overcast and has nothing to do with any cloud layers that are below it or above it.  An "overcast" itself would cover from 90 percent of the sky to 100 percent of the sky.  Any cloud layers below the "overcast" would further obscure vision.

Following is from Section 2 of Aviation Weather Services Advisory Circular AC 00-45G, Change 1, published jointly by the National Weather Service and the FAA (emphasis added to make it clear enough for you):

"When more than one layer is reported, layers are in ascending order of height. For each layer above a lower layer or layers, the sky cover designator for that layer will be the total sky cover which includes that layer and all lower layers. In other words, the summation concept of cloud layers is used.

 "Transparent" sky cover is clouds or obscuring phenomena aloft through which blue sky or higher sky cover is visible. As explained in Table 2-1, a scattered, broken, or overcast layer may be reported as "thin." To be classified as thin, a layer must be half or more transparent.  Remember that sky cover of a layer includes all sky cover reported below that layer."

This is from a pretty current document, but the same was true in 1971.  (But, what would the weather service or FAA know about it?)

Let me check into this further.  I'll be back in due time.

In another post, you list NWA as having a special weather observation made at 9:17 PM (PST?).  Do you know the purpose of this observation?  This observation would be approximately one hour after the airliner passed through the area headed to Reno.
 

Offline hom

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #448 on: December 24, 2014, 06:19:49 PM »
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In another post, you list NWA as having a special weather observation made at 9:17 PM (PST?).  Do you know the purpose of this observation?  This observation would be approximately one hour after the airliner passed through the area headed to Reno.

I don't know.  This was among the reports and forecasts agent Carr brought to DZ.  Wasn't a real METAR like I showed it.  I typed the METAR to facilitate input to a weather generator for a flight simulator.  I can check on what other locations were in the printout if you like.  That might give a clue.  Maybe possibility of people getting out to search?  There is no explanation of anything on the printout.
 

Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #449 on: December 24, 2014, 07:03:17 PM »
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In another post, you list NWA as having a special weather observation made at 9:17 PM (PST?).  Do you know the purpose of this observation?  This observation would be approximately one hour after the airliner passed through the area headed to Reno.

I don't know.  This was among the reports and forecasts agent Carr brought to DZ.  Wasn't a real METAR like I showed it.  I typed the METAR to facilitate input to a weather generator for a flight simulator.  I can check on what other locations were in the printout if you like.  That might give a clue.  Maybe possibility of people getting out to search?  There is no explanation of anything on the printout.

I'll keep your offer in mind but at present I don't know what it would be used for.  Remember that the airliner was south of Portland by about 8:18PM PST, then there was the regular 9:00PM PST hourly sequence report, and then the special one at 9:17PM PST.  Special reports are normally only made in the event of such things as an aircraft accident or something of that magnitude.