Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 1096145 times)

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4275 on: March 21, 2021, 12:56:37 AM »
I'll have more to say about this later, but I said this on DZ:

There is a difference between the "oscillations" and the "pressure bump". The "oscillations" are like being pregnant and the "pressure bump" is like having a baby. At 8:11 the crew was reporting that the plane was "getting some oscillations in the cabin" (still pregnant). They did not report a pressure bump at that time (just gave birth). They did the same thing at 8:12 (although I'm open to the possibility of a 1 minute delay in the original 8:11 report). The FBI looked at the data and transmissions about "pressure fluctuations" and "oscillations" and incorrectly deduced that that meant that's when Cooper bailed. They looked at the woman who was 8 months pregnant and said "she just had a baby". That's their error and that confusion continues to this day.

We don't know when Cooper jumped, but we know that he had to have jumped AFTER 8:11 and probably after 8:12.

The 8:13 time that is repeated comes from Sonderlind who estimated the jumped time after the crew reported it an unknown time later. It's not official - just an educated guess based on crew statements.

Then you add in the statements from Rat and others about "not being in Portland Proper but in the suburbs and the immediate vicinity" and "seeing the lights of Portland coming up" "but not yet crossed the Columbia yet". That leads me to believe that the jump occurred nearer to the Columbia than originally thought. Proof? No, but strong circumstantial evidence. The FBI would seem to agree since they have moved the drop zone further south as time passed. I think they know they screwed the pooch with the 8:11 jump and ensuing search and adjusted it south - just not enough IMO.

TL;DR:  The assumption that the oscillations and the pressure bump are the same thing is a mistake. Are they connected? Yes, but not the same thing. Like being pregnant vs. giving birth.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4276 on: March 21, 2021, 12:59:52 AM »
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7:54 pm     
MSP:     
305:       Roger. Miss Mucklow said he apparently has the knapsack around him
and thinks he will attempt a jump.

This is a delayed response from the question asked to 305. Tina seen him as she pulled the curtain closed going up front at around 7 40 ish. the ground starts the conversation about Cooper leaving prompting them to respond to what Tina seen.

So what are you saying? "Called" at 8:20 does not refer to them calling the back but to someone else?

It's a delayed response from the crew, reason? the ground said the following "As soon as reasonably sure the man has left the quicker you can land."

305 responds to what Tina had seen once she left the cabin at 7:40 ish and was pulling back the curtain. she seen him ready to jump. they respond with "Miss Mucklow said he apparently has the knapsack around him and thinks he will attempt a jump."

They didn't respond to what Tina had seen until 7:54....that's how I see it?
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4277 on: March 21, 2021, 01:02:02 AM »
T
Quote
The 8:13 time that is repeated comes from Sonderlind who estimated the jumped time after the crew reported it an unknown time later. It's not official - just an educated guess based on crew statements.

Paul made the jump maps and calculated 8:11. why would he reference 8:13?
« Last Edit: March 21, 2021, 01:02:55 AM by Shutter »
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4278 on: March 21, 2021, 01:04:38 AM »
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The 8:13 time that is repeated comes from Sonderlind who estimated the jumped time after the crew reported it an unknown time later. It's not official - just an educated guess based on crew statements.

Paul made the jump maps and calculated 8:11. why would he reference 8:13?
My understanding is that Sonderling came up with the 8:13 time. Wasn't that what Rataczak told Carr?
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4279 on: March 21, 2021, 01:09:41 AM »
I don't recall him giving a time other than 10-15 minutes vs 5 to 10 said in the past. I believe Eric stated Bill said 8:13 unless I'm mistaken on that?
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4280 on: March 21, 2021, 01:11:46 AM »
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I don't recall him giving a time other than 10-15 minutes vs 5 to 10 said in the past. I believe Eric stated Bill said 8:13 unless I'm mistaken on that?
Yes, I know Eric has said Bill told him 8:13, but in regards to Sonderlind, my understanding is that Sonderlind estimated 8:13 based on the crew statements. I'm prepared to be wrong about that, maybe not?
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4281 on: March 21, 2021, 01:14:08 AM »
I think you are wrong or we wold see a map referencing that point? several maps were made. check and see if the time was changed...

I know a reference is made stating the jump could go all the way down to the columbia or the search..
« Last Edit: March 21, 2021, 01:15:40 AM by Shutter »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4282 on: March 21, 2021, 01:18:01 AM »
There have been several times officially associated with the jump ranging from 8:10 - 8:13. For a long time I tried to understand why there was any disparity at all.

Ultimately I reasoned that the oscillations began at 8:10 and that the pressure bump occurred at 8:13. But, that the FBI didn't really know what all of that meant--at least originally. In other words, they weren't certain at what point in this three-minute long sequence that Cooper actually jumped. Therefore, they considered the entire three minutes--covering about 10 miles--as a prospective landing zone for DBC.

Later, after the Pacific Ocean tests, I think they gained a better understanding of what happened and the proper sequence. Thus, DBC jumped at the end of the sequence, ultimately around 8:13.

Now, Rataczak explained to me that he immediately notified Soderlind via radio when the pressure bump occurred. Therefore, I believe that Rataczak was certain that DBC bailed at 8:13 from the beginning, even though the FBI wasn't quite certain. Therefore, the Pacific Ocean test.

All of this said, I think 8:13 is the most likely jump time. Moreover, this would have been before they reached Vancouver which is a suburb of Portland. To have jumped anywhere near the Columbia River using the FBI Flight Path puts you smack in the middle of the Greater Portland area which doesn't add-up considering Rataczak's comments about approaching the suburbs.

Now, the $64,000 question. Whether DBC jumped at 8:10, 8:11, 8:12 or 8:13, what does it matter? How does the money get to Tena Bar if you buy the FBI Flight Path? It is this question that you should be pondering.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2021, 01:19:34 AM by EU »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4283 on: March 21, 2021, 01:31:39 AM »
I'm trying to figure out why they stayed with the 8:11 location if the crew believes it was 8:13. I'm not disputing the time the crew states but they appear to go against that?
« Last Edit: March 21, 2021, 01:32:02 AM by Shutter »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4284 on: March 21, 2021, 01:37:37 AM »
I'm not sure what the crew believed. As for Rataczak, 8:13 was apparently his number.

One thing to consider also relates to the attache' case in particular. Meaning, I think the FBI deduced that if DBC simply chucked the attache' case and/or dummy reserve out the back, that this would have likely occurred near the beginning of the oscillations sequence. Therefore, this would have factored into their search area.
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Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4285 on: March 21, 2021, 01:44:23 AM »
However, Anderson has said that they delayed in reporting the pressure bump. Also, the 8:12 time is purely a guess. We know it happened after the oscillations but when did the oscillations end? 8:14? 8:14? 8:15? 8:16? We don’t know. The reason the jump time is important to me is because if it’s close to the river then that would begin to offer an explanation for the money on Tena Bar.

But if we verify it happened earlier then that creates even more confusion.
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Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4286 on: March 21, 2021, 01:56:51 AM »
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However, Anderson has said that they delayed in reporting the pressure bump. Also, the 8:12 time is purely a guess. We know it happened after the oscillations but when did the oscillations end? 8:14? 8:14? 8:15? 8:16? We don’t know. The reason the jump time is important to me is because if it’s close to the river then that would begin to offer an explanation for the money on Tena Bar.

But if we verify it happened earlier then that creates even more confusion.

I cannot speak for Anderson's comments. I'm not really sure what his comments were, what context they were made in, and when they were made.

That said, Rataczak seems to be quite certain exactly what he said, when and to whom. Moreover, my impression from speaking with Rataczak was that the entire sequence leading to the jump was two or three minutes. This is also consistent with what what the FBI apparently believes as well.

I appreciate the desire to fully vet the time frame to see if the jet was anywhere near the Columbia River. That said, I just don't see how it is possible unless DBC somehow got caught up on the airstairs and was freed loose after several minutes. Still one would think that the pilots would have noticed this. Moreover, one would think that something would have been found somewhere at some point if DBC no-pulled near PDX.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4287 on: March 21, 2021, 02:23:43 AM »
Quote
The stairs weren’t opening like Cooper needed. Cooper called me on the interphone while Tina was riding up front with us. Cooper had let Tina come to the front.  He yelled,  "slow it down!."  I stated back to Cooper, "OK."  And we did;  we slowed the plane.

This is from the start of the flight. they leveled off, slowed the plane down and went to 30 degree flaps.

Quote
The oscillations continued, as I remember, but were smoother and we hadn’t heard anything from Cooper.

This is also from the start of the flight and appears the oscillation smoothed out. Copper might of been on the first couple steps causing more disruption.
Quote
Bill called back to him and he finally answered.  He said everything was “OK”

This is the 8:05 entry.
Quote
More time passed. And then suddenly came that “bump”. After the final "bump" which we felt with our ears, we all discussed it for awhile, waiting for another bump.  It never repeated, so we assumed that was his exit.

Here, it appears to show the gap between the 8:05 entry and when Cooper was on the stairs. they describe two events or two bumps. one possibly Cooper on the stairs and the final bump being the door closing....
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4288 on: March 21, 2021, 01:03:47 PM »
I went over this last night and checked again with the Harrison notes. apparently, he was monitoring the flight and taking notes.

We have several entries in the log that can be confusing.

The log/teletype reports at 8:22 the plane is at 23 miles DME.
Harrison notes the time at 8:18.

The next entry in the log is 8:52 stating they are over the Eugene VOR and talk about Cooper's last contact 55 minutes ago. that doesn't match the 8:52 entry. Harrison notes it at 9:00 which makes sense for the last contact at 55 minutes.

The problem appears to be the entry recorded has two time frames into one. (8:22 log)
Harrison notes at 8:50 they are over the Eugene VOR
Harrison notes the next entry as 9:00 for the reference to 55 minutes since they contacted Cooper.
The transcripts have them combined.

The distance between the 23 miles DME and the Eugene VOR is approx. 79 NM.
This gives approx. 26.3 minutes of flight.
This gives a time of 8:44

Then you look at the fuel. 4500 per hour x 3 is 13,500
The 8:22 entry shows 40,000 lbs of fuel.
The 8:52 entry shows 33,500 lbs of fuel
They burned 6,500 lbs in 30 minutes. which sounds right.

Harrison times are
8:18 and 8:50 with 32 minutes.
The fuel equals about the same.

We are still missing time. Harrison reports 165 at 8:18 and the transcripts report 170.
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4289 on: March 21, 2021, 01:34:56 PM »
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I went over this last night and checked again with the Harrison notes. apparently, he was monitoring the flight and taking notes.

We have several entries in the log that can be confusing.

The log/teletype reports at 8:22 the plane is at 23 miles DME.
Harrison notes the time at 8:18.

The next entry in the log is 8:52 stating they are over the Eugene VOR and talk about Cooper's last contact 55 minutes ago. that doesn't match the 8:52 entry. Harrison notes it at 9:00 which makes sense for the last contact at 55 minutes.

The problem appears to be the entry recorded has two time frames into one. (8:22 log)
Harrison notes at 8:50 they are over the Eugene VOR
Harrison notes the next entry as 9:00 for the reference to 55 minutes since they contacted Cooper.
The transcripts have them combined.

The distance between the 23 miles DME and the Eugene VOR is approx. 79 NM.
This gives approx. 26.3 minutes of flight.
This gives a time of 8:44

Then you look at the fuel. 4500 per hour x 3 is 13,500
The 8:22 entry shows 40,000 lbs of fuel.
The 8:52 entry shows 33,500 lbs of fuel
They burned 6,500 lbs in 30 minutes. which sounds right.

Harrison times are
8:18 and 8:50 with 32 minutes.
The fuel equals about the same.

We are still missing time. Harrison reports 165 at 8:18 and the transcripts report 170.

What is interesting is that if Harrison is accurate with the 8:18/23 DME stamp, then according to my version of the Western Flight Path--Maylay (not Toledo) direct to Canby--305 would be over Sauvie Island a 1000 feet or so south of Tena Bar at 8:13.

This would mean that DBC jumping at 8:13 and drifting to the NE would land just north of Tena Bar as I have theorized.

An intriguing coincidence to note in my mind.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

RFK