Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 984071 times)

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4170 on: March 18, 2021, 10:54:22 PM »
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The plots on the map are from radar reports, correct. I forget how many times it revolves in a minute so this could be the reason for the extended plots or the difference in distance between the minutes?

Shutter shot me a call earlier today and we talked about this.

It is a fool's errand to attempt to discern a 5-10 MPH ground speed difference based upon the radar plots on the yellow map.

First off, this is a basic yellow map with penciled radar plots from some dude 48 hours after the fact. To somehow suggest that there is any great degree of accuracy based upon a map that some guy could buy at a Texaco and throw down some plots with a pencil two days after the fact is ludicrous.

Additionally, the larger issue is that the radar in those days would make six rotations a minute--one every 10 seconds. Therefore, there are six radar plots for each one-minute time period.

So, you can see on the yellow map that some of the dots are closer than others. That is not because the pilots were F'ing around and speeding up and slowing down the jet. That is because some of the plots may have been the first plot of six, others may have been the sixth plot of six, still others may have been the third plot of six.

My point being, you cannot, with any degree of accuracy, measure the speed of 305 by simply looking at the penciled plots on a paper map.
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Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4171 on: March 18, 2021, 11:02:08 PM »
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The plots on the map are from radar reports, correct. I forget how many times it revolves in a minute so this could be the reason for the extended plots or the difference in distance between the minutes?

Shutter shot me a call earlier today and we talked about this.

It is a fool's errand to attempt to discern a 5-10 MPH ground speed difference based upon the radar plots on the yellow map.

First off, this is a basic yellow map with penciled radar plots from some dude 48 hours after the fact. To somehow suggest that there is any great degree of accuracy based upon a map that some guy could buy at a Texaco and throw down some plots with a pencil two days after the fact is ludicrous.

Additionally, the larger issue is that the radar in those days would make six rotations a minute--one every 10 seconds. Therefore, there are six radar plots for each one-minute time period.

So, you can see on the yellow map that some of the dots are closer than others. That is not because the pilots were F'ing around and speeding up and slowing down the jet. That is because some of the plots may have been the first plot of six, others may have been the sixth plot of six, still others may have been the third plot of six.

My point being, you cannot, with any degree of accuracy, measure the speed of 305 by simply looking at the penciled plots on a paper map.
That said, it's pretty safe to assume that 305 maintained 165 knots for the vast majority of the flight from Seattle to Portland, right? If that's the case, using the takeoff time of 7:36, it should be pretty easy to plot out minute segments with 2.75 NM between each plot point along yellow map path.

EU, your point stands though:  we might be able to get a general overview, but nothing precise.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4172 on: March 18, 2021, 11:04:08 PM »
I didn't agree with a lot of our conversation. it was funny. we were both talking at the same time trying to get our points out...I have a bad habit of cutting in while someone is talking but we both did it this time  :rofl:

I don't think Texaco sold sectional maps....
« Last Edit: March 18, 2021, 11:07:20 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4173 on: March 18, 2021, 11:09:51 PM »
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I didn't agree with a lot of our conversation. it was funny. we were both talking at the same time trying to get our points out...I have a bad habit of cutting in while someone is talking but we both did it this time  :rofl:

I don't think Texaco sold sectional maps....

Nonetheless, what I said about six radar plots every minute is accurate.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4174 on: March 18, 2021, 11:12:57 PM »
Perhaps it would be better to say we disagreed on the map vs other subjects we spoke about and agreed to or had common thoughts etc.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4175 on: March 19, 2021, 12:14:47 AM »
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I didn't agree with a lot of our conversation. it was funny. we were both talking at the same time trying to get our points out...I have a bad habit of cutting in while someone is talking but we both did it this time  :rofl:

I don't think Texaco sold sectional maps....

Nonetheless, what I said about six radar plots every minute is accurate.

The six radar plots or "hits" per minute is correct.  In the 1971 time frame, radars with rotating antennas made a complete revolution six times per minute or once ever 12 seconds.  If the radar was interrogating your transponder, a little green light would flash on/off with ever hit or 12 seconds.  If a number of radars were interrogating your transponder, the little green light was flashing on/off all the time.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4176 on: March 19, 2021, 12:37:21 AM »
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The plots on the map are from radar reports, correct. I forget how many times it revolves in a minute so this could be the reason for the extended plots or the difference in distance between the minutes?

Shutter shot me a call earlier today and we talked about this.

It is a fool's errand to attempt to discern a 5-10 MPH ground speed difference based upon the radar plots on the yellow map.

First off, this is a basic yellow map with penciled radar plots from some dude 48 hours after the fact. To somehow suggest that there is any great degree of accuracy based upon a map that some guy could buy at a Texaco and throw down some plots with a pencil two days after the fact is ludicrous.

Additionally, the larger issue is that the radar in those days would make six rotations a minute--one every 10 seconds. Therefore, there are six radar plots for each one-minute time period.

So, you can see on the yellow map that some of the dots are closer than others. That is not because the pilots were F'ing around and speeding up and slowing down the jet. That is because some of the plots may have been the first plot of six, others may have been the sixth plot of six, still others may have been the third plot of six.

My point being, you cannot, with any degree of accuracy, measure the speed of 305 by simply looking at the penciled plots on a paper map.
That said, it's pretty safe to assume that 305 maintained 165 knots for the vast majority of the flight from Seattle to Portland, right? If that's the case, using the takeoff time of 7:36, it should be pretty easy to plot out minute segments with 2.75 NM between each plot point along yellow map path.

EU, your point stands though:  we might be able to get a general overview, but nothing precise.

Let's do some elementary calculations.  Assume that the airliner stayed on the V-23 centerline all the way.  The airliner took off at SEATAC at 7:36 PM and was at the 23 DME miles point south of the Battleground/Portland VORTAC at 8:18.  That is an elapsed time of 42 minutes.

The distance between SEATAC and the Battleground VORTAC is 105 Nautical Miles.  Adding the 23 DME Nautical miles give a total distance of 128 Nautical Miles flown in those 42 minutes.  That comes out as being a ground speed of 182.86 Knots (or Nautical Miles per Hour).

This is essentially the same as the 3.0 Nautical Miles per Minute that I have been claiming for the Ground Speed in the Portland area for the last 10+ years.
 
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Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4177 on: March 19, 2021, 01:13:56 AM »
I calculated the FBI flight path as approximately 135 NM. I used a 46 minute trip (7:36 to 8:22). Simple division gives you 2.93 nautical miles per minute. So, yes, Bob, I would agree that an average of 3 NM/minute is accurate.
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4178 on: March 19, 2021, 02:36:21 AM »
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I calculated the FBI flight path as approximately 135 NM. I used a 46 minute trip (7:36 to 8:22). Simple division gives you 2.93 nautical miles per minute. So, yes, Bob, I would agree that an average of 3 NM/minute is accurate.

And your calculations give a Ground Speed of 176 Knots.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4179 on: March 19, 2021, 12:59:47 PM »
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I didn't agree with a lot of our conversation. it was funny. we were both talking at the same time trying to get our points out...I have a bad habit of cutting in while someone is talking but we both did it this time  :rofl:

I don't think Texaco sold sectional maps....

Nonetheless, what I said about six radar plots every minute is accurate.

The six radar plots or "hits" per minute is correct.  In the 1971 time frame, radars with rotating antennas made a complete revolution six times per minute or once ever 12 seconds.  If the radar was interrogating your transponder, a little green light would flash on/off with ever hit or 12 seconds.  If a number of radars were interrogating your transponder, the little green light was flashing on/off all the time.
CORRECTION:  That 12 seconds should be 10 seconds.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4180 on: March 19, 2021, 10:41:13 PM »
I’ve noticed a discrepancy in the plotted FBI flight path. I was hoping someone might be able to provide an explanation.

There is point plotted to the northeast of Pearson Airport just outside of Vancouver. The next plot visible is the one adjacent to the I-5 bridge leading into Portland. The problem is that those two points are over 5 nautical miles away from each other which would require 305 to suddenly increase its speed to over 330 knots. A more reasonable explanation is that there is another missing minute. There should be a plot point midway between these two near where Marine Park is today.

Any ideas other than “The FBI flight path is totally wrong”?
« Last Edit: March 19, 2021, 10:42:41 PM by Chaucer »
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Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4181 on: March 19, 2021, 11:57:39 PM »
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I’ve noticed a discrepancy in the plotted FBI flight path. I was hoping someone might be able to provide an explanation.

There is point plotted to the northeast of Pearson Airport just outside of Vancouver. The next plot visible is the one adjacent to the I-5 bridge leading into Portland. The problem is that those two points are over 5 nautical miles away from each other which would require 305 to suddenly increase its speed to over 330 knots. A more reasonable explanation is that there is another missing minute. There should be a plot point midway between these two near where Marine Park is today.

Any ideas other than “The FBI flight path is totally wrong”?

Nice last sentence!    :rofl:
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4182 on: March 20, 2021, 12:35:53 AM »
330 knots is not going to happen in that configuration. it's a timing issue. I don't believe they flew the plane like a boat throttling up and down over waves. you can't reach 330 knots in the time frame you have and then slam on the brakes back to 165-170? all of these grounds speeds and changes are crazy..

The map isn't a black box. looking at the map you can see they exceed 3 miles. that doesn't mean the plane HAD to reach those plots. it's a timing issue or you need to look at the alternate path...
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4183 on: March 20, 2021, 12:54:04 AM »
Is it the 8:16 and 8:17 plots you are talking about?
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4184 on: March 20, 2021, 01:11:20 AM »
I have attached the picture below. Flyjack suggest that the plot points off to the west need to be shifted over to the east. They were errors. That would seemingly put the plot point that is on the I-5 bridge out over the water. This would also significantly shift the flight path as it approached Portland
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