Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 983970 times)

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4125 on: March 14, 2021, 09:04:38 PM »
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It doesn’t matter what we feel “comfortable” with or what we “think” or what we “accept”. It’s what we can prove.

And we can’t prove 8:13 is the jump time. All we can prove is that the jump occurred sometime after 8:12. It’s possible he jumped directly after the oscillations. It’s also possible it was several moments or minutes after.

It’s all guesswork.

It's not guess work. The exact time was noted by Soderlind which Rataczak says was 8:13. Moreover, the FBI has used the same time. Their search was based off of oscillations starting at 8:10 and running through to pressure bump at 8:13. Regardless, you are nowhere near the Columbia if you roll with the FBI Flight Path.

1. There is a difference between “oscillations” and “pressure bump”.

2. There’s no mention of a “pressure bump” in the transcripts or any time of a pressure bump in the 302s.

3. Rataczak has also given a range between 8:10 and 8:20.

So, yes, I think it’s guesswork. More investigation is needed, and hopefully more 302s and more information from Rat and others will allow us to zero in on an exact time.

Let's not play semantics here.

1) The oscillations refer to Cooper's time on the stairs as he was descending. Again Rataczak told me he could tell as he was walking down the stairs because they were lowering further into the airstream and creating more of a disturbance.

The term "pressure bump" is just a term used to denote the jump. Again, Rataczak referred to this being like a "diving board" springing back.

2) We know perfectly well what transpired whether the files use the term pressure bump or not.

3) You have to understand the context of the conversation relating the last communication with the jump. The important point being that this was during an interview which, by definition, was after the event. This doesn't change that during the event itself the precise time was noted.

No guess work here. We know what happened and when. The question is, where.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4126 on: March 14, 2021, 09:11:57 PM »
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I don't know if Bill made such statements or not

None of us know until Bill is confronted with these documents. highly unlikely they are referring to anything but the flight from Sea to Reno. the 24 and 25th mean nothing.
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4127 on: March 14, 2021, 09:19:07 PM »
Even with a time frame it's guesswork. exact coords and time would not be guess work if this were the case. it's always been reported as the best known area where Cooper bailed. Bill wasn't even certain himself. he's on record stating they didn't know if Cooper was still on the plane. lots of confusion surrounds all of this.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2021, 09:21:40 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4128 on: March 14, 2021, 10:38:53 PM »
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It doesn’t matter what we feel “comfortable” with or what we “think” or what we “accept”. It’s what we can prove.

And we can’t prove 8:13 is the jump time. All we can prove is that the jump occurred sometime after 8:12. It’s possible he jumped directly after the oscillations. It’s also possible it was several moments or minutes after.

It’s all guesswork.

It's not guess work. The exact time was noted by Soderlind which Rataczak says was 8:13. Moreover, the FBI has used the same time. Their search was based off of oscillations starting at 8:10 and running through to pressure bump at 8:13. Regardless, you are nowhere near the Columbia if you roll with the FBI Flight Path.

1. There is a difference between “oscillations” and “pressure bump”.

2. There’s no mention of a “pressure bump” in the transcripts or any time of a pressure bump in the 302s.

3. Rataczak has also given a range between 8:10 and 8:20.

So, yes, I think it’s guesswork. More investigation is needed, and hopefully more 302s and more information from Rat and others will allow us to zero in on an exact time.

Let's not play semantics here.

1) The oscillations refer to Cooper's time on the stairs as he was descending. Again Rataczak told me he could tell as he was walking down the stairs because they were lowering further into the airstream and creating more of a disturbance.

The term "pressure bump" is just a term used to denote the jump. Again, Rataczak referred to this being like a "diving board" springing back.

2) We know perfectly well what transpired whether the files use the term pressure bump or not.

3) You have to understand the context of the conversation relating the last communication with the jump. The important point being that this was during an interview which, by definition, was after the event. This doesn't change that during the event itself the precise time was noted.

No guess work here. We know what happened and when. The question is, where.
Making sure we use precise terms is not “playing semantics”. The term “oscillations” is not the same as “pressure bump”. The oscillations preceded the pressure bump.

Rat has made several statements regarding the time of the jump and they all end up in a 10 minute range.

The fact remains that we do not know exactly when the oscillations ended and the pressure bump occurred. We only know a period of time when the oscillations were occurring. Cooper could have jumped anywhere between 8:10 to 8:20.

Rat has made several statements regarding the time of the jump and they all end up in a 10 minute range.
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4129 on: March 14, 2021, 11:11:05 PM »
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One other thing:

Bill told me--as he has stated before--that the moment they felt Cooper jump (which he described as a diving board-type event) he (Bill) radioed Minneapolis and told them to mark the time/spot. Therefore, a precise time for the jump should have been recorded by Minneapolis.

Here is what is recorded in the teletype transmissions through the ARINC system.  The radio link would probably record these short messages about one to two minutes before the times listed in the teletype print outs.

8:05 PM - The flight crew reported that they had just talked to Cooper over the PA system and he said everything was okay.  This was the last contact with Cooper.

8:12 PM - The flight crew reported getting some oscillations in the cabin.  (He) must be doing something with the air stairs.

An entry in the "FBI Notes" states that 8:11 PM is probably the best time for Cooper jumping.

If there were no further oscillations, then Cooper jumped about 8:11 PM or 8:12 PM.

The above are plain documented facts and there is nothing to contradict them.  Even if Rataczak said some decades later that Cooper didn't even jump at all, these times are still valid.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4130 on: March 14, 2021, 11:23:19 PM »
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To be clear, Rataczak didn't say anything to me about east or west of V23. He just told me he was flying the jet because they didn't know what to expect with the airstairs down. He said they were in constant contact with Soderlind as well as Soderlind had patched in a Boeing test pilot (maybe Wallick) somehow.

Samuel Lewis "Lew" Wallick was a Boeing test pilot and was the project pilot for the Boeing 727.  He made the first flight of the 727 and flew many of the tests involved in getting it certified by the FAA. 
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4131 on: March 14, 2021, 11:40:03 PM »
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One other thing:

Bill told me--as he has stated before--that the moment they felt Cooper jump (which he described as a diving board-type event) he (Bill) radioed Minneapolis and told them to mark the time/spot. Therefore, a precise time for the jump should have been recorded by Minneapolis.

Here is what is recorded in the teletype transmissions through the ARINC system.  The radio link would probably record these short messages about one to two minutes before the times listed in the teletype print outs.

8:05 PM - The flight crew reported that they had just talked to Cooper over the PA system and he said everything was okay.  This was the last contact with Cooper.

8:12 PM - The flight crew reported getting some oscillations in the cabin.  (He) must be doing something with the air stairs.

An entry in the "FBI Notes" states that 8:11 PM is probably the best time for Cooper jumping.

If there were no further oscillations, then Cooper jumped about 8:11 PM or 8:12 PM.

The above are plain documented facts and there is nothing to contradict them.  Even if Rataczak said some decades later that Cooper didn't even jump at all, these times are still valid.
Again, “oscillations” are mentioned, not “pressure bump”. The oscillations were literally defined as “doing something with the stairs”, not “jumping”.

The oscillations didn’t necessarily end at 8:12. That’s simply when they weren’t mentioned again. Cooper could have jumped - thereby causing a pressure bump - any time after 8:12.
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Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4132 on: March 14, 2021, 11:50:02 PM »
My understanding is that the oscillations lasted one to two minutes. Again, this is when DBC is making his way along the airstairs and any wait time at the end of the airstairs.

The oscillations are followed by a pressure bump which denotes when DBC jumped.

The semantics I'm referencing relates to use of the term "pressure bump." Whether the FBI used the term or not is irrelevant. The fact is that the pressure literally did bump thereby creating a sensation in the ears and a bouncing of the dials on the instrument panel.

Rataczak states the pressure bump occurred at 8:13. Therefore, it seems very likely that Cooper actually jumped during the 8:13 minute. If that's not convincing enough, well then okay and it's certainly your prerogative.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4133 on: March 14, 2021, 11:51:29 PM »
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One other thing:

Bill told me--as he has stated before--that the moment they felt Cooper jump (which he described as a diving board-type event) he (Bill) radioed Minneapolis and told them to mark the time/spot. Therefore, a precise time for the jump should have been recorded by Minneapolis.

Here is what is recorded in the teletype transmissions through the ARINC system.  The radio link would probably record these short messages about one to two minutes before the times listed in the teletype print outs.

8:05 PM - The flight crew reported that they had just talked to Cooper over the PA system and he said everything was okay.  This was the last contact with Cooper.

8:12 PM - The flight crew reported getting some oscillations in the cabin.  (He) must be doing something with the air stairs.

An entry in the "FBI Notes" states that 8:11 PM is probably the best time for Cooper jumping.

If there were no further oscillations, then Cooper jumped about 8:11 PM or 8:12 PM.

The above are plain documented facts and there is nothing to contradict them.  Even if Rataczak said some decades later that Cooper didn't even jump at all, these times are still valid.
Again, “oscillations” are mentioned, not “pressure bump”. The oscillations were literally defined as “doing something with the stairs”, not “jumping”.

The oscillations didn’t necessarily end at 8:12. That’s simply when they weren’t mentioned again. Cooper could have jumped - thereby causing a pressure bump - any time after 8:12.

The oscillations stopped when Cooper jumped and, conversely, Cooper jumped just a second or two before the oscillations stopped.

The airliner was 23 DME miles (nautical miles) south of what is now named the Battleground VORTAC, and on the edge of V-23, at 8:18 PM.  Since the airliner had a ground speed of about 3 Nautical Miles per minute, this does not fit into your theory of a late jump or even jumping north of the Columbia River.
 

Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4134 on: March 15, 2021, 12:17:24 AM »
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I believe he has been quoted flying further east than 2 miles off center of V23...I think Bruce has the answer to that one..

Bill told me that the wind had blown them "east," and he figured they were in the eastern portion of V-23. I pressed him a bit on this and he was generally vague on the question of whether he was east-enough to get over the Washougal drainage. Nevertheless, Ralph Himmelsbach was adamant that Bill told him they were over the Washougal.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4135 on: March 15, 2021, 12:39:47 AM »
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My understanding is that the oscillations lasted one to two minutes. Again, this is when DBC is making his way along the airstairs and any wait time at the end of the airstairs.
The oscillations are only mentioned in the 302s form 8:10 to 8:12. That doesn’t mean that’s how long they lasted.
Quote
The oscillations are followed by a pressure bump which denotes when DBC jumped.

The semantics I'm referencing relates to use of the term "pressure bump." Whether the FBI used the term or not is irrelevant. The fact is that the pressure literally did bump thereby creating a sensation in the ears and a bouncing of the dials on the instrument panel.
I’m not arguing that point. I am merely pointing out the difference between oscillations and a pressure bump. The oscillations are not when Cooper jumped. The pressure bump is. There is not time for the pressure bump, therefore no time for the jump.
Quote
Rataczak states the pressure bump occurred at 8:13. Therefore, it seems very likely that Cooper actually jumped during the 8:13 minute. If that's not convincing enough, well then okay and it's certainly your prerogative.
He also later states that it was 5 to 10 minutes after last contact and then later 10 to 15 minutes after last contact. If you want to believe one data point and not others, then that’s certainly you’re prerogative.

My point remains that we do not know exactly when Cooper jumped.
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Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4136 on: March 15, 2021, 12:54:54 AM »
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The oscillations stopped when Cooper jumped
And there is nothing in the transcripts or 302s about when the oscillations stopped.

Quote
and, conversely, Cooper jumped just a second or two before the oscillations stopped.
There is absolutely no evidence for this. It is pure speculation on your part.

Quote
The airliner was 23 DME miles (nautical miles) south of what is now named the Battleground VORTAC, and on the edge of V-23, at 8:18 PM.
No, the time when the airline indicated it was 23 miles south of Battleground was 8:22, not 8:18.

Quote
Since the airliner had a ground speed of about 3 Nautical Miles per minute, this does not fit into your theory of a late jump or even jumping north of the Columbia River.
Yes, it does. Please see above.
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Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4137 on: March 15, 2021, 01:00:13 AM »
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He also later states that it was 5 to 10 minutes after last contact and then later 10 to 15 minutes after last contact. If you want to believe one data point and not others, then that’s certainly you’re prerogative.

My point remains that we do not know exactly when Cooper jumped.

You are still not understanding my point. Let me try one more time.

All he was recounting was that the time between the two events was 5-10 minutes. This is because at that point no one had reported to him that the last communication was at 8:05 and that his "mark your maps" comment was at 8:13.

It was merely a general reference of the time between the two events. It does not mean that the authorities hadn't marked precisely the time of each of the two events.

That's as far as I can go with this.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4138 on: March 15, 2021, 01:16:59 AM »
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He also later states that it was 5 to 10 minutes after last contact and then later 10 to 15 minutes after last contact. If you want to believe one data point and not others, then that’s certainly you’re prerogative.

My point remains that we do not know exactly when Cooper jumped.

You are still not understanding my point. Let me try one more time.

All he was recounting was that the time between the two events was 5-10 minutes. This is because at that point no one had reported to him that the last communication was at 8:05 and that his "mark your maps" comment was at 8:13.

It was merely a general reference of the time between the two events. It does not mean that the authorities hadn't marked precisely the time of each of the two events.

That's as far as I can go with this.
The “10 to 15 minutes” statement was giving to SA Carr about ten years ago. Also, to my knowledge, the 8:13 time is not on any official documented evidence. If it is, please share.

I agree, we have belabored this argument. I will still stand by my original statement which is we do not know exactly when Cooper jumped.
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4139 on: March 15, 2021, 01:27:56 AM »
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He also later states that it was 5 to 10 minutes after last contact and then later 10 to 15 minutes after last contact. If you want to believe one data point and not others, then that’s certainly you’re prerogative.

My point remains that we do not know exactly when Cooper jumped.

You are still not understanding my point. Let me try one more time.

All he was recounting was that the time between the two events was 5-10 minutes. This is because at that point no one had reported to him that the last communication was at 8:05 and that his "mark your maps" comment was at 8:13.

It was merely a general reference of the time between the two events. It does not mean that the authorities hadn't marked precisely the time of each of the two events.

That's as far as I can go with this.

Let me add my two cents to this.  Cooper is going to get off those stairs as fast as possible.

The wind chill factor alone was as much as 30 or 40 degrees below zero and he was simply not dressed to handle anything close to that.  There was no reason for him to do anything except walk down the stairs and jump.  He could have disposed of the brief case and anything else he wanted to throw away without causing any significant oscillations on the stairs.

There is no rational basis for a jump time outside the 8:11 to 8:13 time frame.