Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 983835 times)

Offline dudeman17

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4020 on: March 03, 2021, 05:30:55 PM »
I realize this is farfetched (?), but I can imagine a scenario in which Cooper died in the jump and WAS found. If Cooper either went in as a no-pull, or if he was injured in the landing, unable to hike out, and succumbed... I can imagine a scenario where he is found at some time by (a) hunter(s). After some thought/discussion, he/they decide to bury/dispose of all the evidence and keep the money. Farfetched, yeah, but possible.
 

Offline Parrotheadvol

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4021 on: March 03, 2021, 05:33:27 PM »
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I realize this is farfetched (?), but I can imagine a scenario in which Cooper died in the jump and WAS found. If Cooper either went in as a no-pull, or if he was injured in the landing, unable to hike out, and succumbed... I can imagine a scenario where he is found at some time by (a) hunter(s). After some thought/discussion, he/they decide to bury/dispose of all the evidence and keep the money. Farfetched, yeah, but possible.

After 50 years and very few clues, it’s not that far fetched.
 

Offline haggarknew

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4022 on: March 03, 2021, 06:15:18 PM »
Interesting, dudeman. I agree with Parrotheadvol, not that farfetched,  especially considering some of the other "stories" being peddled recently. The scenario you present deserves some consideration.
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4023 on: March 03, 2021, 06:31:27 PM »
Years back on the DZ, can't remember who, they posted an article about a skydiver lost in the Columbia in front of a lot of people. 3 came down in the water and two were saved. the third jumper was never found...
 

Offline dudeman17

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4024 on: March 03, 2021, 06:35:08 PM »
Shutter, it appears that you do not have the green square when you're on, like the rest of us. So we never know when you're lurking? Ha!
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4025 on: March 03, 2021, 06:36:09 PM »
I see it on...you guys can't? is my name showing in the bottom left on the main page?
« Last Edit: March 03, 2021, 06:37:17 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline haggarknew

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4026 on: March 03, 2021, 06:41:47 PM »
Nope although it does say "one hidden"
 
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4027 on: March 03, 2021, 06:42:32 PM »
Ok, I know what the deal is....fixing..
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4028 on: March 03, 2021, 06:49:48 PM »
Should be visible now?
 

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4029 on: March 03, 2021, 11:36:40 PM »
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Should be visible now?

Also, I posted a link to DZ for someone today and the post vanished. (at least I could never find it again). Is there something wrong with posting links to DZ here now? 
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4030 on: March 04, 2021, 12:35:30 AM »
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All,
I was having dinner with my science friend Bruce the other night and he asked about Cooper. I told him there was a big discussion about the flight path and the placard drift rate. Bruce is retired from JPL, created the first clear air turbulence instrument and was on the team that discovered the ozone hole. He described the boundary layer  over land (as opposed to water) as going from 0-3000 feet or so and it is in this layer that the winds typically are in a different direction from winds aloft. He said the way to answer the question is get the radiosonde data from those dates in that area and it would show the winds from ground to 12K+ feet or so. It turns out that the data is tricky to get and condense into readable form so I had to bribe him with a steak dinner and now we have the data!

The two closest locations were Salem just south of Portland and Quillayute Bruce said was just west of Seattle. They launch twice a day at 5pm and 5am so that is the data we have. I had him pull a second random day Nov 11 for comparison and you can see that the winds then were actually east near the ground. Nov 24 looks pretty consistent all the way down but seems to be more southerly than we had estimated. Now you can do a proper analysis. :)

Tom Kaye

Thanks to FlyJack, Tom Kaye's post on the radiosonde data is #1751, April 12, 2019, on this thread.

I have never been able to figure out how to include some links in replies so you will have to go to the original post.

Shutter, Andrade1812, Georger, Chaucer, and yours truly "Thanked" TK.  Aren't some of you now claiming you have never seen this post even though you replied to it?
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4031 on: March 04, 2021, 12:41:54 AM »
Thanks to georger I was able to see some of Tom's data on wind speed. According to that, the wind direction and wind speed were remarkably consistent from Seattle down to Portland - even at higher altitudes. This isn't anything new. Tom posted this a couple of years ago. What's interesting is that the wind direction was less from the southwest and more from the south. In fact, I'd say the wind was blowing at an angle of 250 or 260 degrees rather than the commonly held 220. Other historical data from Weather Underground support this:  the wind was blowing from the south around 6 pm and had slowly shifted to the south-southwest by 10 pm.

Wind speed was light at 10,000 feet but jumped dramatically at 8,000 feet before tailing off quite quickly the closer you get to the ground.

Not sure if this really affects much, but interesting to me nonetheless.

“Completely unhinged”
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4032 on: March 04, 2021, 12:49:18 AM »
Quote
Shutter, Andrade1812, Georger, Chaucer, and yours truly "Thanked" TK.  Aren't some of you now claiming you have never seen this post even though you replied to it?

You need to be specific in who you are referring to when you have multiple names in a quote. I have never made that claim. I can't speak for the other names since it wasn't relevant to me. If you are not sure, then you shouldn't post names of those not involved.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2021, 12:49:47 AM by Shutter »
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4033 on: March 04, 2021, 01:10:43 AM »
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Thanks to georger I was able to see some of Tom's data on wind speed. According to that, the wind direction and wind speed were remarkably consistent from Seattle down to Portland - even at higher altitudes. This isn't anything new. Tom posted this a couple of years ago. What's interesting is that the wind direction was less from the southwest and more from the south. In fact, I'd say the wind was blowing at an angle of 250 or 260 degrees rather than the commonly held 220. Other historical data from Weather Underground support this:  the wind was blowing from the south around 6 pm and had slowly shifted to the south-southwest by 10 pm.

Wind speed was light at 10,000 feet but jumped dramatically at 8,000 feet before tailing off quite quickly the closer you get to the ground.

Not sure if this really affects much, but interesting to me nonetheless.

Chaucer, I hate to have to ask you this, but have you ever heard of a "compass rose"?  If not, here is a brief tutorial for you. 

True North (which is not to be confused with Magnetic North) is labeled 000 degrees or 360 degrees which is the same thing here.  Going around a circle in a clockwise direction (oddly enough this is the same direction all the hands on a clock rotate, although I have seen exceptions to this), 090 degrees is labeled East, 180 degrees is labeled South, 270 degrees is labeled West, and 360 degrees is labeled North as is 000 degrees.

In your post above, you list the winds as coming from a more westerly direction, not more southerly direction, than the data supports.  Your claims about the wind velocity are not accurate either. 

A close look at the radiosonde data shows that the winds at 10,000 feet above sea level are essentially from 225 degrees, which is the southwest, and the velocity at that altitude is about 35 Knots.  The winds at lower altitudes do not decrease as fast as you suggest.

The FAA has excellent publications, which are downloadable and free, on their web page.  Some of those publications relate to aircraft navigation and some to aviation weather.  I suggest that you download them and give them a good study.  You might learn something.  Good luck.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4034 on: March 04, 2021, 01:23:40 AM »
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Thanks to georger I was able to see some of Tom's data on wind speed. According to that, the wind direction and wind speed were remarkably consistent from Seattle down to Portland - even at higher altitudes. This isn't anything new. Tom posted this a couple of years ago. What's interesting is that the wind direction was less from the southwest and more from the south. In fact, I'd say the wind was blowing at an angle of 250 or 260 degrees rather than the commonly held 220. Other historical data from Weather Underground support this:  the wind was blowing from the south around 6 pm and had slowly shifted to the south-southwest by 10 pm.

Wind speed was light at 10,000 feet but jumped dramatically at 8,000 feet before tailing off quite quickly the closer you get to the ground.

Not sure if this really affects much, but interesting to me nonetheless.

Chaucer, I hate to have to ask you this, but have you ever heard of a "compass rose"?  If not, here is a brief tutorial for you. 

True North (which is not to be confused with Magnetic North) is labeled 000 degrees or 360 degrees which is the same thing here.  Going around a circle in a clockwise direction (oddly enough this is the same direction all the hands on a clock rotate, although I have seen exceptions to this), 090 degrees is labeled East, 180 degrees is labeled South, 270 degrees is labeled West, and 360 degrees is labeled North as is 000 degrees.

In your post above, you list the winds as coming from a more westerly direction, not more southerly direction, than the data supports.
You're right. I should have said that the winds appear to be coming from 200 to 190. Appreciate the correction.

Quote
Your claims about the wind velocity are not accurate either. 
Yes, at 10,000 feet the wind speed was an average of 35 knots. By 5000 feet is was at 28 knots. At ground level it was at 13 knots. A decrease of 22 knots over 10000 feet seems considerable.

Quote
The FAA has excellent publications, which are downloadable and free, on their web page.  Some of those publications relate to aircraft navigation and some to aviation weather.  I suggest that you download them and give them a good study.  You might learn something.  Good luck.
I appreciate the suggestion. In return, I'd be happy to give you some books on the Zodiac Killer and the GSK. We can always learn something.

Thanks again, Bob.
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