Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 985334 times)

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3510 on: October 20, 2020, 05:00:39 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Again...

The documents prior to the newspaper report support it coming from 305. they explain it possibly came out after the stairs were opened and pressure pulled it off the wall. they wouldn't explain that if the drawings showed the placard on the fuselage.

Cinebar was not dismissed by part number..

And you are saying TK's analysis of the placard was wrong ??

Georger, as you well know the analysis I made for TK was extremely conservative and intended to be so.  This was so stated from the very beginning.

After TK came up with the actual measured winds aloft for the evening of the hijacking, EU provided me with better information on the size and weight of the actual placard.  The measured winds aloft were found to be higher than the winds aloft predicted by the weather service and provided to the pilots that evening.  The actual placard was lighter and I think a bit larger than the values I had originally used for the TK analysis.

The end result was that the predicted drift distance was about three times further than the values I came up with for the TK analysis.  Using the new drift distance estimate and TK's GPS coordinates for the placard find location, the placard would have separated from the airliner several miles west of the center line of V-23.  And the FBI flight path is well east of of the V-23 center line in that area.

FYI, if the airliner was planning to stay on V-23, it would have stayed on the center line of V-23 after turning toward Portland at the Malay Intersection.  IFR air traffic normally is required to be on the center line of airways unless otherwise cleared.  Since the airliner was well west of the center line of V-23, it is obvious that it was deliberately not following V-23 but was bypassing Portland on the west side.  The flight path it was following is what is now referred to as the Western Flight Path.

All of the above has been discussed any number of times both here and on DropZone.  I have repeatedly referred you and others to FAA publications that describe aeronautical navigation, air traffic control, aeronautical maps, and other such things.  But it is obvious that you have not made any effort to learn how things are actually done in the real world.

So neither you (Georger), Chaucer, or anyone else has a valid complaint on the flight path.  Who knows where you are coming from?   
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 05:03:22 PM by Robert99 »
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1024 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3511 on: October 20, 2020, 05:13:54 PM »
Quote
IFR air traffic normally is required to be on the center line of airways unless otherwise cleared.

They were cleared to go where ever they wanted..that's in the transcripts. rules and regs don't mean shit in this case..

Unless authorized by ATC, to operate an aircraft within controlled airspace under IFR, pilots must either fly along the centerline when on a Federal airway or, on routes other than Federal airways.

NOT directly on centerline...
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 06:08:48 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1024 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3512 on: October 20, 2020, 05:28:55 PM »
FJ, careful with wind data. ground winds mean nothing here..winds can change aloft and can differ with ground winds.
 

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3513 on: October 20, 2020, 08:22:47 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Quote
IFR air traffic normally is required to be on the center line of airways unless otherwise cleared.

They were cleared to go where ever they wanted..that's in the transcripts. rules and regs don't mean shit in this case..

Unless authorized by ATC, to operate an aircraft within controlled airspace under IFR, pilots must either fly along the centerline when on a Federal airway or, on routes other than Federal airways.

NOT directly on centerline...

When the airliner took off from SEATAC, it was already on the centerline of V-23.  The Seattle VORTAC, which defines V-23, was/is located between the two parallel runways at SEATAC.  The airliner took off to the south which was also the exact radial that determined V-23.

Both position reports that the airliner gave immediately after takeoff indicated it was on the centerline of V-23 even though the pilot's didn't use that term.  And there was no reason for it to deviate from the centerline of V-23 until it got to the Malay Intersection.

After passing Portland, the airliner reported (according to the ARINC transcripts) that it was at "23 DME miles south of Portland".  The word "Portland" used here refers to the Portland VORTAC which is now known as the Battleground VORTAC.  This position would be on the Western Flight Path and on V-23 but slightly west of the V-23 centerline.

All indications are that the airliner remained on the V-23 centerline during the remainder of its flight south until it reached the point in Northern California where it turned east toward Reno.

The flight crew did have authorization to deviate any way they needed to during the flight to Reno.  But the only place they apparently deviated from V-23 was on the Western Flight Path between the Malay Intersection and the Canby Intersections.  And I am absolutely certain they coordinated this with the Seattle ATC Center.  And I am also absolutely certain that the unredacted Seattle ATC radio transcripts will show this if they will ever be released by the FAA/FBI.   
 

Offline Chaucer

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1081
  • Thanked: 243 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3514 on: October 20, 2020, 08:52:24 PM »
I mentioned this earlier, but I’d like to bring it up again. I noticed a discrepancy in the V23 centerline. On the FBI yellow map, V23 passes approximately 2 miles to the west of Toutle. On Skyvector, V23 is shown going directly over the top of Toutle.

Is there an explanation for this difference?
“Completely unhingedâ€
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1024 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3515 on: October 20, 2020, 09:49:33 PM »
From the Battleground VORTEC to the Columbia via flight path is roughly 11 nautical miles. then from the north side of the Columbia to 23 miles DME is is roughly 14 miles. for a total of 25 nautical miles.

The asterisk mark is a problem with timing if not mistaken? that's beside the 8:22 mark for 23 miles DME.. the next entry is 8:52 claiming no contact with the hijacker in 55 minutes. that gives a time issue as well.

The map has error's in it and is not a carbon copy of the path. but it appears to be about a 2 nautical mile error from mapping it out rather quickly (hour)

Is this enough to move the whole path?
 

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3516 on: October 20, 2020, 10:17:17 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
I mentioned this earlier, but I’d like to bring it up again. I noticed a discrepancy in the V23 centerline. On the FBI yellow map, V23 passes approximately 2 miles to the west of Toutle. On Skyvector, V23 is shown going directly over the top of Toutle.

Is there an explanation for this difference?

You bet there is.  There was an extended discussion of this difference a number of years ago on DropZone.  Snowmann eventually made some maps to illustrate this.  To make a long story short, Toutle was simply plotted at a different location on more recent maps.  That is all there is to it.
 

Offline EU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1759
  • Thanked: 322 times
    • ERIC ULIS: From the History Channel
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3517 on: October 20, 2020, 10:18:19 PM »
Why does the path have to be moved at all? What if the path we see is that of the F-106s?

Isn't it interesting that the FBI Flight Path--which shows its first plot east of Centralia at 19:54--draws a straight line directly to McChord AFB which is where the F-106s launched?

Not to mention the crazy flight path in and around Vancouver and Portland.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

RFK
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1024 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3518 on: October 20, 2020, 10:22:15 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
I mentioned this earlier, but I’d like to bring it up again. I noticed a discrepancy in the V23 centerline. On the FBI yellow map, V23 passes approximately 2 miles to the west of Toutle. On Skyvector, V23 is shown going directly over the top of Toutle.

Is there an explanation for this difference?

You bet there is.  There was an extended discussion of this difference a number of years ago on DropZone.  Snowmann eventually made some maps to illustrate this.  To make a long story short, Toutle was simply plotted at a different location on more recent maps.  That is all there is to it.


Silver lake seems to line up...
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1024 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3519 on: October 20, 2020, 10:23:29 PM »
Quote
Isn't it interesting that the FBI Flight Path--which shows its first plot east of Centralia at 19:54--draws a straight line directly to McChord AFB which is where the F-106s launched?

Are we aiming from the ground prior to takeoff? it's not that crazy around Portland...just a sharp turn. you need to speak with those involved.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 10:25:35 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3520 on: October 20, 2020, 10:26:03 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
From the Battleground VORTEC to the Columbia via flight path is roughly 11 nautical miles. then from the north side of the Columbia to 23 miles DME is is roughly 14 miles. for a total of 25 nautical miles.

The asterisk mark is a problem with timing if not mistaken? that's beside the 8:22 mark for 23 miles DME.. the next entry is 8:52 claiming no contact with the hijacker in 55 minutes. that gives a time issue as well.

The map has error's in it and is not a carbon copy of the path. but it appears to be about a 2 nautical mile error from mapping it out rather quickly (hour)

Is this enough to move the whole path?

Nope.  The problem is the redactions to the Seattle ATC radio transcripts.  These redactions were made to prevent people from being able to determine where the airliner was at specific times.

As I have pointed out numerous times, if you want to see what the Seattle ATC radio transcripts should look like, just take a look at the Oakland ATC and Reno Tower radio transcripts.  And note that the only redactions in the radio transcripts are in the Seattle transcripts.
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1024 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3521 on: October 20, 2020, 10:28:22 PM »
That has nothing to do with 8:22 unless you want to claim it was just put there? redaction or not the time is 8:22 that you and everyone else seems to focus on with solving the case.
 

Offline Shutter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9300
  • Thanked: 1024 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3522 on: October 20, 2020, 10:30:00 PM »
The dots also have two stories..a radar operator says one thing and you say another.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 10:31:34 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3523 on: October 20, 2020, 10:32:33 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
That has nothing to do with 8:22 unless you want to claim it was just put there? redaction or not the time is 8:22 that you and everyone else seems to focus on with solving the case.

Isn't the 8:22 PM time given in the "FBI Notes" as the time that the airliner passed the word through the ARINC system (not the Seattle ATC system) that it was 23 DME miles south of the Portland VORTAC?
 

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3524 on: October 20, 2020, 10:36:41 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
I mentioned this earlier, but I’d like to bring it up again. I noticed a discrepancy in the V23 centerline. On the FBI yellow map, V23 passes approximately 2 miles to the west of Toutle. On Skyvector, V23 is shown going directly over the top of Toutle.

Is there an explanation for this difference?

You bet there is.  There was an extended discussion of this difference a number of years ago on DropZone.  Snowmann eventually made some maps to illustrate this.  To make a long story short, Toutle was simply plotted at a different location on more recent maps.  That is all there is to it.


Silver lake seems to line up...

Portland VORTAC (now known as the Battleground VORTAC) and the Mayfield Intersection (now known as the Malay Intersection) are at the same geographical positions today that they were at in 1971.  It is simply the town of Toutle that got replotted at a different location.