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EU,

1. I never said the panel wasn’t from the 305. I think it likely was.

2. You keep referring to these “hunting grounds”. You yourself have said that the hunting grounds was an assumption on your part. There is no reference to hunting grounds in the FBI memo.

3. Before you said the calculations you made indicated a drift of 7 or 8 miles and that was a conservative estimate. Now you are saying it indicates a more easterly path?

4. What 305 was doing around Portland has nothing to do with the panel at Cinebar.

I'm not saying that you said it didn't come from 305, I'm merely crafting an orderly argument starting with "the panel is from 305."

Hunting lands are not an assumption, they exist and are located east of Cinebar. I used the word "public" in a previous description. I suppose one could argue that this hunter was on private land somewhere else even though that seems unlikely given the large public hunting region right there.

Also, the 7-8 mile drift analysis was for the placard, not the fiberglass skirt. The fiberglass, which is much larger than the placard, would drift 1-2 miles according to my estimations.

Finally, the comment about the autopilot is separate and doesn't relate specifically to the skirt.

Actually, there is a conflict. the crew did report the nose dipping which implies the AP was off. the document didn't appear to have spoke with the crew. He was curious if it was on or not. the other document states the crew said it was on for a better part of washington or to that affect. it's normal procedure for reasons explained. the person in the document appears to be the one who examined the FDR looking for the bump. one was found at 8:09 in another document.

Actually, there is a conflict. the crew did report the nose dipping which implies the AP was off. the document didn't appear to have spoke with the crew. He was curious if it was on or not. the other document states the crew said it was on for a better part of washington or to that affect. it's normal procedure for reasons explained. the person in the document appears to be the one who examined the FDR looking for the bump. one was found at 8:09 in another document.

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Regarding the Cinebar panel find:

I have attached a map that demonstrates the distance from Cinebar to the assumed FBI flight path.  I measured the distance to various points along the FBI flight path as shown on the "yellow map".  I used the center of town as a reference since we do not know the exact location of the find; therefore, I would allow for a 2 miles radius around Cinebar as a margin of error.

I'm certain it is not perfectly exact, so please allow for a reasonable margin of error.

As you can see, the distance from the FBI flight path to Cinebar ranges from 9.7 to 26.5 miles. Using EU and R99's own calculations, this would seem to put the panel find within the range of the FBI flight path as 305 passed by Cinebar to the west.

Based on this, I think this calls into serious question the panel find as evidence of a western flight path (the distance for the panel to travel seems too far). Actually, it seems more in line with the conventional FBI flight path.

However, I encourage all of you to factcheck me, correct any errors, and draw your own conclusions. I'm prepared to be wrong about this!

Chaucer,

You have just flunked Map Reading 101.

I cannot find Cinebar on an aeronautical chart but can find Mossyrock.  Mossyrock is 11 statute miles EAST of the centerline of V-23. 

Your depiction of the FBI flight path is several miles WEST of the centerline of V-23.  You have Onalaska plotted well EAST of the FBI flight path while in fact it is about 1 statute mile WEST of the centerline of V-23.

You have the FBI flight path passing several miles south of Toutle while in fact the centerline of V-23 passes directly overhead of Toutle.

All indications, including two position reports, indicates that the airlines was tracking down the centerline of V-23 from SEATAC to the Malay Intersection.  The airliner was within a thousand feet of the centerline of V-23 the instant it left the ground at SEATAC (and for that matter the entire time that it was on the ground at SEATAC).

The so-called Western Flight Path describes what the airliner probably did immediately after passing the Malay Intersection.  And that is it continued straight south with respect to the grid lines until it was in the vicinity of the
Canby Intersection.  At no time would the airliner be more than about five statute miles from the western edge of V-23.

There is apparently no information available as to exactly where the fiberglass skirt was found in the Cinebar area.  So no definite conclusions can be drawn as to how far it drifted in the wind.  But the aerodynamics of this fiberglass skirt are going to be completely different from the aerodynamics of the placard.

Chaucer, in lieu of detention, you are directed (not asked or suggested!) to go to the FAA's web page and download their free publication on aircraft navigation.  Then read the damn thing!  Material in that publication will be on the absolute final on this matter.

The crew was quoted multiple times in newspapers of having to adjust the trim due to believing Cooper bailed? might be in the 302's as well..the autopilot can be used multiple ways vs one option. if they adjusted the trim the auto was off. if it was on the auto does it. the document I post states it was on most of the time in WA. and further south..I still don't know what this proves..

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The crew was quoted multiple times in newspapers of having to adjust the trim due to believing Cooper bailed? might be in the 302's as well..the autopilot can be used multiple ways vs one option. if they adjusted the trim the auto was off. if it was on the auto does it. the document I post states it was on most of the time in WA. and further south..I still don't know what this proves..

Any change in the trim would be small regardless if it was done by the pilots or the autopilot.  Cooper, the money, the parachutes, and anything else he had attached to him would weigh about 225 pounds while the airliner probably weighed something on the order of 150,000 pounds.