I apologize if I came off as an absolutist. I’m quite the opposite. You’re quite right. I should have chosen my words better. I’m a college professor and professional researcher. I deal in logic, reason, and probability - none of which are absolute.
Yes, I think the central flight path favored by the FBI is the most likely one. I think most would agree including many with greater knowledge about the case than myself. Further, I think the jump spot is very debatable. The pressure bump is a good clue, but I think he could have jumped anywhere from Ariel to the Portland airport.
My personal opinion is that the most likely explanation for the money ending up on Tena Bar is that it ended up there accidentally rather than intentionally placed. It was likely in the water prior to burial in the sand. If the money was in the water, then Cooper was most likely in the water as well since he was the last one seen with the money. If Cooper was in the water, then he likely landed in there moments after he jumped. An unexpected, cold water landing, at night, without proper equipment, with several extra pounds strapped to you, provides a low probability of survival.
Certainly, you can find more elaborate explanations, but then you begin slowly cutting your own wrists with Occam’s Razor.