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Another person with demonstrated avionics skills, says:

"I see nothing inconsistent between the info about placard find location and the
"FBI" flight path, largely because neither is precise and we also don't have precise info
on the atmospheric conditions at the applicable time and position."

The person above ran his own analysis equally complete to what R99 has run, or any other individual. There are just too many unknowns ... did the placard ice up or was it moisture loaded which would affect its trajectory. The aerodynamic options available are too many and unknown.  All of that said -

""I see nothing inconsistent between the info about placard find location and the
"FBI" flight path, largely because neither is precise and we also don't have precise info
on the atmospheric conditions at the applicable time and position."

I still haven't had time to redo the analysis using Tom's new information.  But I will get to it in the next few days and it will be more complex than the previous ones.

Your friend is right that neither the FBI flight path nor the placard analysis is precise.  However, I did a rather thorough analysis of the atmospheric conditions in the Portland/Vancouver area about 10 years ago and found that they were about two percent more dense than the standard conditions for a given altitude.

At Tom's suggestion, the effects of moisture on the placard were considered in the original analysis.  Believe it or not, there is information online about the effects of moisture on falling objects.  I'll comment on this further in the forthcoming analysis.

Yes - my source left some source material also:


AVAILABLE RESOURCES ABOUT FALLING PLATES/CARDS

"Chaotic dynamics of falling disks", Field and buds, avail at
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Actual doc URL:
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Cornell News re. the falling paper:
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LiveScience article:  You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Z. Jane Wang's Analysis of transitions between fluttering, tumbling and steady
descent of falling cards:

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Her research group site where multiple docs are avail:
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re. Falling Paper:
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Unsteady Aerodynamics of .... plates
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and:

[PDF]Free-Fall Rotation and Aerodynamic Motion of Rectangular Plates
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by AC Bustamante - ‎1968 - ‎Cited by 2 - ‎Related articles
Sandia Laboratories, Albuquerque ... The aerodynamic motion of rectangular plates observed in 18 free- fall drop tests is analyzed and described. In most of the drops, the plates autorotated; the autorotation was independent of the plates'.   

The above seems to have been taken down but I will send you a copy if you want it. Jane Wang's Analysis above comes highly recommended.
 

The card was damaged complicating things further. you could put the plane to the west end of the airway and still be in the ballpark.

It's likely Cooper tore it off the door in frustration. I'm going to make a card that will match the one found and see if it reacts any different. I doubt the terminal would of caused the damage or the force of exit?

I don't think the card could get iced either. wasn't cold enough at altitude where the rain would be. the cold temps were above the clouds.

Ive lost track of where they reported icing but they did ... is that in the same time frame as aft stair light going on  and the card being torn off .. in the Toutle area?

I thought the icing became an issue when they climbed over 10K to clear the Donner Pass area over to Reno.

9:28 which is just past Eugene they report "Engine anti-icing on for appreciable length of time, wing AI on intermittently"

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9:28 which is just past Eugene they report "Engine anti-icing on for appreciable length of time, wing AI on intermittently"

Thanks. OK, I think this is much to do about nothing. The placard at Toutle cannot be used to fix the flight path at Portland because there are just too many variables/unknowns involved. I think the most that can be done is to prove the plane was inside V23 as it passed near Toutle and that is about all that can ever be proved.
 

I absolutely disagree with this assessment.

The atmosphere that winter night was measured. It is going to have been relatively stable and consistent in the sense that it's not like the type of purely erratic weather behavior experienced during the summer heating periods that spawn tornadoes and other violent weather. Therefore, anything, even a basketball, dropped from 10,000 feet up is going to take a somewhat predictable path downward.

It is not necessary to determine precisely where the jet was--although that would be nice. Rather, all you have to focus on is the likelihood that the placard separated from the jet near the FBI's flight path. If you can walk away relatively certain that the jet should have been removed from the placard by several miles that is enough to suggest that the FBI flight path is incorrect.

I don't think a basketball would be the best thing to argue with 


.

Well, I would have to test them vs tell you what could or couldn't drop at any given direction or spot? you, me, everyone here has no idea when and where the card dropped. you, me, and everyone here has no idea how long it has been in the location found. we can guess but that doesn't mean it's a fact.