To lend more credibility to my “the placard is very important” claim, I am presenting the following information.
First of all, Sandia Laboratories did extensive research on free-falling rectangular plates in 1968 for the US government. A PDF copy of their report can be found at You are not allowed to view links.
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The report brings out some important info including that during their testing, which involved multiple drops from 2,000 feet and 10,000 feet, they demonstrated that all such objects eventually rotate and that this rotation along with ever-shifting access provides lift and causes the placards to move forward. In fact, the 10,000 foot drops showed the plates traveled 6,000 feet (over a mile) under static weather conditions. Moreover, it provides some beyond-my-pay-grade formulas to determine movement of such plates.
R99 used this report in the analysis he did for Tom Kaye on the placard find. Robert made five assumptions:
1) The placard was 6” X 6” = .25 sq. ft.
2) The placard weighed 1 ounce.
3) The wind was from 225 at 18 knots.
4) The jet was at 10,000 feet when the placard flew out the back.
5) The elevation of the placard find was 1,500 feet.
Utilizing this data R99 determined that the placard traveled “conservatively” 2.68 NM, in other words just over 3 SM.
Last night I closely reviewed pictures of the placard and asked him to revisit his distance based upon what I observed, which includes:
1) The placard was about 6” X 4” = .167 sq. ft.
2) The placard weighed about 1/3 of an ounce. (This is rough based upon the fact that it is 61% the size of a #10 business envelop, which when holding four 8.5” X 11” sheets of paper is just under 1 oz. according to the USPS.)
3) The wind average was approximately 24 knots.
4) The elevation of the placard find was approximately 1,300 feet (according to Google Earth).
Extrapolating these numbers merely in a linear fashion you arrive at a drift for the placard of 8-9 SM. Which, if you look on my 8:12 Arc Theory, puts it in the same location as my Western-most flight path and also in the same location as R99’s Maylay-Canby flight path theory.