R99's Flight Path Theory


This is my understanding of Robert99's theory that the Flight Path was over Tina Bar, or just to the west. His speculation is that the money find at Tina Bar requires that the money was deposited via the following scenario:

1. The money bag tied around Cooper's waist became separated, or part of the money was released, or all of Cooper and his money impacted in the environs of Tina Bar, possibly on Caterpillar Island, or just inland from T-Bar, such as in the ponds or levee area of the Fazio ranch.

2. Shortly afterwards, some hydrological event, such as heavy rains or flooding, transported the money bag into the Columbia River, and in 1974 the dredging operation did two things – first, it spit up the three bundles, and secondly it chewed up as few more bundles into the itsy-bitsy pieces that were later recovered in the fragment field.

3. All of the money was deposited onto the beach at T-Bar in a  huge mix of dredge spoils, which the Fazios then spread it around with their bulldozers. The fragments were buried several feet below the bundles, which were buried under only a few feet of sand.

4. The bundles were exposed in 1980, six years after the Army Corps of Engineers no longer placed dredge spoils on the shoreline of the Columbia. As a result, the sand at T-Bar began eroding. By the time of discovery, the sand layer above the three bundles had been stripped away sufficiently to nearly expose the bundles, which Brian Ingram found on Feb. 10. Two days later the FBI found the fragment field, which extended for a diameter of 40 feet, centered at the bundles' location.


R99's scenarios are supported by the following:

1. Captain Scott allegedly told Himmelsbach at his retirement party in 1980 that 305 was flying over Woodland, WA, which is west of Victor 23, the air corridor that the plane was presumably following.

2. The “believed Flight Path map,” supplied by the FBI is incorrect, as Shutter has shown in his flight simulation studies that 305 could not have hit the locations marked on the map at the times specified at the speed of 200 mph, approximately.

3. The work of Richard Tosaw generally follows R99's theories. Tosaw believed that DB Cooper and all of his stuff fell into the Columbia River, where the skyjacker drowned and all of the gear sunk to the bottom, including the money, later to be brought up by the dredging.

4. The many redactions of the flight transcripts suggest that 305 was not flying in Victor-23, where it was presumed to be, for reasons unknown.



R99's theories are not supported by the following:

1. Tom Kaye's theories, as expressed at the 2011 Symposium in Portland, fully supported the Victor-23 Flight Path. Kaye said that he had direct access to all the pertinent radar transcripts, such as SAGE, FAA Seattle Center, etc.

2. Bill Rataczak many pronouncements that he was flying east of V-23 (BAS interview), over the Washougal River Valley (Himmelsbach), or far to the east of V-23 and over the flanks of Mt. St. Helens, as intimated in his History Channel interview when he said that 305 was flying over terrain that was 5,000 foot in elevation at the time the skyjacker jumped.

3. Larry Carr's general acceptance of the Victor-23 scenario, as revealed in his DZ posts.

If I've got anything wrong, please let me know.

NO! NO! NO!  HOLD EVERYTHING!

I have got to run to an appointment right now with my eye Doctor and will respond to this later today as soon as my pupils get undilated a bit.

I checked the distance again on the sim from VOR to VOR. it appears to be accurate in DME miles, and timing.

Mapping out the path from Seattle to the Canby intersection is about 139 miles DME.
Mapping out the path straight down to the Canby intersection is 130 miles DME.

This why my timing shows an arrival time of 8:15 to Tina Bar. the FBI plotting shows some turns in the path, but not enough east or west to change the time. if the plane was to head due east, or west, then the timing would be different.

While flying the alternate path, I reach the Canby intersection at around 8:23. while flying the FBI flight path I come up short reaching the Canby intersection in that time frame due to the extra miles.

Seattle to the Toledo area has a lot of valuable information.

1) Takeoff time
2) time of reaching 7,000 feet
3) speeds 155-160
4) Flap settings
5) leveling off at 10,000
6) speeds 170-180
7) time reaching, or turning at Ed Carlson Field (Toledo)

Arriving at Ed Carlson Field at around 7:58 which is about 62 nautical miles. Then you must turn and head southeast to connect with V23. I pass Malay at around 8:00. flying straight down V23 to Malay is 64.4 miles DME, but you don't side step around Ed Carlson getting there, so the times are similar. This part of the path is harder to calculate since the speeds change during the flight. The 3 minute mile doesn't apply.

Flying from Malay to the Lewis river via FBI path is about 29 miles DME. Flying straight down further west in the Woodland area gives the same DME miles, so the plane would be in the Woodland area at the 8:10 position. Just as Scott claims. I believe he said the Woodland area? I gain a minute due to passing Malay at 8:00. flying straight to Malay, you arrive at 7:59.

I'm still not 100% on the area from the Lewis river down to the Columbia. We obviously have issues with timing. The plots exceed 3 miles, so testing is not complete.

At this point is the alternate path plausible? I think it's possible, if Cooper bailed at 8:15. but we have a lot of data that would have to be discounted for the path to exist.

I've heard, and read that they helped in certain area's of the map, but it might of been the jump map, I don't know.

I could take a guess and say the air force made the map, and they plotted the times using the flight data recorder.
that doesn't explain the added plots around Portland though...

Shut, what is the mileage from Malay to Canby using the straight line pathway?

Thanks.

67 nautical miles, or 22 minutes...

Carr made a post about the winds in the LZ....

The winds for that location are as follows:

wind direction wind speed height
225 degrees 20 knots 7,000
230 degrees 25 knots 5,000
235 degrees 20 knots 2,000
235 degrees 15 knots surface

If you buy my theory that Cooper was a novice jumper then he most likely deployed very soon after leaving the aircraft. If he jumped over Orchard or just south and deployed just out of the aircraft, I believe this would put him in the Washougal Water Shed.

He'd drift 20 miles in ten minutes?

Hmmm...

How do you get a time frame, or 20 miles? 

If he jumped over Orchard or just south and deployed just out of the aircraft, I believe this would put him in the Washougal Water Shed.

He would miss the watershed jumping from Battleground..

If he jumped over Orchard or just south and deployed just out of the aircraft, I believe this would put him in the Washougal Water Shed.

He would miss the watershed jumping from Battleground..

But, this is not the area Rataczak, Himmelsbach, and JT identified and JT searched - that area is far north of the area you are identifying. In fact the area you are identifying some would include in the Columbia drainage basin ... because everything in this area flows to .... the Columbia in time.