Poll

Do you believe Cooper lived or died. the option are below to cast a vote...

0% Cooper lived
6 (9.4%)
25% Cooper lived
4 (6.3%)
35% Cooper lived.
2 (3.1%)
50% Cooper lived
14 (21.9%)
75% Cooper lived
14 (21.9%)
100 Cooper lived
24 (37.5%)

Total Members Voted: 59

Author Topic: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case  (Read 1826673 times)

georger

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #705 on: April 08, 2015, 12:50:59 AM »
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Have to admit, when I first heard Kaye present the prop-snag hypothesis, I was incredulous. But...

Let's realize what Kaye's CS project accomplished:

1) Effectively disproved the Washougal Washdown theory. Kaye showed the Washougal was a poor transportation system for bundles of money, and bundles of money did not stay together for the trip. While it's still possible the entire bag was carried down the Washougal by floodwaters (as Kaye didn't test this), Kaye's other findings (flight path analysis) effectively end this theory.

2) The tie was likely Cooper's, and while few doubt this, Kaye further tied the tie to Cooper:

Quote
All of the stains examined showed elemental signatures of particles from safety matches similar to those shown in Figure 4. The stains, and in fact the Fig. 3 Comparison tie from the same period that had not been in storage for 40 years. Fewer particles are present on this tie even given its age. Fig. 3 Comparison tie from the same period that had not been in storage for 40 years. Fewer particles are present on this tie even given its age. vast majority of particles examined, had elemental compositions that were equivalent to match heads. This indicates that the owner of the tie was a smoker who did not typically use a lighter. Additionally, the type of match can be localized to paper book matches and not wood matches due to the lack of chlorine in wood matches [3]. These findings are completely consistent with the descriptions of D.B. Cooper as a chain smoker [4] that requested back the book of matches that the flight attendant, Tina Mucklow, used to light his cigarettes [5].

Thus, because of Kaye, we know the tie was worn frequently by a smoker who used book matches, not wood matches. This matches Cooper's description as a smoker who used book matches. While not definitive, it is a strong indication that the tie was not a thrift-store purchase or a stolen item.

3) Even if we find out unalloyed titanium was more common than Tom thought, the tie analysis is still invaluable as it shows the owner of the tie worked somewhere that machined unalloyed titanium, wearing a tie everyday. Even if this isn't helpful information in finding a suspect, it's damn helpful in eliminating suspects in a field with dozens of confessed Cooperites.

4) Kaye's analysis of the Tina Bar find is also invaluable. Even if Kaye is wrong about the money arriving before the '74 dredging, he conclusively proved Palmer was misled in his analysis as well. The clay layer was not caused by a dredge.

5) Kaye found no reasonable evidence to contradict the flight path or timing of the jump. Again, this does not conclusively prove the FBI flight path as correct, it does put the burden of proof on those who would adjust the jump's timing or flight path.

Kaye did not solve the Cooper case, but he did open up avenues of investigation. We now know the money had to stay in the canvas bag for a long period of time if there's any hope of it moving to Tina bar from farther up the Columbia. We can test how the Washougal and Columbia move a bag of money. We can test how the rubber bands will age inside the bag.

We can look at Cooper suspects and find out which ones match the particles found on the tie.

It's progress!

I agree with most of the above -

I am totally mystified by how the expert Palmer could have misread the strata vs. Tom who says he knows the correct reading. There are people who claim Palmer he didn't screw up and it is Tom who is wrong!. This should be an elementary matter - it now becomes very complex and fraught with drama!

The Palmer chart is simple and clear. On Palmer's chart there is a layer of cross-bedded sand at level B. Just below the upper active layer 'A' and just above Palmer's clay-lump layer 'C' he says was the dredging layer.

Tom took a photo of T_Bar strata - its on his web page. A cross-bedded layer is clearly visible and marked. The clay layer Tom seems to be talking about I also marked.

Is the cross bedded layer in Tom's photo the same as layer B in Palmer chart? Is the clay layer in Tom's photo the same as Palmer layer D?

And, will I have to live 697 years of age before all of this is cleared up?  :)
 
« Last Edit: April 08, 2015, 12:56:38 AM by georger »
 

Offline andrade1812

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #706 on: April 08, 2015, 01:45:28 AM »
Kaye's analysis seems more reasonable to me, prima facie. I wish I knew more about the Palmer report though.

To me, Palmer's conclusions suffer from a severe case of confirmation bias. There was a set conclusion, pushed by the FBI agents working the case. The evidence was fit into their narrative, and the result was the now widely discredited Washougal Washdown theory and the Palmer Report. Nothing contradicted the FBI narrative of the find, which affirms said confirmation bias.

And no, I'm sure we'll have this all settled by 2267...
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #707 on: April 08, 2015, 06:49:12 PM »
Where exactly did the Fazio's report starting the removal stage of the spoils. 50 yards out from where, the center? a pile that large needs space to maneuver around. did each spoil remain on the beach, or did they remove some of it? it appears to only be about 80 yards from the northern tip of the north spoil to the money location. didn't Palmer state they spoil material was gone, if so, and it wasn't that far down, then why is he stating this?

Am I missing something?
« Last Edit: April 08, 2015, 06:51:05 PM by shutter »
 

georger

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #708 on: April 09, 2015, 12:07:24 AM »
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Where exactly did the Fazio's report starting the removal stage of the spoils. 50 yards out from where, the center? a pile that large needs space to maneuver around. did each spoil remain on the beach, or did they remove some of it? it appears to only be about 80 yards from the northern tip of the north spoil to the money location. didn't Palmer state they spoil material was gone, if so, and it wasn't that far down, then why is he stating this?

Am I missing something?

Im confused - not sure where you are getting this?

91,100 cubic yards of fill was placed in two location on the Fazio side of the river, between 8-19 and 8-25, 1974. Those two piles are visible on the USGS photo(s) of Sept 1974 supplied to the FBI by a Waterways Maint. Enginner, JACK BECHLY, Civil Engineer Chief. The Fazios had the contract to spread the spoils at each location a total of 50 yards off center at each spoil location; that is 25 yards off center in both directions at both spoil sites for a total of fifty yards at each location. The spreading was to occur within two weeks but it took longer than expected for the wet spoils to settle (see USGS photos) so instead the Fazio finished the work within the third week.

No. You are getting this wrong. The Palmer Report says the "clay-lump-dredge-layer" is the dredging spoils! See Palmer strata chart attached again.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 12:10:49 AM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #709 on: April 09, 2015, 12:44:51 AM »
Ok, I understand completely about the two spoils, and I understand the amounts. this is an enormous amount of sand. they had to spread it a hell out a lot further out than 25 yards each way. that's a little over 4500 cubic feet per pile. that's about 4500 dump truck loads of sand per pile. the average dump truck holds 10 cubic feet. I've mentioned this before.

I don't know where I got side tracked thinking Palmer said that, but it's probably due to statements made in the past. perhaps Kaye's site, I'm not sure at the moment. I know Kaye states this in the video, but it was prior to that.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 12:48:57 AM by shutter »
 

georger

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #710 on: April 09, 2015, 12:49:02 AM »
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Kaye's analysis seems more reasonable to me, prima facie. I wish I knew more about the Palmer report though.

To me, Palmer's conclusions suffer from a severe case of confirmation bias. There was a set conclusion, pushed by the FBI agents working the case. The evidence was fit into their narrative, and the result was the now widely discredited Washougal Washdown theory and the Palmer Report. Nothing contradicted the FBI narrative of the find, which affirms said confirmation bias.

And no, I'm sure we'll have this all settled by 2267...

Ask any questions you want about the Palmer report and I will try and answer them ... Larry gave me permission to do this. That is one reason I am still here otherwise I was going to retire with Larry clear back in 2009! I am under the restriction that I cannot "quote directly" from the report. But I am free to talk about it and paraphrase from it.

As with the flight path issue and the flight tests, there was "no set conclusion, pushed by the FBI agents working the case." You have this all ass-back-wards! There were no "conclusions" because there was no "hard information" about anything in this case to form conclusions about!

It was the FBI dependent on others (experts) for advice and facts - not the reverse. And the FBI documents I have seen and the agents I have interviewed reflect this 100%; not the reverse.

In the case of the flight path, flight tests, and in all flight and drop related matters it was the FBI dependent on the US Air Force (McChord), Boeing, NWA and its people, and others .... not the reverse. It was those experts who set the agenda, usually defined the areas of research and data collection, etc., and formed the initial conclusions and set the direction of investigation ... not the reverse. The FBI had no agenda! The FBI was totally dependent on these experts, not the reverse.

And it was exactly the same in the case of the Ingram find and the Tina Bar excavation and in all of those matters. It was a hydrologist and a geologist and a few other experts who brought up the word "Washougal", not anyone at the FBI. Prior to 1980 nobody at the FBI ever uttered the word "Washougal", so far as I know, and there are no documents of newspaper reports, or anything else to suggest otherwise.

So, if it was the FBI pushing all of this 'who at the FBI' are you talking about? Show me a record or a newspaper report that confirms this ?

If you are saying Palmer had a "confirmation bias" show something that proves that? I could easily ask: 'if Palmer was wrong about his strata id's at Tina's Bar was he also wrong about his strata id's during his whole long career'?  Who has more time in the strata ID saddle - Palmer or Kaye!? 

And please understand, I am not defending Palmer vs. Kaye. I just believe you have to take Palmer's work very seriously and examine it as a credible piece of work, and if there are better facts such as Kaye claims to have, then you must have some 'evidence' and a better theory that resolves the discrepancy.

Here's part of the problem. Palmer did no lab work on his strata ID's. Kaye was not there. (Kaye has done no lab work on his strata ID's?) Is there anyone else who worked on identifying strata at or near to Tina's Bar say 1974-1985, who actually did lab work to support the strata they claim to have found there? Did Tom look for such a person, or people, to add foundation to his claims? If he did he doesn't mention it.

So you tell us: 'how is Palmer's work infected by 'confirmation bias' forced on Palmer by the FBI, and who at the FBI did this'? Are you thinking of Himmelsbach? (You may not know Himmelsbach as well as you think!)  :)

 :-\ 
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 01:19:57 AM by georger »
 

georger

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #711 on: April 09, 2015, 01:01:40 AM »
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Ok, I understand completely about the two spoils, and I understand the amounts. this is an enormous amount of sand. they had to spread it a hell out a lot further out than 25 yards each way. that's a little over 4500 cubic feet per pile. that's about 4500 dump truck loads of sand per pile. the average dump truck holds 10 cubic feet. I've mentioned this before.

I don't know where I got side tracked thinking Palmer said that, but it's probably due to statements made in the past. perhaps Kaye's site, I'm not sure at the moment. I know Kaye states this in the video, but it was prior to that.

(1) There is not one word in the Palmer report that I can find where Palmer says: "The dredging spoils were gone from Tina's Bar" in 1980". No such statement.

(2) Palmer identifies his layer (C) in his chart as "the clay-lump dredging" layer. (If it was gone, if he had said it was gone, why is he then turning around and showing it in his strata chart for Tina's Bar?)

(3) Yes! That a helluva a lot of sand! Hard to believe spreading all of that sand only 50 yards at each dumpsite would be sufficient, unless you were trying to build a small mountain and spreading up hill at 60* from both directions which frankly is idiotic and did not happen. That is one reason I think Tom is taking things out of context when trying to speaking literally about something that probably did not happen! Very likely the Fazio spread all of that sand out more than any 50 yards - I would!!  And there was nothing to prevent them from doing that. All Jack Bechly is talking about in his report is what the contract stipulated ... the minimum requirement stipulated in the Fazio's contract managers smile and a check gets cut to the Fazio! But for Tom to take this literally trying to disconnect the Ingram find from any dredging spoil pile ... is a stretch, in my opinion.

I agree with you until proven differently. "50 yards total" at both locations is probably not what happen as a practical matter for the guy sitting on the tractor spreading 'one helluva a lot of sand', and trying to get done to get back home to sip a few, then report by phone so everyone is happy and pictures will show the work and the check can get cut, etc. Maybe one of the Fazios is still alive to ask? But there is something wrong with the idea that those piles were only spread a total of 50 yards at each pile .... and if nothing else "how in hell do you do that as a practical matter!?"

Let me also point out the Ingram find is directly downstream of the north-most dredging pile. (I am beginning to repeat myself!)  ;)


« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 01:11:43 AM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #712 on: April 09, 2015, 01:15:38 AM »
Quote
Very likely the Fazio spread all of that sand out more than any 50 yards - I would!!

They had to of, they are claiming basically that they moved the spoil onto the shore/beach. the pile is wider than the amount claimed they spread. if the original pile was 10 feet high (just an estimate) it would have been over 10 foot high when they were done. they stayed inside the width of the spoil....it doesn't calculate....
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 01:17:44 AM by shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #713 on: April 09, 2015, 01:24:16 AM »
This is a good case, or reason to have this documented, and accessed on the new website. this discussion will be buried in a month. I'm sure you could write a full page, with photo's on the website that can be easily accessed and pasted here when needed. helps with the term "read the thread"
 

georger

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #714 on: April 09, 2015, 01:28:18 AM »
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Quote
Very likely the Fazio spread all of that sand out more than any 50 yards - I would!!

They had to of, they are claiming basically that they moved the spoil onto the shore/beach. the pile is wider than the amount claimed they spread. if the original pile was 10 feet high (just an estimate) it would have been over 10 foot high when they were done. they stayed inside the width of the spoil....it doesn't calculate....

Well, I happen to think they had to have too! I grew up on tractors and dozers etc. The tonnage Bechly is talking about had to go somewhere and it wasn't up into space on Pluto!  :) :) :) 

And to me the Ingram find is just a short hop and a skip downstream of .... guess what! ... the north dredging spoil pile. I mean if you found a body there at the Ingram find and he was all cut up and mashed with tire tracks on his back ...  would you discount the dredge spoils spreading then? I dont think so. [Newspaper Headline: Body found after hiding during 1974 dredging operation...expert says: Has nothing to do with the dredging in 1974!] :)

The problem is you have to prove it.

But, I do think Tom is being a little too literal about this.

If Al Fazio is still alive someone could ask him, if he remembers.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 01:30:14 AM by georger »
 

georger

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #715 on: April 09, 2015, 01:32:38 AM »
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This is a good case, or reason to have this documented, and accessed on the new website. this discussion will be buried in a month. I'm sure you could write a full page, with photo's on the website that can be easily accessed and pasted here when needed. helps with the term "read the thread"

well... I am working on something that might be valuable in such an archive, so let me read some more tonight then make a fresh coffee  and get on with my evening..


 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #716 on: April 09, 2015, 01:34:53 AM »
I believe Fazio is alive. perhaps a phone call would do the trick.

Even if you took a thousand cubic yards out, it's still 3500 truck loads! 4 feet down a long ways sound right to me. this was no easy task either. one tractor?
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #717 on: April 09, 2015, 01:37:29 AM »
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This is a good case, or reason to have this documented, and accessed on the new website. this discussion will be buried in a month. I'm sure you could write a full page, with photo's on the website that can be easily accessed and pasted here when needed. helps with the term "read the thread"

well... I am working on something that might be valuable in such an archive, so let me read some more tonight then make a fresh coffee  and get on with my evening..


You seemed a little skeptical about creating a website? I think it would help in many ways. nothing can be written over on the site, or lost unless we change something, but the information can be right at our fingertips without searching things out.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 01:38:33 AM by shutter »
 

Offline andrade1812

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #718 on: April 09, 2015, 01:54:58 AM »
Let me clarify exactly the thesis I think is subject to confirmation bias vis-à-vis the Palmer Report: That Cooper died in the jump from a no-pull or shortly thereafter from injuries sustained landing in rugged terrain. I don't know Himmelsbach, his attitudes and opinions in 1980 are beyond my ken. However, in his book he seems quite confident that Cooper died in the jump. I've seen newspaper articles from before the Tina bar find that show Himmelsbach leaning heavily towards a no-pull/ground injury death. FBI agents at the Tina Bar dig talk about finding Cooper's briefcase, finding money fragments three feet deep, pining for some kind of DNA testing to prove Cooper's corpse was in proximity to the money; anecdotes that point to a pre-determined conclusion. To me, that's a consistent narrative.

I don't have access to the Palmer report, so I can only deliver my opinion based on hearsay accounts of it. The only solid evidence I can submit here is Kaye's analysis of the Palmer report and his subsequent review of it. Since Kaye's work is publicly accessible, it's no surprise I accept it over a black box I can't see or read. But to be clear: I respect Palmer's credentials, but Kaye's work provides peer review showing Palmer's work may have been in error. And I can't ignore that.
 

Robert99

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #719 on: April 09, 2015, 01:55:47 AM »
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Ok, I understand completely about the two spoils, and I understand the amounts. this is an enormous amount of sand. they had to spread it a hell out a lot further out than 25 yards each way. that's a little over 4500 cubic feet per pile. that's about 4500 dump truck loads of sand per pile. the average dump truck holds 10 cubic feet. I've mentioned this before.


Shutter, are you talking about cubic feet of sand or cubic yards?  The numbers above don't check out on how much sand per pile, how many dump truck loads of sand per pile, and how much the average dump truck can hold.