Have to admit, when I first heard Kaye present the prop-snag hypothesis, I was incredulous. But...
Let's realize what Kaye's CS project accomplished:
1) Effectively disproved the Washougal Washdown theory. Kaye showed the Washougal was a poor transportation system for bundles of money, and bundles of money did not stay together for the trip. While it's still possible the entire bag was carried down the Washougal by floodwaters (as Kaye didn't test this), Kaye's other findings (flight path analysis) effectively end this theory.
2) The tie was likely Cooper's, and while few doubt this, Kaye further tied the tie to Cooper:
All of the stains examined showed elemental signatures of particles from safety matches similar to those shown in Figure 4. The stains, and in fact the Fig. 3 Comparison tie from the same period that had not been in storage for 40 years. Fewer particles are present on this tie even given its age. Fig. 3 Comparison tie from the same period that had not been in storage for 40 years. Fewer particles are present on this tie even given its age. vast majority of particles examined, had elemental compositions that were equivalent to match heads. This indicates that the owner of the tie was a smoker who did not typically use a lighter. Additionally, the type of match can be localized to paper book matches and not wood matches due to the lack of chlorine in wood matches [3]. These findings are completely consistent with the descriptions of D.B. Cooper as a chain smoker [4] that requested back the book of matches that the flight attendant, Tina Mucklow, used to light his cigarettes [5].
Thus, because of Kaye, we know the tie was worn frequently by a smoker who used book matches, not wood matches. This matches Cooper's description as a smoker who used book matches. While not definitive, it is a strong indication that the tie was not a thrift-store purchase or a stolen item.
3) Even if we find out unalloyed titanium was more common than Tom thought, the tie analysis is still invaluable as it shows the owner of the tie worked somewhere that machined unalloyed titanium, wearing a tie everyday. Even if this isn't helpful information in finding a suspect, it's damn helpful in eliminating suspects in a field with dozens of confessed Cooperites.
4) Kaye's analysis of the Tina Bar find is also invaluable. Even if Kaye is wrong about the money arriving before the '74 dredging, he conclusively proved Palmer was misled in his analysis as well. The clay layer was not caused by a dredge.
5) Kaye found no reasonable evidence to contradict the flight path or timing of the jump. Again, this does not conclusively prove the FBI flight path as correct, it does put the burden of proof on those who would adjust the jump's timing or flight path.
Kaye did not solve the Cooper case, but he did open up avenues of investigation. We now know the money had to stay in the canvas bag for a long period of time if there's any hope of it moving to Tina bar from farther up the Columbia. We can test how the Washougal and Columbia move a bag of money. We can test how the rubber bands will age inside the bag.
We can look at Cooper suspects and find out which ones match the particles found on the tie.
It's progress!
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