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Do you believe Cooper lived or died. the option are below to cast a vote...

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6 (9.4%)
25% Cooper lived
4 (6.3%)
35% Cooper lived.
2 (3.1%)
50% Cooper lived
14 (21.9%)
75% Cooper lived
14 (21.9%)
100 Cooper lived
24 (37.5%)

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Author Topic: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case  (Read 1832460 times)

FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1890 on: May 15, 2017, 12:58:41 AM »
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Not sure if I should post here or elsewhere, in Tina Bar, Evidence about case, Flight Path ... ? so guess I will reply here because my reply is for the quote above which showed up here. God am I lost!

I spoke about time and clocks in several posts. No takers on that. My posts about time and clocks was intended get to the core of this problem which is: what kind of analysis did the USAF and NWA do with their data - to arrive at the NWA LaCenter Quadrangle Search map followed by the FBI flight path map (the yellow map)? For example, was it a Bayesian analysis? You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login.  or something else? R99 may be able to speak to this central issue. The type of analysis used is directly connected to the accuracy of such matters as 'time stamps' and 'positions'. At Dropzone 377, Snowmman and others debated the accuracy of the radar system used at the time. We know that a computer was used to tag and correlate all the data they had.

The point of my question is: the type of analysis used relates to the accuracy of the time stamps predicted. The overlay of physical effects reported during the flight on the time stamp grid, identifies positional data as best they could discern it at the time.

So again what type of analysis was given the data at hand? Any care to hazard a guess?

The times on the ATC transcripts are accurate. as R99 pointed out they are used frequently for lots of things, including planes going down etc.

not so simple,,,

They may be accurate for the end of the TT communication process in minutes not seconds, they do not indicate the exact time oscillations were felt.
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Robert99

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1891 on: May 15, 2017, 02:16:21 AM »
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Not sure if I should post here or elsewhere, in Tina Bar, Evidence about case, Flight Path ... ? so guess I will reply here because my reply is for the quote above which showed up here. God am I lost!

I spoke about time and clocks in several posts. No takers on that. My posts about time and clocks was intended get to the core of this problem which is: what kind of analysis did the USAF and NWA do with their data - to arrive at the NWA LaCenter Quadrangle Search map followed by the FBI flight path map (the yellow map)? For example, was it a Bayesian analysis? You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login.  or something else? R99 may be able to speak to this central issue. The type of analysis used is directly connected to the accuracy of such matters as 'time stamps' and 'positions'. At Dropzone 377, Snowmman and others debated the accuracy of the radar system used at the time. We know that a computer was used to tag and correlate all the data they had.

The point of my question is: the type of analysis used relates to the accuracy of the time stamps predicted. The overlay of physical effects reported during the flight on the time stamp grid, identifies positional data as best they could discern it at the time.

So again what type of analysis was given the data at hand? Any care to hazard a guess?

The times on the ATC transcripts are accurate. as R99 pointed out they are used frequently for lots of things, including planes going down etc.

not so simple,,,

They may be accurate for the end of the TT communication process in minutes not seconds, they do not indicate the exact time oscillations were felt.

FLYJACK,

I don't think you understand what a time hack represents with respect to the flight path.  The Seattle ATC radio communications were probably recorded at the Seattle ATC with the times being embedded in the tapes.  The time hacks themselves do not tell you anything.  You have to look at the transcript to see what radio communications were going on at a given time.  Events such as the oscillations would have to be reported by the flight crew over the radio for them to be connected to a given time in the radio tapes.  To specify the location of the airliner, the flight path would have to be known as well as its ground speed and its location at a previous time so that its current location can be calculated.

If the airliner overflies a navigational aid, such as a VORTAC, its time over the aid would have to be reported to Air Traffic Control to create a time hack (or Time Over Station to be more exact) while the position at that time would be specified by the known VORTAC's location.
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Offline JLa

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1892 on: May 15, 2017, 08:20:14 AM »
Good morning everyone from the East Coast!

I've been monitoring for a while now and I guess this is my official "first post." First of all; thank you all for the research that you have conducted over the years! It has allowed my mind to be intuitive, imaginative, and most of all; inventive. It has also allowed me to decompress from work and school and for that...I am most grateful!  8)

Now with all of the formalities out of the way; I do have a question for 377 (and I guess for all of you if you'd like to chime in). The question is "how much legal weight would you put into the tie?"

Essentially...say for instance that the FBI develops a suspect and makes an arrest. The suspect (we can now call him "Old Man Jones") hires the best damn lawyer he can find to get cleared so he retains 377. During discovery, you realize that the FBI's key evidence is the tie.

Using your experience and knowing the history about the tie (chain of custody issues, general contamination issues over 40+ years, ect...) what percentage would you estimate of a prosecutor earning successful conviction on Old Man Jones? And why.

Stay creative everyone!

Jason

« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 08:21:18 AM by JLa »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1893 on: May 15, 2017, 08:30:49 AM »
Quote
And.. my DZ area is actually only about 10 miles N of the original jump zone, but I said go south from there and probability diminishes. So, you'd run into the original drop zone.

I seem to recall you originally had a time of 20:08 and 15 miles north of the original jump location?

we have a 15 mile gap, or 5 minutes between the last transmission and the report of the oscillation. if you calculate 3 miles per minute, what's that tell you? the only way to change these times vs distance is speed.

How do you arrive at 10 minutes?
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1894 on: May 15, 2017, 08:37:30 AM »
Quote
Now with all of the formalities out of the way; I do have a question for 377 (and I guess for all of you if you'd like to chime in). The question is "how much legal weight would you put into the tie?"

Welcome aboard Jason  O0

Personally, I'm not sure the tie has any weight when it comes to the court room. the tie was found after the fact, and can only be speculation that the tie belonged to Cooper. that would be from a legal standpoint. they might try and rule the tie out. not sure, so we will let 377 give the best answer...

The tie clip might change the view if the DNA can be proven to be Cooper's, I forgot about the clip....
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 08:40:33 AM by Shutter »
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1895 on: May 15, 2017, 08:50:38 AM »
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Quote
Not sure if I should post here or elsewhere, in Tina Bar, Evidence about case, Flight Path ... ? so guess I will reply here because my reply is for the quote above which showed up here. God am I lost!

I spoke about time and clocks in several posts. No takers on that. My posts about time and clocks was intended get to the core of this problem which is: what kind of analysis did the USAF and NWA do with their data - to arrive at the NWA LaCenter Quadrangle Search map followed by the FBI flight path map (the yellow map)? For example, was it a Bayesian analysis? You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login.  or something else? R99 may be able to speak to this central issue. The type of analysis used is directly connected to the accuracy of such matters as 'time stamps' and 'positions'. At Dropzone 377, Snowmman and others debated the accuracy of the radar system used at the time. We know that a computer was used to tag and correlate all the data they had.

The point of my question is: the type of analysis used relates to the accuracy of the time stamps predicted. The overlay of physical effects reported during the flight on the time stamp grid, identifies positional data as best they could discern it at the time.

So again what type of analysis was given the data at hand? Any care to hazard a guess?

The times on the ATC transcripts are accurate. as R99 pointed out they are used frequently for lots of things, including planes going down etc.

not so simple,,,

They may be accurate for the end of the TT communication process in minutes not seconds, they do not indicate the exact time oscillations were felt.

FLYJACK,

I don't think you understand what a time hack represents with respect to the flight path.  The Seattle ATC radio communications were probably recorded at the Seattle ATC with the times being embedded in the tapes.  The time hacks themselves do not tell you anything.  You have to look at the transcript to see what radio communications were going on at a given time.  Events such as the oscillations would have to be reported by the flight crew over the radio for them to be connected to a given time in the radio tapes.  To specify the location of the airliner, the flight path would have to be known as well as its ground speed and its location at a previous time so that its current location can be calculated.

If the airliner overflies a navigational aid, such as a VORTAC, its time over the aid would have to be reported to Air Traffic Control to create a time hack (or Time Over Station to be more exact) while the position at that time would be specified by the known VORTAC's location.

Exactly, the timestamps don't tell you exactly when the oscillations were initially felt by the crew
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1896 on: May 15, 2017, 09:30:27 AM »
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And.. my DZ area is actually only about 10 miles N of the original jump zone, but I said go south from there and probability diminishes. So, you'd run into the original drop zone.

I seem to recall you originally had a time of 20:08 and 15 miles north of the original jump location?

we have a 15 mile gap, or 5 minutes between the last transmission and the report of the oscillation. if you calculate 3 miles per minute, what's that tell you? the only way to change these times vs distance is speed.

How do you arrive at 10 minutes?

Those timestamps via transmissions do not express those actual event times or plane location. They represent the end of the transmission. Everyone overstates the meaning of the timestamp. It doesn't represent event time, it represents end of transmission.

I originally said 20:06/07 only to reference the point on the "assumed" map, I see that was confusing because I never used time and doesn't represent actual time but just ta point on the map. I was only trying to indicate a geographical map reference not a time reference. So ignore the time and look at the geographical point it represents on the map...

So, accounting for drift, timestamp process/communication error to actual start of oscillations, I asked where COULD the plane be at 20:08 leaving Seattle to determine if my analysis fits within your time analysis. It looks real close... but I don't know.. Definitely N of Merwin.

I pointed to a zone about 15 miles N of Merwin and said WORK SOUTH, everyone seems to forget that..

The original map went N of Merwin approx 10 miles from my target LZ but I said work south form there so you run into the most northern end of original LZ.

Essentially, all I said was start about 10 miles N the original LZ and work South, the further South the lower the probability as that means more time passed as DBC waited to leave the opened Airstairs.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1897 on: May 15, 2017, 09:56:41 AM »
In order to change any time frames of the flight path you need to provide an alternate flight path to backup this theory. a chain of events (not just time) need to occur.

Once the plane leaves the ground a series of events occur. you need to provide the information from start to finish in order for any theory to become plausible...what time did the plane takeoff, speeds, locations etc.

When the plane leaves the ground at 7:37/36 (it's been a while) a certain set of events happen. I don't follow the 20:10 location, but the calculations, as well as the simulation put the plane where the map has stated that location. in order for me to go outside of those perimeters, I must change certain events. those would be time & speed. then you have an alternate set of facts.

A documented 5 minute gap is embedded in time. you don't even have that correct. you are stating 10 miles, which is a little over 3 minutes between the transmission and the oscillation. 

was the placard on the plane at 20:05, where is the proof either way?
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 09:58:47 AM by Shutter »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1898 on: May 15, 2017, 10:14:27 AM »
Carr believes that an error was made with the LZ. he believes that they relied on the oscillation vs the pressure bump when they calculated the original jump point. if this is correct, you are also going off the oscillation vs the pressure bump. the pressure bump is not on the transcripts.....two events occurred...
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1899 on: May 15, 2017, 10:23:06 AM »
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Carr believes that an error was made with the LZ. he believes that they relied on the oscillation vs the pressure bump when they calculated the original jump point. if this is correct, you are also going off the oscillation vs the pressure bump. the pressure bump is not on the transcripts.....two events occurred...


You don't understand,

I am NOT using the timestamps at all.. they are not event precise enough to locate the plane in space.

So, I simply ask again, where was the plane at 20:08? (or range N and S)


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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1900 on: May 15, 2017, 10:25:58 AM »
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Carr believes that an error was made with the LZ. he believes that they relied on the oscillation vs the pressure bump when they calculated the original jump point. if this is correct, you are also going off the oscillation vs the pressure bump. the pressure bump is not on the transcripts.....two events occurred...


You don't understand,

I am NOT using the timestamps at all.. they are not event precise enough to locate the plane in space.

So, I simply ask again, where was the plane at 20:08? (or range N and S)

In order for your theory to work, I believe it's you that should know where the plane is?

The time stamps have a great deal in understanding where the plane was. they had radar tapes at one point, they had a mixture of tools that worked together in getting the best known locations. we are missing critical information, but you are going against everything based on the location of the placard...

You need to present a flight path to give an alternate theory......
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 11:08:00 AM by Shutter »
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1901 on: May 15, 2017, 11:18:43 AM »
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Carr believes that an error was made with the LZ. he believes that they relied on the oscillation vs the pressure bump when they calculated the original jump point. if this is correct, you are also going off the oscillation vs the pressure bump. the pressure bump is not on the transcripts.....two events occurred...


You don't understand,

I am NOT using the timestamps at all.. they are not event precise enough to locate the plane in space.

So, I simply ask again, where was the plane at 20:08? (or range N and S)

In order for your theory to work, I believe it's you that should know where the plane is?

The time stamps have a great deal in understanding where the plane was. they had radar tapes at one point, they had a mixture of tools that worked together in getting the best known locations. we are missing critical information, but you are going against everything based on the location of the placard...

You need to present a flight path to give an alternate theory......

No I don't.

My analysis avoids timestamp/event match to come up with an LZ.

I am asking for YOU to provide the planes location (or range) based on YOUR analysis to determine IF it actually does conflict with my starting LZ zone and I suspect it DOES NOT or is very very close..

but you refuse to back up your time/location analysis... and want me to do it for you

Essentially, you are claiming the DBC LZ can't be North of the original LZ line.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 11:21:58 AM by FLYJACK »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1902 on: May 15, 2017, 11:31:14 AM »
This is your theory, not mine. you don't use time stamps, but want time frames...my conclusions were very close to the original map. some positions had more mileage than others, but it basically jives. my conclusions don't revolve around the placard. my conclusion were whether or not the path can be flown, not where the placard was, or where Cooper bailed.

Your theory is about moving events, or creating them...you ignore basic proof, or evidence....

I'm growing tired of this back and forth. it reminds me of someone. go ahead and present your theory, as they say in the television show "Shark Tank, I'm out"
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1903 on: May 15, 2017, 11:42:38 AM »
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This is your theory, not mine. you don't use time stamps, but want time frames...my conclusions were very close to the original map. some positions had more mileage than others, but it basically jives. my conclusions don't revolve around the placard. my conclusion were whether or not the path can be flown, not where the placard was, or where Cooper bailed.

Your theory is about moving events, or creating them...you ignore basic proof, or evidence....

I'm growing tired of this back and forth. it reminds me of someone. go ahead and present your theory, as they say in the television show "Shark Tank, I'm out"

I did present it, you didn't understand it..

You are really claiming that an LZ N of the original LZ IS impossible based on timestamps. I was trying to get you to rethink that, you got frustrated and refuse.

Is it possible that DBC landed N of the original LZ line.. Yes or No?
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Robert99

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1904 on: May 15, 2017, 12:12:50 PM »
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This is your theory, not mine. you don't use time stamps, but want time frames...my conclusions were very close to the original map. some positions had more mileage than others, but it basically jives. my conclusions don't revolve around the placard. my conclusion were whether or not the path can be flown, not where the placard was, or where Cooper bailed.

Your theory is about moving events, or creating them...you ignore basic proof, or evidence....

I'm growing tired of this back and forth. it reminds me of someone. go ahead and present your theory, as they say in the television show "Shark Tank, I'm out"

I did present it, you didn't understand it..

You are really claiming that an LZ N of the original LZ IS impossible based on timestamps. I was trying to get you to rethink that, you got frustrated and refuse.

Is it possible that DBC landed N of the original LZ line.. Yes or No?

FLYJACK,

The answer to your question is no.  You cannot determine location without time.  You simply don't understand what "time" represents.  I suggest that you visit the "Time" entry on Wiki and get some idea of what time is and how it is used.  I think you will find  that entry quite informative.
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