Poll

Do you believe Cooper lived or died. the option are below to cast a vote...

0% Cooper lived
6 (9.4%)
25% Cooper lived
4 (6.3%)
35% Cooper lived.
2 (3.1%)
50% Cooper lived
14 (21.9%)
75% Cooper lived
14 (21.9%)
100 Cooper lived
24 (37.5%)

Total Members Voted: 59

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Author Topic: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case  (Read 1832344 times)

FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1830 on: May 12, 2017, 03:25:57 PM »
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At what point to we take anything of value, when it doesn't fit a theory?

Tbar....wrong money
LZ...wrong location, further north.
Cooper was bald, short, purple eye's..


was it really Northwest airlines, or TWA?

I believe it's possible the dredge put the money on the beach, and it's possible that Cooper landed in the river, but I can't state that as fact, or try and push it on people....

I am not claiming it as fact... Is that something that actually has to be said with every post.. then 95% of the comments need a disclaimer..

I said start there (LZ) and work South..  I just used inference to assume that he would have left the plane 15-45 seconds after the placard based on new knowledge of its use/operation. Using the Placard location that puts his LZ about 1-2 miles South of it. Since we don't know the precise location of the plane during the oscillation, using the timestamp alone is unreliable.

DBC failed to get the main stair control to work then talked to pilots.. returned to Airstairs and was successful, red light went on panel.

Ask yourself, how long after pulling off the placard/door and releasing the Airstairs would it take for him to exit or wait to exit? My opinion 15-45 sec.  The more time he waits, the less likely to be the case.

I am trying to make DZ fit events according to the placard location, you are trying to make events fit timestamp. << this is what has been done for 45 years. I am taking a different approach based on new info.

Just a different approach. One isn't necessarily more valid. The area I pointed out is still within the area generally accepted, albeit extremely North end.

Your inferences are not his. Your inferences about his inferences may not be valid.

I dont see anything about him getting the stairs out and the placard leaving the plane that requires him to engage in a mental process something like: "Oh! Stairs are now usable. I must bail immediately!". The data suggests time passed between Cooper getting stairs out and him jumping - thats the whole point!

The time stamps are an independent measure. The time stamps don't exist because of inferences Cooper is making. The time stamps exist because of clocks. Coopers actions fit within the independent framework of clocks, not the reverse.

I think I see what you are inferring..

What hard data suggests a the exact time lag between Airstair deploy and jump.

I only said start there and move south, that means the most Northerly point, highest probability.. the longer he waited the lower the probability.

If you guys disagree fine, I am sticking with exactly with what I said.

That LZ is the highest probability based on DBC leaving 15-45 sec after Airstair deploy then move south and probability goes down progressively.

What hard data suggests a the exact time lag between Airstair deploy and jump.

Answer: the clocks and the radio reports. And probably other radio data with the company we do not have!

But beyond and above all of that: your inferences about what Cooper did and inferred are not data! They are nothing more than pure speculation about what you would vs. what actually happened. That point needs to be made very clearly, son! 

The earliest he left would be 15 seconds after the stair deployment, as the time/wait increases the probability diminishes. Start there and work south,,  that is absolutely reasonable.

That is is the foundation of my analysis. There is ZERO data to pinpoint the precise location of the plane when he left but we do have the location of the placard when he activated the Airstairs.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1831 on: May 12, 2017, 03:32:56 PM »
The transcripts are not rock solid they have problems as well but are the best known evidence with time periods vs location. the location IS in question, but it should be beyond the 8:10 time frame. the plane would have to travel much slower to match your theory.

Fact: Cooper was on the plane 8:05
Fact: the transcripts time of oscillation 8:10 (possibly on the stairs)
Fact: the pilot states that Cooper bailed 5-10 after the last contact
Fact: The crew claim it was just before Portland suburbs.

You seem to allow the 8:05/06/07 position, but not the 8:10 position?

I think the known evidence points to Cooper bailing somewhere after crossing the Lewis river...
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 03:33:57 PM by Shutter »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1832 on: May 12, 2017, 03:40:04 PM »
we have several things working against us...the military was tracking the plane, ATC was tracking the plane. they did pull the flight data from the plane and at one point had direction and speeds. then you have the time stamps of the radio transcripts. this is a lot to over come and claim he jumped 10 miles north of the calculated LZ.

I can't place Cooper at the river's edge, so my theory is sitting on a shelf until proven otherwise...
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1833 on: May 12, 2017, 03:51:10 PM »
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The transcripts are not rock solid they have problems as well but are the best known evidence with time periods vs location. the location IS in question, but it should be beyond the 8:10 time frame. the plane would have to travel much slower to match your theory.

Fact: Cooper was on the plane 8:05
Fact: the transcripts time of oscillation 8:10 (possibly on the stairs)
Fact: the pilot states that Cooper bailed 5-10 after the last contact
Fact: The crew claim it was just before Portland suburbs.

You seem to allow the 8:05/06/07 position, but not the 8:10 position?

I think the known evidence points to Cooper bailing somewhere after crossing the Lewis river...

FACT: Those facts do not support the exact location of the plane when DBC jumped.

Forget I ever mentioned the timestamps, they were not used in my analysis. I added the 8:06/07 afterward as a reference as he left after talking to pilots, we don't know the precise location of the plane at the exact time of that transmission.

All I am doing is using the placard location to locate the plane vs stair release event, then establishing the highest probability of an LZ. Working south from there probability drops as time on plane after stair release increases.

There is no arg here, it is just an analysis from another angle.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1834 on: May 12, 2017, 04:05:10 PM »
When you calculate the timing of the plane with the speeds given during the flight the plane simply can't appear where you wish it to appear.

The plane takes off at 7:36, several different speeds are given on the transcripts. the map shows the times. calculations, and simulations put the plane in the area's marked on the map. I arrive at the turning point over Toledo/Ed Carlson Field KTDO dozens of times I find myself turning, or close to turning over KTDO at 7:59. I also pass over the Lewis river at around 8:10 and change...over and over I get the same results.

Now, in order to meet your requirements, I can slow the plane down, going against known evidence, or takeoff earlier, going once again against known evidence to reach the area at 8:10
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 04:06:37 PM by Shutter »
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1835 on: May 12, 2017, 04:17:35 PM »
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When you calculate the timing of the plane with the speeds given during the flight the plane simply can't appear where you wish it to appear.

The plane takes off at 7:36, several different speeds are given on the transcripts. the map shows the times. calculations, and simulations put the plane in the area's marked on the map. I arrive at the turning point over Toledo/Ed Carlson Field KTDO dozens of times I find myself turning, or close to turning over KTDO at 7:59. I also pass over the Lewis river at around 8:10 and change...over and over I get the same results.

Now, in order to meet your requirements, I can slow the plane down, going against known evidence, or takeoff earlier, going once again against known evidence to reach the area at 8:10

Your analysis is perfectly valid, mine doesn't rely on any modelling or flight variables.

My analysis avoids the possible clock timestamp error.

Forget about the time I stated, that was post analysis to give a reference to the generally accepted map/timeline. There is no verification for its accuracy.

Clearly, the jump was after DBC spoke to the pilot.

Forget time for now, can we get a precise location for the plane when DBC last spoke to the pilots?

« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 04:35:41 PM by FLYJACK »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1836 on: May 12, 2017, 05:55:24 PM »
Quote
My analysis avoids the possible clock timestamp error.

were not talking about a windup clock here? this is pretty solid times. ignoring them will lead to failure. this is something you can't get past, or you could claim they made the whole thing up? this is as good as video catching a crime on tape, very hard to dispute. your analysis seems to ignore a lot of things...if the time wasn't there you would have more room for error. you also can't claim the time of 06/07 due to error's? you are basically stating Cooper jumped somewhere around the placard, time unknown....
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1837 on: May 12, 2017, 06:53:49 PM »
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Quote
My analysis avoids the possible clock timestamp error.

were not talking about a windup clock here? this is pretty solid times. ignoring them will lead to failure. this is something you can't get past, or you could claim they made the whole thing up? this is as good as video catching a crime on tape, very hard to dispute. your analysis seems to ignore a lot of things...if the time wasn't there you would have more room for error. you also can't claim the time of 06/07 due to error's? you are basically stating Cooper jumped somewhere around the placard, time unknown....

Besides being only in minutes, not seconds, do you have evidence that the time on the machine was 100% correct and accurate to the conversation. I am making a point, you are assuming.. I don't know how accurate it was. It may be, it may not be. My analysis just gets around possible errors.

I am only really saying DBC most likely jumped 15-45s after Airstair deployment AND as you move south from that point (1-2 miles south of Placard loc) the probability diminishes. << this is not unreasonable. I said start there and move south, there really is no disputing this logic. It is clearly not factual but by inference based on the placard location.

My analysis would be only incorrect if the placard location was wrong. It could be..

Think about it, you struggle to get the stairs down for some time, you get them down, how long do wait before exit. 1 min, 2 min, 5 min, 10 min?? Where did he jump?

Essentially, the jump probability point diminishes as time passes.. beyond Airstair deployment





« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 07:01:28 PM by FLYJACK »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1838 on: May 12, 2017, 07:31:05 PM »
I'm done....
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1839 on: May 12, 2017, 08:13:05 PM »
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I'm done....

ever run your sim with a 5 min time error,,
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georger

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1840 on: May 12, 2017, 11:44:04 PM »
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I'm done....

Im done too ... will just ignore SlyJack from now on.

Except to once again present the attached. Note passage beginning: "Time correlation from the above ....". It's self explanatory. Time of course refers to clocks and comparisons of clocks. Elsewhere in the cover sheets to the NWA analysis it speaks about computer analysis ... which could have included comparison of the various clocks active during the hijacking (especially the northern part where drop was suspected).  How many clocks were active? I can think of at least five, maybe seven that could have supplied data. For this reason it may be that the time stamps on the NWA analysis are the most accurate part of the analysis, based of course on a multi variant analysis of clocks.

And with that, good luck. Gone.   
« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 11:46:39 PM by georger »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1841 on: May 13, 2017, 12:52:26 AM »
He has a right to present what ever he wishes, but can also expect to be confronted. we have a 5 minute gap between Cooper and the oscillation, that's fact. his theory would be plausible if we didn't have such a solid time frame. you need to go all the way back to the beginning with a complete set of alternate facts. it boils down to the takeoff time. that's the only thing I can see that could disrupt what follows after that point. even that is pretty much covered.

This is all very aggravating to anyone trying to figure out what the hell happened after the plane left SEA...

 
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1842 on: May 13, 2017, 11:11:55 AM »
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He has a right to present what ever he wishes, but can also expect to be confronted. we have a 5 minute gap between Cooper and the oscillation, that's fact. his theory would be plausible if we didn't have such a solid time frame. you need to go all the way back to the beginning with a complete set of alternate facts. it boils down to the takeoff time. that's the only thing I can see that could disrupt what follows after that point. even that is pretty much covered.

This is all very aggravating to anyone trying to figure out what the hell happened after the plane left SEA...

I really don't think you guys understand what I said/meant.

-----------------------------

I don't think that will ever happen, Flytrap.  You argue just for the sake of arguing.  Reminds me of someone else we used to have around here.....
MeyerLouie
« Last Edit: May 13, 2017, 05:49:22 PM by MeyerLouie »
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1843 on: May 13, 2017, 02:59:41 PM »
Yes, it's north of Merwin, how far, I don't recall at the moment.

What needs to be pointed out is the fact of the simulation can give a best estimate only. I can't reproduce every single thing they did in the flight. it's impossible. I went by the given time frames, altitudes, and speeds. I also put winds aloft into play. I was able to match the speeds, including ground speeds. I believe I still have some of the simulations saved. the sim has a black box that can tell me things needed., in the replay I can also stop at any given point for any reason...
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FLYJACK

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Re: Clues, Documents And Evidence About The Case
« Reply #1844 on: May 13, 2017, 07:58:28 PM »
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Yes, it's north of Merwin, how far, I don't recall at the moment.

What needs to be pointed out is the fact of the simulation can give a best estimate only. I can't reproduce every single thing they did in the flight. it's impossible. I went by the given time frames, altitudes, and speeds. I also put winds aloft into play. I was able to match the speeds, including ground speeds. I believe I still have some of the simulations saved. the sim has a black box that can tell me things needed., in the replay I can also stop at any given point for any reason...

The way I analyzed this the time wasn't used but location was based on placard. Time = events not location.

Getting the most northern possible location for 20:09.. can bring the two together. There may be an intersecting point. I suspect north of Merwin..
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